IMAGINE A MUNSTER squad without any of Peter O’Mahony, Conor Murray, Keith Earls, Andrew Conway, Simon Zebo, Dave Kilcoyne, Stephen Archer, and Joey Carbery.
They’ve all been important senior figures within the group for years, some of them for well over a decade, but there’s a possibility most of them could have left by the start of next season.
Between the eight of them, you’re looking at 1,213 Munster caps of experience.
Earls and Conway have already retired this season, of course, while Carbery’s exit at the end of this campaign has been confirmed. Two-time World Cup winner RG Synman is also leaving for Leinster.
There is still a chance that Munster might retain a few of them but as things stand, the futures of O’Mahony, Murray, Zebo, Kilcoyne, and Archer are uncertain, with their contracts due to expire at the end of this season.
O’Mahony and Murray are both on IRFU central contracts until the end of this campaign. Given that Murray hasn’t been a first-choice player for Ireland in recent times, it’s expected that the IRFU won’t extend the 34-year-old’s central deal.
34-year-old O’Mahony has been a first-choice starter for Ireland through until last October’s World Cup quarter-final against New Zealand and he could to continue to be an important figure for Andy Farrell’s side, particularly after the retirement of Johnny Sexton.
However, it’s thought that the IRFU may not extend O’Mahony’s central deal either, meaning Munster would have to offer both him and Murray provincial contracts to keep them. It would make a huge dent in their already stretched provincial budget.
It’s understood that Munster haven’t made provincial contract offers to O’Mahony or Murray at this stage. While both have been huge figures within Munster over the past 13 or 14 years, the province has to weigh up whether it is worth absorbing their salaries, which are currently much higher than most provincial players.
Murray has been battling with Craig Casey for the number nine jersey over the past few seasons. It was Murray who started the URC final back in May, but Casey has been the starter in the Champions Cup this season and looks like he’s ready to kick on as the first-choice number nine. That could mean Munster letting Murray move on.
The situation with O’Mahony appears to be complicated. His ongoing importance to Munster was underlined by his return from injury for last weekend’s win away to Toulon. O’Mahony was key to a much-improved Munster lineout, which has been shambolic at times recently, and was good around the pitch.
While O’Mahony is no longer the official Munster captain, having stood down in November, word from behind the scenes is that he was a hugely important figure once again last week, setting the tone before the game and also delivering an excellent half-time speech that inspired his team-mates.
O’Mahony has plenty of miles on the clock and has suffered serious injuries during his career, but he could rightly point out to the IRFU and Munster that he recently started all five games in Ireland’s World Cup campaign without issue. There seems to be a worry that he will struggle to maintain his standards physically but that is not the case so far.
With his IRFU deal due to expire, it’s thought that O’Mahony’s initial discussion on this subject with Munster boss Graham Rowntree didn’t go well. Whether that is connected to his shock decision to stand down as Munster captain isn’t clear. However, the fact that Munster still haven’t appointed a successor to O’Mahony suggests they may not have see the decision coming.
There is still plenty of time before O’Mahony’s contract with the IRFU ends but right now, there is a sense that this could be the Cork man’s last season with Munster. That could change if he continues to perform at the high level he has been. It might even be that the IRFU decide that Irish rugby can’t afford to lose his nous.
As for 33-year-old Zebo, 35-year-old Archer, and 35-year-old Kilcoyne, Munster have to make final decisions on whether they can continue to have a big influence for the province beyond the end of this season.
Just two months ago, it seemed sure that this would be Zebo’s final season. He hadn’t featured a huge amount in his first two years after rejoining from Racing 92, but he has enjoyed a return to the first team in recent weeks and shown some of his old class.
The Munster squad is light on back three options after Earls and Conway’s retirements but first-choice fullback Mike Haley is due back soon, while Munster have high hopes for 21-year-old Patrick Campbell, who is also returning to the mix after injury.
Calvin Nash and Shane Daly are the first-choice wings, while academy men Shay McCarthy and Ben O’Connor have shown promise out wide this season. Liam Coombes, currently out injured, has signed a new one-year deal for next season but it wouldn’t be a surprise if Munster are looking for a new signing in the back three.
Loosehead prop Kilcoyne has been ruled out injured for the rest of this season, meaning he might have played his last game for the province unless they extend his deal or he is happy to accept a drop in his salary. It’s believed that Kilcoyne has every intention of playing on next season, whether with Munster or elsewhere.
The 35-year-old was at last year’s World Cup with Ireland but Munster have preferred Jeremy Loughman as their starting loosehead.
Josh Wycherely is also part of the senior squad, while their academy includes three younger looseheads in Mark Donnelly, Kieran Ryan, and George Hadden. There has also been some chatter about Munster looking for a new addition in this position but that depends on how their budget and the availability of an Irish-qualified player.
Cian Healy is expected to play on into next season with Leinster, who also have Andrew Porter, Ed Byrne, and the emerging Jack Boyle and Paddy McCarthy, so Michael Milne would be an obvious loosehead to target if Munster were to go into the market in this position.
Tighthead Stephen Archer is the province’s most capped player of all time but he and fellow 35-year-old John Ryan are out of contract at the end of this campaign. The recent arrival of 28-year-old Oli Jager from New Zealand has bumped both experienced tightheads down the pecking order.
Roman Salanoa, still only 26, made strong progress last season before suffering another injury. He remains sidelined but Munster are hopeful that the Hawaii native can get fit again and give them dynamism along with Jager.
That means one of Archer or Ryan could leave at the end of his season, while Keynan Knox is also expected to depart. Munster feel academy tightheads Darragh McSweeney and Ronan Foxe have the size and skills to make the grade in the coming years.
Still, it seems a risk for Munster to lose the experience of both Archer and Ryan at the same time. It’s thought Ryan is the more likely to still be with the province next season.
So Rowntree and Munster have plenty of decisions to make and possible offers to ponder. Head of rugby operations Ian Costello’s role involves succession planning and player retention, as well as recruitment, so it’s not all Rowntree’s responsibility. They have a better sense than anyone of what needs to happen with this squad next.
In truth, the process of changing the guard is already well underway. Casey and Jack Crowley have become the first-choice halfback pairing and look like being the main men for years to come, while previous squad players such as Nash, Daly, Gavin Coombes, and Diarmuid Barron have become central figures over the past few seasons.
Ireland international Tadhg Beirne has been captaining Munster along with Barron since O’Mahony stepped down and appears to be the likely permanent successor.
The impact of signings like centres Antoine Frisch and Alex Nankivell bode well for this Munster set-up’s future recruitment.
The southern province are being linked with Bulls hooker Johan Grobbelaar and South African sources say that the expectation there is that he will move at the end of the season. 26-year-old Grobbelaar has been in Springboks camp before but hasn’t been capped yet.
Not for the first time, there have also been links with former Connacht lock/flanker Ultan Dillane, who grew up in Kerry and played underage rugby with Munster. The 30-year-old is out of contract with La Rochelle this summer and would be a fine addition.
Crucially for Munster, there is a big crop of talented homegrown products who have come through the academy or are still part of it but will surely make an impact with the senior team sooner rather than later.
Tom Ahern and John Hodnett have quickly become important players, while Campbell, Edwin Edogbo, Brian Gleeson, Ruadhan Quinn, Evan O’Connell, and O’Connor are among the other prospects. Word is that there is more talent to come from the Munster pathway.
Now, Munster have to balance the potential of the new breed with the experience of older players. Losing a huge swathe of the senior figures’ know-how all at once would be a big step even if it’s thought that some of the younger players in the squad feel ready to assume more responsibility.
Rowntree, along with assistant coaches Mike Prendergast and Denis Leamy, has changed how Munster play the game and he already has a URC title to show for his work.
That trophy, Munster’s first in over a decade, certainly gives him the power to make big calls but he is still in just his second season as a head coach, so making these important decisions is relatively new to him.
When he went after the Munster job, Rowntree would have known that this squad was facing into a period of major change with several senior players coming towards their final seasons with the province.
Regardless of what happens next with those high-profile figures, even if several of them stay beyond the summer, the changing of the guard in Munster is well underway.
