HERE IT IS then, El Gasico.
In some derbies, the form book goes out the window but for Newcastle vs Manchester City, it’s the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.
It’s Saudi-owned Newcastle against UAE-backed Manchester City….AND IT’S LIVE!
Newcastle have spent this game’s prelude explaining why they can’t spend any of their gazillion pounds this January, so constrained are they by the Premier League’s financial fair play rules. In fact, if they miss out on the Champions League – as looks probable – they may be forced to sell one of their elite trio of Bruno Guimaraes, Sven Botman, or Alexander Isak. This is a nightmare scenario for Newcastle – a brutal check on progress - but given Mike Ashley’s negligence of the club’s academy, they currently don’t have a Chelsea-style belt of quality players to sell at a profit to address financial concerns. Hence one of their stars may have to do.
But all of that is for the medium-term. More immediate is the challenge of Manchester City, against whom Eddie Howe has a stunningly bad record. In 16 games against City, he has one win, one draw, and 14 defeats. These are games in which his sides have conceded 45 goals and scored only nine.
Now he faces Manchester City in the slough of wretched form and amid an injury crisis that won’t abate. The latest absentee is the hard-running and under-rated Joelinton, whose retooling as a midfielder has been among Howe’s shrewdest moves. Having once disrupted his own team in front of goal, he is now in an area of the pitch to bring maximum disruption to the opposition. He won’t be around tonight, though, and nor will Callum Wilson, Joe Willock, Harvey Barnes, Jacob Murphy, Nick Pope, and Sandro Tonali. This list is proof the squad have been unable to cope with the demands of the Champions League, which has exacerbated Howe’s intensely physical approach.
And while City are without Erling Haaland and John Stones, Kevin de Bruyne is fit to start.
So when all of these malign facts are supplemented by Newcastle’s appalling run of form – seven defeats in their last nine games – it’s difficult to see anything other than another chastening day for Howe and his players.
If he and Newcastle are to upset the odds, they must be bold. The Cup win at Sunderland scored low on the difficulty tariff but will be an emotional fillip, given the significance of the occasion. They have also been afforded some long-overdue rest, as the City game will be their second game in 13 days, having played 10 games in 31 days up to Stephen’s Day.
This will give their front-liners a refresh, and perhaps allow them to press and chase City in the manner which has delivered all of Newcastle’s best results under Howe. They can also lean on the Carabao Cup win over City earlier in the season, albeit against a side without Ederson, Rodri, De Bruyne, and Haaland.
More important is that Howe learns the lesson of the 1-0 loss at the Etihad at the start of the season. To whatever extent City can ever be vulnerable, this was it. Newcastle had a fully-fit squad and a week’s preparation against a City side denuded by injury and exhausted by a Super Cup shootout win in sweltering Greek heat three days earlier. Yet Newcastle arrived and offered nothing, registering just one shot on target in a tale of meek surrender.
It was a miserable Newcastle effort that lacked the mitigation that is applied to recent defeats and it must not be replicated today.
There is a gathering sense of inevitability about Manchester City’s form; that they are now primed to stride clear at the top because of Arsenal’s collapse and despite Liverpool’s earnest front-running. Yet City have shown flaws which Newcastle must target: their defence is springing leaks, with Ederson and Ruben Dias well below their usual performance levels.
City have kept only five clean sheets so far this season, and the 21 goals they have conceded in their first 19 games is the joint-second-worst record they have had under Guardiola, tying with 16/17 and beaten by 19/20 (23 conceded). (Eagle-eyed readers will spot these are the only seasons in which Pep Guardiola hasn’t won the Premier League since he arrived.)
Being bold must involve Howe picking a more offensive left-back. In that dreary effort at the start of the season, Dan Burn played in that position and offered so little going forward that Phil Foden – notionally starting on the right wing – could wander into central areas, from where he caused havoc. Foden set up Julian Alvarez’ winning goal and created another six chances from open play, his highest-ever tally and more than all of his teammates combined. Tino Livramento is a better option at left-back: he would give City more to worry about going the other way.
Eddie Howe bemoaned Newcastle’s lack of friends yesterday, in the context of their struggling to sign players on loan. But all of City’s rivals will be in their corner tonight because, after this, tenth-placed Chelsea are the only top-half side City play in the league until the Manchester derby on 2 March.
This has been a turbulent season for Newcastle, but tonight they have a stage to remind any waning believers of last season’s achievements. Will their manager be brave enough to take the opportunity?
Newcastle vs Manchester City; Live on TNT Sports 1, KO 5.30pm