IT MIGHT HAVE a 12pm kick-off time but you’ll do well to find any high-noon headlines. That’s what happens when you get a URC match scheduled on a Super Saturday. Everyone’s attention is in Dublin or Paris.
So, we’re not going to try and sell you a dud here. Ireland versus Scotland for the Triple Crown or the Lions hosting a Munster side (kick off 12pm live RTE, Premier Sports) deprived of their A-Listers? We know where your attention will be drawn to.
Still, this game shouldn’t be completely ignored. For Munster, it fits into must-win status and even if that does seem a bit excitable for a re-arranged URC fixture, well, here’s some context. So far this season Munster have lost four times – away from home each time. So far under Johann van Graan’s tenure, they have lost five semi-finals. All five defeats were away from Thomond Park.
You can see where we’re going with this. Get a team to Limerick and your chances of winning increase significantly. Look who has lost there since van Graan got the gig, Racing, Leicester, Toulon, Wasps, Castres, Harlequins, Saracens, Exeter and each of their URC rivals.
Put them at home in a semi-final against anyone bar Leinster and you’d back them to win it. Send them away and your belief in them dips. That rule applies for everyone else, too, but Munster are the ones most obsessed with ending a trophy famine. That is highly unlikely to happen in this year’s Champions Cup so this is their chance.
Lose today and they could blow it. With six games left in the regular season, they have 41 points gathered, eight fewer than second-place, Ulster, nine fewer than leaders, Leinster. This is their game in hand. Win it with a bonus-point and the tone of the season changes.
Suddenly, Munster would be looking at a run-in that comprises Benetton and Cardiff at home (ten points as good as banked), Leinster home and away and Ulster away. Realistically, if they are going to overhaul Ulster or Leinster, they have to leave South Africa this evening with a bonus point victory.
Get that and the pressure on Leo Cullen’s team increases. They have trips to Connacht, Thomond Park, the Sharks and Stormers, as well as their Aviva date with Munster. That, by some distance, is the toughest run-in of all – but Leinster have a squad who can deal with that strain. Plus they have a nine-point cushion on Munster.
It’s not unrealistic to imagine Leinster getting at least 15 points from those five matches, thereby ending the regular season with a tally of 65 points. Even if they were to get just 10 points from five games, Munster would still need 21 match points from their concluding six games to overtake them. That’s why five this afternoon is an absolute minimum for any team with title ambitions.
They didn’t play like champions in waiting last week. In fact they were awful for the first half before they dug in when the game looked beyond them to regain a bit of respect. At one stage they even looked like winning it before the Bulls rediscovered a bit of composure in the closing stages.
The Lions are considered easier opponents yet on their two trips to Ireland this season they proved to be more than competent, exceptional scrummagers, reasonably tight in defence but average in attack. You fancy them to cause some damage, to make gains in the set-piece, to look a bit sharper in the final quarter at altitude than they ever did on their European jousts.
Still, this is a decent Munster team van Graan has picked, Damian De Allende and Chris Farrell offering strength in midfield; Jack Crowley something extra at fly-half. These are the days we’ll learn about Alex Kendellan and John Hodnett. Most of all we will learn how desperately Munster want that home semi-final.
Emirates Lions: Quan Horn, Stean Pienaar, Wandisile Simelane, Burger Odendaal (CAPT), Edwill van der Merwe, Jordan Hendrikse, Morne van den Berg, Sithembiso Sithole, Jaco Visagie, Carlu Sadie, Ruben Schoeman, Reinhard Nothnagel, Sibusiso Sangweni, Vincent Tshituka, Francke Horn
Replacements: PJ Botha, JP Smith, Ruan Dreyer, Ruan Venter, Emmanuel Tshituka, Nico Steyn, Manuel Rass, Tiaan Swanepoel
Munster: Mike Haley, Calvin Nash, Chris Farrell, Damian de Allende, Shane Daly, Jack Crowley, Neil Cronin, Josh Wycherley, Niall Scannell, John Ryan, Jean Kleyn, Fineen Wycherley; Jack O’Donoghue (CAPT), John Hodnett, Alex Kendellen.
Replacements: Scott Buckley, Mark Donnelly, Keynan Knox, Eoin O’Connor, Chris Cloete, Paddy Patterson, Ben Healy, Liam Coombes.
Referee: Chris Busby (IRFU)
