Arsenal have been forced to change too much
There is a growing sense that Arsenal have reached late-stage Joe Schmidt’s Ireland, in which an overly-prescribed attacking plan has been figured out by opposition. But Arsenal may be suffering from the opposite problem: have they changed too much from last season? They have played much of this season with an almost entirely different midfield, as Thomas Partey is injured and Granit Xhaka is back at Bayer Leverkusen.
Declan Rice has been a terrific signing but Kai Havertz has been an awkward replacement for Xhaka. That’s not to say Havertz has flopped: he has scored several important goals, and is an aerial threat at the back post while allowing Arsenal to play more direct. (See their winner against Manchester City.)
But Arsenal have lost physicality in midfield without Xhaka, along with the quality of his passing. Havertz has so far averaged almost exactly half as many progressive passes per game as Xhaka did last season, which has diminished left-sided attacker Gabriel Martinelli. Martinelli has scored twice in 18 league games so far this season, having scored seven in his first 18 games of last season. The stats show Martinelli is receiving the ball more than ever, but is doing so in less dangerous positions.
Arsenal needed to evolve this season, but the scale of change in midfield means they have stumbled into something closer to revolution.
Manchester United: not even the best at buying Ajax players
Manchester United have been denuded by injuries but that provides only a certain amount of mitigation for what has been an appalling season. They are eighth and 14 points off the top having lost nine of their 20 league games. Most concerning is this appears to be an overperformance: the xG Philosophy account says United have 31 actual points from xG performances that should have yielded 24.
The club’s complete lack of coherence has been exposed again this season, and it is evident in Erik ten Hag’s muddled thinking. Having started the job promising to replicate the total control of his Ajax days, he started this season saying he wanted United to be the best transition team in the league. There’s nothing wrong with this, but it’s a jackknife in strategy that makes a mockery of transfer policy. Antony may be useful in a technical team with better players around him, but he is too slow and predictable to play in a quick-tempo game of attack and counter.
This is the style practised by West Ham, who found the perfect player for it at…Ajax. Mohammed Kudus would be a much better fit for what United are now trying to do. How on earth did they end up with Antony instead?
Darwin Nunez is the league’s most interesting player
Darwin Nunez misses too many easy chances. On this, we can all agree. But of those missed chances, how many would have fallen to any of Liverpool’s other forward options?
If you feel the debate about Nunez seems endless, it’s because it’s circular. Yes, Darwin misses chances, but Darwin creates the chances he misses. Do you drop him in favour of someone who won’t create as many chances to miss?
If Darwin starts converting these chances, then Liverpool will be nigh-impossible to stop. Whether he does that is no guarantee: better finishing can be coached and learned, but just because others have improved doesn’t mean Darwin will.
An interesting comparison was dug up after the Newcastle game. Nunez has only one goal fewer in his first 18 months at Anfield than his compatriot Luis Suarez did in the same time period. So if Darwin can keep on following Suarez’ trajectory, then Liverpool will be a nightmare opponent.
Some similarities in the basic numbers of Luis Suarez and Darwin Nunez at the start of their Liverpool careers
— Omar Chaudhuri (@OmarChaudhuri) January 1, 2024
Luis Suarez first 18 months at Liverpool: 15 goals, 183 shots, 3644 minutes
Darwin Nunez to date at Liverpool: 14 goals, 134 shots, 2749 minutes
Newcastle weren’t ready for the Champions League
Last season there was a sense that Newcastle qualified for the Champions League ahead of schedule: this season confirmed so. They were slightly unlucky to finish bottom of their group – and their only really poor performances were away to AC Milan and Dortmund – but their squad was not ready to cope with the twin demands of Europe and the Premier League.
Nor was Eddie Howe. His style is fast and physical and extremely demanding, which has exacerbated the pressure on a group of players already fraying at the edges. No other team has had as many injuries as Newcastle have had this season, while those who stayed fit have now been run into a state of exhaustion given the lack of rotation options. Their form has collapsed, and a return to the Champions League now looks highly improbable. When they do return to Europe’s elite, Howe may have to temper the physical demands of his approach. That’s if he is still at Newcastle by then, of course.
Chelsea’s transfer strategy is as daft as it always seemed
Chelsea have spent the first half of the season eddying around tenth place, Mauricio Pochettino failing to cohere Todd Boehly’s portfolio of young assets into an effective team. A billion pounds later, the squad still has glaring weaknesses at goalkeeper, left-back, and up front.
Chelsea’s strategy of buying talent young and then selling them high is a perfectly good plan: but player value is a byproduct of their performing well in an effective and balanced team. Chelsea have instead stockpiled talent without enough thought going to the structure of the team. Have any of Chelsea’s many, many signings increased in value in the 18 months Boehly et al have been in charge?
Meanwhile, rumours are rife that the club will have to sell Conor Gallagher in January to comply with Financial Fair Play requirements. Gallagher has been integral to the team Pochettino is building, which sums up how errant Chelsea’s approach has been.
Tottenham will miss Fabio Paratici
Fabio Paratici resigned as Spurs’ Director of Football having failed to overturn a 30-month suspension from football for an alleged role in false accounting at his former club Juventus. Few Spurs fans were then bewailing his departure, but a combination of time and Ange Postecoglu’s coaching has added considerable shine to Paratici’s work in the transfer market.
All of Destiny Udogie, Yves Bissouma, Dejan Kulusevski, Pape Sarr, Pedro Porro, and Christian Romero were signed under Paratici’s watch, and all have been integral under Postecoglu. Richarlison, Rodrigo Bentancur and Emerson Royal were signed by him too, and all have had various degrees of influence on Angeball. Paratici also reportedly made contact about goalkeeper Guglielmo Vicario, a move Spurs followed through on to great success.
Postecoglu has been a revelation but Paratici left him an impressive group of players with which to work. If Spurs can maintain that level of transfer success, then they are in for a thrilling couple of years.
The Irish are clawing their way back
The 42 has annually recorded Ireland’s declining influence in the Premier League, but the graph is now mercifully trending upwards. Irish players have collectively played 6,611 minutes in the league so far this season, whereas across the whole of last season Irish players clocked 9,326 minutes between them – the lowest ever.
The Irish total for this season would be higher had John Egan not been injured so early in the season, while Brighton and Luton are managing the minutes of Evan Ferguson and Chiedozie Ogbene respectively. Seamus Coleman has recovered from his long-term injury and will likely play the bulk of Everton’s remaining games if he can shake off injury niggles.
Dara O’Shea and Nathan Collins have been regulars for Burnley and Brentford, while Matt Doherty has been a reliable and effective substitute at Wolves, where Nelson Semedo has been first-choice.
Alex Murphy made a surprise debut for Newcastle, Caoimhin Kelleher got two rare league games for Liverpool, while Tom Cannon made a brief Everton appearance before leaving for Leicester and wobbling over whether he’s Irish.
O’Shea aside, the major Irish disappointments have been at Burnley. Michael Obafemi has struggled for minutes on recovery from long-term injury, while Josh Cullen – Vincent Kompany’s main man at Anderlecht and in the Championship – has been dropped from the midfield.
Andrew Omobamidele, meanwhile, has hardly featured in a matchday squad under two managers at Nottingham Forest: that move now looks to be a mistake. In better news, Mark O’Mahony and Leigh Kavanagh have featured on Brighton’s bench at times and might make debuts before the season is out.
Based off the minutes played so far, Irish players are on course for their highest number of collective minutes since the 2020/21 season, which is some encouraging news for Stephen Kenny’s replacement.
Manchester City are primed to take the drama out of a brilliant season
The Premier League is higher scoring than ever before: much more added time when players are at their most tired is delivering on the goals front, anyway. It’s beautifully tight at the top, where fifth-placed Tottenham are five points from leaders Liverpool.
Games have been thrilling and unpredictable and we have had a great preamble to what could be a classic title rac-oh, wait, here come Manchester City.
There’s no guarantee City stride to the title from here, but there is a gathering inevitability about it. Erling Haaland and Kevin de Bruyne are almost back from injury, with John Stones their only real medium-term concern.
City seem to have shaken off their post-treble hangover and will find themselves only two points off the top if they win their game in hand against Brentford. They have averaged 45 points in the second half of seasons under Guardiola, and if City can meet that target again, all of their rivals will have to pick up more points in their final 19 games than they did across the first half of their schedules if they are going to win the league. It’s difficult to see that happening.
