THIS IS IT. Make-or-break time for a group of rugby players who have put their hearts and souls into making the World Cup. Sure, it was only in the back of their minds at some points in recent years, but it was always there.
Ireland have won Grand Slams, Six Nations, and series in places like New Zealand and Australia, but there’s still something extra special about a World Cup. That’s not only for teams who have been the also-rans but dream of making history. Those who have lifted the William Webb Ellis trophy will tell you this competition is different from anything else.
And so, dreams will be fulfilled and shattered in the coming days as Andy Farrell makes the final decisions on his 33-man World Cup squad, which will be publicly announced at 4.30pm on Sunday.
It seems unlikely that anyone will be shocked by Farrell’s selection. He has operated with a consistent, settled core of players who understand Ireland’s systems deeply. That’s been the basis of their excellent form over the last two seasons.
With positive signs around the fitness of Dan Sheehan and Rónan Kelleher, the dilemma at hooker was short-lived, while Farrell also indicated that number eight Jack Conan and loosehead prop Dave Kilcoyne – the other two currently injured players – are available for selection in his final squad.
The question now is one that has been there since the start of pre-season, namely whether Farrell and co. will go with a 19/14 split of forwards and backs or an 18/15 split that gives Ireland an extra option in the backline.
When Cian Prendergast was handed the starting number eight jersey against England last weekend, there was a strong sense that Farrell had already made up his mind and would be going with a 19/14 split that would see Prendergast and lock Joe McCarthy definitely travelling, while Farrell would choose between Kilcoyne and Jeremy Loughman as his third loosehead prop. Kilcoyne is surely favourite there having been in the squad since the start of pre-season.
Sticking with the 19/14 viewpoint, that would likely leave Stuart McCloskey, Keith Earls, Jacob Stockdale, and Ciarán Frawley fighting it out for just one remaining spot in the squad. Given the fact that back three cover would otherwise be light, Earls would be most people’s favourite in that case.
So when McCloskey, Stockdale, and Frawley weren’t involved last weekend against England, it was tempting to think their races were run.
And then the team news for Saturday’s final warm-up clash against Samoa in Bayonne dropped. There was McCloskey returning at number 12 alongside Robbie Henshaw in the centre.
There had been some anticipation that Henshaw would come back in at 12 alongside Garry Ringrose or maybe Jimmy O’Brien but instead, Henshaw is paired with McCloskey, who gets his second start in Ireland’s three warm-up games.
The 18/15 split is evidently still on the cards for Ireland, with McCloskey going as a fourth centre along with Henshaw, Bundee Aki, and Ringrose.
Several other nations have picked four centres in their squads, and some of them even as part of 19/14 splits, albeit in most cases at least one of the midfielders can also play elsewhere. Ringrose can cover the wing but only really in an emergency, while Henshaw’s experience as a fullback seems to be consigned to history.
We know that the midfield has involved lots of attrition for Ireland – rarely have all their centres been fit at the same time, so depth has been key. Farrell has also picked a centre at number 23 on several occasions in the recent past, with Aki and Henshaw both filling that slot, so it might make sense to have four of them.
As pertinent as anything else is the fact that McCloskey has put together an impressive body of work with Ireland. Initially, he seemed destined to be a peripheral figure under Farrell – as he was under Joe Schmidt before – making appearances against Georgia, Japan, and the US only when others were missing.
But McCloskey exploded back into an important role last season, starting all three November Tests and then three of the Grand Slam games before the other three centres became available again. McCloskey’s performances in green have been strong and he has only tasted defeat once in his 13 caps, which was on his debut against England in 2016.
Given what he did last season, it would be cruel for McCloskey to miss out. Indeed, when you weigh up potentially bringing him over Prendergast, it seems clear which one of them has more of a chance of impacting a big World Cup game for Ireland.
Of course, there’s a scenario where Prendergast, McCarthy, McCloskey, and Earls could all be part of Ireland’s squad, but that would involve Farrell taking a risk with his depth chart somewhere else.
All along, there has been a widespread presumption that Ireland will pick three looseheads, three hookers, three tightheads, three scrum-halves, and three out-halves, giving them strong cover in those specialist positions.
Perhaps there’s a surprise to come from Farrell in that regard. Maybe he will ask experienced loosehead Cian Healy to also cover tighthead. He possibly believes Finlay Bealham could cover across to loosehead. The Springboks only picked five props. Maybe Farrell thinks he could do with only two scrum-halves or just two out-halves.
And yet, something like that still feels like a risk that Ireland don’t need to take. Right now, it looks like a simpler call between bringing an extra forward for 19/14 or an additional back for 18/15. And there’s the comfort of France being so close to Ireland, meaning any injury call-ups can be integrated as soon as possible during the World Cup.
In that vein, we have to underline that any injuries against Samoa tomorrow could rip up Farrell’s plans for Sunday’s announcement.
Here’s hoping he has a full deck to choose from when finalising what will be a strong 33-man squad whatever way he goes.
- This article was updated at 12.15pm to reflect the fact that Ireland will now name their squad on Sunday.
