TO HOYLAKE, FOR the year’s final major.
There are prettier courses on the Open rota but the greatest testament to the Hoylake is its roll-call of winners, the most recent pair being Tiger Woods (2006) and Rory McIlroy (2014.)
This chimes with the 100-year-old tribute by British writer Bernard Darwin unearthed this week by Golf Digest. “There is none of your smug smoothness and trimness about Hoylake; it is rather hard and bare and bumpy and needs a man to conquer it.”
A sharp intake of breath will be needed on the 17th tee, a brand-new par-three for which the target is an elevated green that is hideously exposed to the wind and zealously guarded by a set of greenside bunkers. Members are allowed to pick up their ball and move on if they make a six here, but there are no such guardrails for the pros this week. Here are some of the hole’s early reviews.
Rory McIlroy: Could get a little dicey.
Darren Clarke: Almost brilliant, but just a touch severe.
Jon Rahm: It’s fair, because it’s unfair to everybody.
Matt Fitzpatrick: Interesting.
Billy Foster: A monstrosity.
There’s an internal out of bounds on the 18th hole too, which has been brought 20 yards closer to the fairway, meaning the course is set up for some closing drama. The scoring opportunities are on the front nine, with the back nine swinging out by the coast.
Rory McIlroy won’t have fond memories of the last time we saw internal out of bounds at the Open – that’s precisely where his first shot at Portrush in 2019 landed – but will have far warmer memories of Hoylake.
“It’s basically how I remember it”, said McIlroy. “It’s a very strategic golf course off the tee. It’s very, very well bunkered. That’s I think the biggest challenge of this golf course, is avoiding those pot bunkers off the tee.”
He gave those quotes outside of the main press conference room as he repeated what he did before the US and Scottish Opens in cancelling that press engagement. It would appear he’s sick of wrestling with questions about LIV, Jay Monahan and mergers. Subsequent results would suggest that’s working for him.
But can this be the week he ends The Major Drought?
Coming in off victory of the Scottish Open augurs well, even if the balance of probabilities suggests how tough it is to go back-to-back on consecutive weeks. (The last person to win in Scotland and then take the Claret Jug was Phil Mickelson in 2013.)
The fact he spoke of when he wins his next major in the harsh aftermath of finishing second at the US Open also spoke to his confidence, and technically he has learned from some of his errors at LA Country Club. His challenge faltered with a poor wedge shot into the 14th green on that occasion, and he later rued his impatience as the ball got pushed by a gust of wind. In that context, it was interesting to see him patiently demur from shots on multiple occasions in far blustier conditions in Scotland last weekend.
It won’t be as windy in Liverpool this week but it will be windy nonetheless: McIlroy has the guile and shotmaking ability to figure out the trigonometry of wind, course, and hole. The divine 2-iron into the final green at Renaissance last Sunday was proof of that.
McIlroy will almost certainly contend, but there is, of course, no guarantee he will win. His putter bailed him across large parts of Sunday in Scotland and it will have to be equally solicitous if he is to win this week. He must also conquer the tightness that has taken over down the stretch of late: he hardly holed a putt on the final day at St Andrew’s last year and LACC last month, but too often gave himself too much to do. And if all that goes in his favour, McIlroy has to hope that somebody doesn’t come out and play better.
The biggest threat in this regard is Scottie Sheffler, who is enjoying a year of astonishing consistency. He hasn’t been outside the top five in any of his last seven starts, hasn’t finished worse than T12 since the CJ Cup last October, and yet hasn’t won since the Players Championship in March. He leads the PGA Tour stats in virtually all but putting, where he ranks 134th, the weakness of which is the wrong kind of consistency.
Scheffler insists his putting is not a problem, claiming it’s a convenient media narrative. “Something has to be created into a story, and for a while, it didn’t really seem like there was much of a story behind the way I play golf”, said Scheffler this week. “I think I was viewed as probably a touch boring.” This is positive reinforcement pushed to breaking point, because the stats don’t lie. But if Scheffler’s putter can get even lukewarm – and these greens will be slower than the glass across which he has been putting Stateside - he has a glorious chance of winning a second major championship.
Elsewhere, Shane Lowry is wrongly regarded as a links-and-wind specialist – there is much more to his game than that – but it is undeniable that the conditions and the venue should suit him. Lowry’s putter has let him down at times this year but he has been quietly consistent, finishing in the top 20 at all three of the majors this year so far.
Padraig Harrington’s consistency has garnered a few more headlines lately, and he will use his performance this week to decide whether he should change schedule and play on the DP World Tour to try and force himself into Luke Donald’s Ryder Cup team, where he would become the oldest player in the competition’s history.
Seamus Power is happily fit to play after withdrawing from the Scottish Open, while Meath amateur Alex Maguire will also tee it up having qualified through the R&A’s new Open Amateur series. He is one of only six amateurs in the field, and the Low Amateur title is a realistic target for him this week.
There are 16 LIV players in the field, as many as played the Masters earlier this year. They include defending champion Cameron Smith – bidding to become the first back-to-back winner since Harrington – and Brooks Koepka, bidding for his second major of the year.
History teaches us that it’s rare to bolt from nowhere for the Claret Jug: only three of the last 23 Open champions were without a PGA Tour or European Tour win under their belts in the preceding 12 months.
It’s in this context that Rickie Fowler becomes an intriguing prospect: having contended at the US Open, he won the Rocket Mortgage Classic last month and was in the final group alongside McIlroy on this very course in 2014. Viktor Hovland should contend if he can stay away from the bunkers – a big ask at Hoylake – while Tommy Fleetwood has rediscovered his form in recent months but has to prove he can handle the mental challenge of truly contending.
Jon Rahm, meanwhile, is flying way under the radar: it isn’t so much as he hasn’t achieved anything since the Masters – though he hasn’t achieved anything since the Masters – as much as he hasn’t done anything at all, playing just five times.
McIlroy has the form and the skillset to finally end this major drought, but even if he can steer his way around the weather and nine years worth of personal hang-ups, he may still have to find a way past Scheffler.
The42 Team’s 2023 Open Championship Tips
Sinead Farrell
- John Rahm to win – 10/1
Fintan O’Toole
- Rickie Fowler e/w – 18/1
- Jordan Spieth e/w – 25/1
Gavin Cooney
- Scottie Scheffler to win – 8/1
- Rickie Fowler e/w – 18/1
- Denny McCarthy e/w – 100/1
Ronan Early
- Rory McIlroy to win – 13/2
- Shane Lowry to finish inside top 10 – 3/1
Niall Kelly
- Brooks Koepka 14/1