New Orleans Saints @ Chicago Bears
IN OCTOBER 2012, the New Orleans Saints were 0-4 and struggling for any sort of form under interim-interim head coach Aaron Kromer as the repercussions of the bounty scandal and season-long suspension of Sean Payton really took hold.
But what a difference a year makes. After close wins over the Falcons and Buccaneers in the first two games of the season, New Orleans trounced a mediocre Cardinals team in week three and yet, still, I failed to be impressed by a team so patently one-sided on offence. However, Monday’s win over the playoff-contending Miami Dolphins said much more about the Saints’ prospects for 2013 than anything they achieved in their first three weeks.
Jimmy Graham has been key to everything the Saints have done well on offence this year and so it’s no surprise he ranks second in receiving yards (458) through four games. However, on Monday the Dolphins defence placed him in double coverage on nearly every play. Miami’s gameplan was simple. Take away Graham and you take away most of the threat from an offence that ranks second in passing (338.2 yards per game) but only 25th on the ground (81.2 ypg).
The Saints response was perfect, they just threw the ball to running back Darren Sproles instead and by half time he had seven receptions, 114 yards and a touchdown.
On Sunday they face a Bears team that reverted to type last week. After opening the season 3-0 with impressive displays on both offence and defence, Jay Cutler threw three interceptions and fumbled the football to hand his team their first loss of the year.
Of course, not all the blame lies with Cutler and the offence. The Bears defence have forced 14 turnovers this year but only ranks 20th in the league because they continue to miss tackles, especially in the run game, and give up a colossal 384 ypg. They are also allowing 28.5 points per game which puts an awful lot of pressure on their offence and could go some way to explaining why they’ve turned the ball over nine times in four games, the third worst offenders in the NFL.
Verdict: Vegas says you can toss a coin on this one but I think the Saints will take better care of the football and that will prove key. Saints by 5.
New England Patriots @ Cincinnati Bengals (-1)
Want to know a really weird stat? Andy Dalton, the man who struggles against and loses to the Brian Hoyers of this world, has won his last four games against Super Bowl winning quarterbacks. That list includes Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers and Big Ben Roethlisberger twice.
On Sunday he faces a three time Super Bowl winning quarterback, Tom Brady, who has somehow steered his team to 4-0 without having anything like NFL quality receivers or running backs. However, they’ve managed to eek out wins – three have been by seven points or less – by hook or by crook and are aiming for their first 5-0 start since 2007, when they went 16-0 in the regular season.
This week though, they’ll have to win without defensive leader Vince Wilfork who damaged his achilles last Sunday. However, the Bengals will have to prove to be more of an offensive threat than they have done this season, managing just 327 ypg (22nd), and it will probably take more than their 20.3 points per game (22nd) to outmuscle the Pats this weekend.
Verdict: It’s never easy to back against Tom Brady but there’s no doubting Dalton ups his game when it comes to playing elite quarterbacks. Bengals by 3.
Kansas City Chiefs (-3) @ Tennessee Titans
If you’d told me at the start of the season that I’d be writing about the Chiefs and Titans as one of the ‘must watch’ games of week five, I’d probably be asking you for Saturday evening’s lotto numbers.
Sure, I expected the Chiefs to improve under Andy Reid this season but I couldn’t imagine the difference Alex Smith would make to a team that already had a number of key components in place. However, it is their stingy defence which leads the league in sacks (18) and points allowed (10.3 per game) that Kansas City fans can be most thankful for.
On Sunday, they get to face Ryan Fitzpatrick after surprise standout Jake Locker picked up a hip injury following a cheap shot against the Jets last weekend. The problem for Fitzpatrick, other than the fact he’s not very good, is that Tennessee have little in the way of run support this year and – as good as Nate Washington in particular has been through the air – Chris Johnson has run for just 277 yards on 84 attempts and is yet to find the endzone.
Verdict: With Locker in the huddle, the Titans had a genuine chance to win this game. Kansas City by 5.
The rest*
Buffalo Bills @ Cleveland Browns (-3.5)
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers (-7)
Seattle Seahawks (-3) @ Indianapolis Colts
Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins (-3)
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants (-2)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ St Louis Rams (-11.5)
Carolina Panthers (-2) @ Arizona Cardinals
Denver Broncos (-7.5) @ Dallas Cowboys
Houston Texans @ San Francisco 49ers (-6.5)
San Diego Chargers (-4) @ Oakland Raiders
New York Jets @ Atlanta Falcons (-9.5)
*Note the team in bold has been picked to beat the spread, not necessarily win the game.
