FEW SIDES CAME through unscathed, some teams’ World Cup campaigns already look like they’re in trouble, while others have reminded us of their class.
While it is dangerous to read too much into World Cup warm-up games, there’s no doubt that everyone has been watching everyone else for hints of what’s to come when the pressure is on.
Thankfully, the warm-ups are now finished and the main event gets underway in just 10 days’ time.
Andy Farrell’s Ireland will have been analysing Romania, Tonga, South Africa, and Scotland in particular depth ahead of their Pool D campaign, with some cases for confidence but also a few causes for concern.
Romania
The Oaks have had a dire few weeks and will be genuine minnows. Of the teams set to play in this World Cup, only Namibia and Chile are ranked lower than 19th-placed Romania. The Romanians have enjoyed a win apiece during six previous World Cup campaigns but their form suggests that could be a stretch this time.
Previous head coach Andy Robinson resigned from his role last December but the Romanians appointed Eugen Apjok as his successor and finished third in this year’s Rugby Europe Championship to suggest they would bounce back.
However, this month has gone poorly. They lost their first warm-up game to the USA, who won’t be part of the World Cup, on a 31-17 scoreline before suffering heavy defeats to Georgia and Italy.
The Romanians conceded 17 tries in those two games against the Georgians and Italians, while giving up a staggering 30 linebreaks and making just four themselves. Some of their defensive effort wasn’t up to Test standard and there must be serious concerns now about taking on attacks as good as Ireland, South Africa, and Scotland’s.
There has been an injury toll too, with vastly experienced back row Mihai Macovei, who is a Test centurion and was one of their co-captains, and wing/fullback Paul Popoaia, who started all the Rugby Europe Championship games this year, ruled out of the World Cup through injury.
As they get set to open against Ireland in Bordeaux on 9 September, one has to fear for Romania.
Tonga
Toutai Kefu’s side have welcomed some big-name additions into their camp over the last year or so, including All Blacks Charles Piutau, Vaea Fifita, and Malakai Fekitoa, as well as ex-Wallabies lock Adam Coleman, who will debut at the World Cup.
However, they have lost one high-profile newcomer to injury during the warm-ups, with former Australia fullback Israel Folau missing out on the World Cup. Ex-All Blacks centre George Moala picked up a five-game suspension for a tip tackle, meaning he will miss Tonga’s games against Ireland, Scotland, and South Africa before being available against Romania.
Furthermore, former Connacht second row Leva Fifita dropped out of contention for the World Cup after finally finding himself a new club, with his ‘medical joker’ contract with French side Oyonnax impossible to turn down.
The Tongans made a fine start to their pre-season when they beat Australia A, with Piutau at the heart of their strong performance, but they were well beaten by Fiji in their next game. The Tongans subsequently came close to a stirring win away to Japan, but then dropped off notably for a 34-9 defeat to Samoa.
Since then, the ʻIkale Tahi have had two wins over Canada, who won’t be at the World Cup. The Tongans don’t play on the opening weekend of the tournament, instead having to wait until 16 September for their first Pool B game against Ireland.
There is undoubtedly talent within the Tongan squad but they haven’t yet shown signs of being a consistent, cohesive team. Another intense training block before facing Ireland may help but there haven’t quite been the warning shots of, say, Japan before the 2019 World Cup.
South Africa
The Springboks started the Rugby Championship like a runaway train in July, steamrolling the Wallabies in a dominant, disciplined six-try win with a team missing some of their star names.
A week later, with most of their front-liners involved, the Boks were hit by a stunning early All Blacks blitz to trail 17-0 after 17 minutes. Rassie Erasmus and Jacques Nienaber’s men did wake up thereafter but it was a resounding 35-20 loss in the end.
The Boks wrapped up their Rugby Championship campaign with an error-strewn 22-21 win over Argentina, then showed a bit more of their class in a return game against the Pumas.
The South Africans were ruthless against a very weak Welsh team two weekends ago, scoring eight tries in total. Then the Boks delivered their warm-up pièce de résistance last Friday night, pulverising the All Blacks with their thrilling, frightening new 7/1 bench split.
Before that game, it had felt like Erasmus and Nienaber were happy enough for the Boks to be simply tipping along. There was team rotation throughout and they are clearly focused on peaking at the right time again. But last weekend, there was a clear determination to make a statement and they certainly delivered that.
New out-half Manie Libbok has shown signs of growing into the role in the absence of previous incumbent Handré Pollard, but there is still some uncertainty over his ability to nail the pressure moments. Libbok’s steady performance last weekend will have helped.
Pollard was not named in the World Cup squad due to injury, as applied with centre Lukhanyo Am and lock Lood de Jager. Many people expect the Boks to call on at least one of those experienced figures at some point as injury replacements. Pollard is now back in training but that trio remain outside the official 33-man squad for now.
These warm-up games have seen the Boks continue with their increased focus on attacking from deep and stringing more passes together in attack, although last weekend was a more traditional South African performance. Their increased tactical flexibility is helpful. While their squad includes many familiar faces from their 2019 campaign, there are some fresh faces including 20-year-old wing/centre sensation Canan Moodie.
There are a couple of compelling rivals with big ambitions at the World Cup, but the Springboks will be difficult to dethrone. Their clash with Ireland on the third weekend of the tournament should be a battle royale.
Scotland
Gregor Townsend’s men had an impressive start to the Six Nations this year but were disappointing against an injury-hit Ireland when there was a Triple Crown on the line at home in Murrayfield.
It looked like that might be the end of the Townsend era but even after the SRU had been searching for a successor, he extended his deal through until 2026. This pre-season appears to have seen the Scots refresh their approach, for the better.
One-time captain Stuart Hogg retired in rather sudden fashion before the World Cup squad had been even named and that allowed Blair Kinghorn to take over at fullback, where he has looked dangerous in attack.
Townsend seems to have gone back to his roots in encouraging the Scots to play a wide-wide style of rugby in which their instincts are thoroughly backed. That is an ideal set-up for a man of Finn Russell’s talents. He looks happy and ready to have a fun World Cup, having clashed with Townsend in the past.
The Scots opened their warm-ups with a win over Italy before launching an impressive comeback to beat France’s second-string side even after a red card for tighthead prop Zander Fagerson.
The Scots backed that up by nearly doing something similar against les Bleus‘ first-choice team a week later in Paris, losing 30-27 to a 79th-minute Thomas Ramos penalty. They completed their prep by pulling clear of Georgia in a five-try victory last weekend.
The Scots put a big emphasis on getting fitter this pre-season and have pointed to their second-half performances as a result of that. They have a massive opener against the Springboks in two weekends’ time, while they face Ireland in their final pool game on 7 October.
Ireland have an excellent record against the Scots, winning the last eight meetings, but this match-up promises to be compelling.
