THE PRO14 HAS just got interesting. That wasn’t a joke by the way.
From now until 19 March, every point in Conference A counts. Leinster, seemingly unstoppable, serial collectors of bonus-point victories, may have fate in their own hands but that won’t mean diddly-squat if they don’t take advantage of it.
Ahead of this evening’s game away to Scarlets (7.35pm, eir Sport), Leo Cullen and Stuart Lancaster’s side are a point adrift of Ulster, who have played a game more. Now, when you bear in mind that the Scarlets are coming into this one on the back of home and away defeats to Cardiff Blues, whereas Leinster showed their mettle to defeat Ulster, and then Munster, well you don’t need to be a clairvoyant to figure out what’ll happen in Llanelli.
Unbeaten away from home since April 2019, winners of five of their last six games against Scarlets, the only mitigating factor which could explain an upset this evening is the absence of 17 Irish internationals from the Leinster match-day squad.
Sure, that’s a big deal, but not as significant as the disappearance of 11 Welsh players from the Scarlets set-up. Pound for pound, the Welsh side are suffering more and if you don’t believe that statement, look at who has been left behind at Leinster camp while the big boys enter the Ireland bubble.
For starters, there’s Tadhg Furlong. Until his recent calf injury, he was commonly introduced to people as one-of-the-world’s-best-tightheads, Tadhg Furlong. He still may well be that but we won’t know for definite until about 9pm tonight, when he clocks out from his first shift back at the workplace after nearly a year away from it.
So, you’ve Furlong; you’ve Ireland’s grand slam winning flanker, Dan Leavy; you’ve the 2014 Six Nations winner, Dave Kearney, who is in better form now than he was even then; you’ve the discomfort of losing Johnny Sexton and Ross Byrne softened by the presence of Harry Byrne, who just simply looks a class act.
We could go on. Ryan Baird is being talked about as a new James Ryan. Not long ago, Jack Conan was being talked about as Ireland’s best No8. Andy Farrell may rate Jamison Gibson-Park higher than Luke McGrath right now but you can’t say for certain that Cullen or Lancaster does. Why else, then, did McGrath start ahead of Gibson-Park last week?
He was brilliant, too. Sean Cronin had a similarly fine game against Ulster. Leinster have Cronin as a bench option tonight as well as Scott Fardy, who only has the experience of starting a World Cup final on his CV. Now look at the Scarlets’ replacements, just about household names in their own house.
So, everything points to another Leinster victory, an easy one at that.
Except sport has a habit of being unpredictable. Those Scarlets replacements we’ve disrespected in the paragraph above, some of those could be playing for a new contract, their livelihoods at stake. Nothing motivates a player as much as the fear of being put on the dole.
You can bet your bottom dollar Leinster will be told this ahead of leaving Dublin Airport, especially when you remember how their backline kiddies got schooled by Connacht earlier this month.
Speaking to the media earlier this week, Lancaster referred to the squad’s ‘positive mindset’ five times in the space of one answer to a question. It was the thing that made him happiest about last Saturday’s win.
“We had a slow start and defensively we were in the back foot against their attack which did well,” Lancaster said. “We were slow to set lineout-wise which led to the try; the aerial game as well as other little things (were going against us) but we kept at it, we stayed with a positive mindset.
“That was reflected when the ball (from JJ Hanrahan’s 40th minute penalty) hit the post at half-time. Rather than kick the ball out they said, ‘right, we’re going to try and get something out of this now’ and we did so a 10-6 score from a 13-3 was a big moment.
“That was the most pleasing thing because to go down there and go 10-0 behind it is easy to try and muscle your way back into the game and I thought we did it in a positive way even if it wasn’t perfect. We found a way to win.”
They usually do and – to return to our original point – they need to. Ulster await and Ulster will have greater access to their first-choice XV throughout the Six Nations when the outcome of this conference will effectively be decided. Already we’ve seen how one surprising defeat, at home to Connacht, can change the complexion of a season. Another one or two could end it. Leinster have to be on guard.
Scarlets: Johnny McNicholl; Tom Prydie, Tyler Morgan, Steff Hughes (capt), Ryan Conbeer; Sam Costelow, Dane Blacker; Phil Price, Marc Jones, Javan Sebastian, Morgan Jones, Sam Lousi, Blade Thomson, Dan Davis, Uzair Cassiem.
Replacements: Taylor Davies, Kemsley Mathias, Werner Kruger, Tevita Ratuva, Carwyn Tuipulotu, Will Homer, Angus O’Brien, Paul Asquith.
Leinster: Max O’Reilly; Cian Kelleher, Liam Turner, Ciaran Frawley, Dave Kearney; Harry Byrne, Luke McGrath (capt); Peter Dooley, James Tracy, Tadhg Furlong, Ross Molony, Ryan Baird, Josh Murphy, Dan Leavy, Jack Conan.
Replacements: Sean Cronin, Ed Byrne, Tom Clarkson, Jack Dunne, Scott Fardy, Hugh O’Sullivan, David Hawkshaw, Jamie Osborne.
