10. Croatia
Surprised most people by getting all the way to the final in 2018, though were less impressive at the subsequent Euros, only winning one match, albeit Spain needed extra time to knock them out in the round of 16. Many of the heroes from four years ago are still knocking around, however, their age profile could prove problematic. The likes of Luke Modric, Ivan Perisic and Dejan Lovren are still regarded as key players but all are well into their 30s, meaning a repeat of their feats in Russia looks unlikely. Consequently, Zlatko Dalić’s men can be considered dark horses at best.
9. Belgium
Another side full of talent but widely considered to be passed their peak. There’s no doubt the likes of Toby Alderweireld, Jan Vertonghen and Eden Hazard have seen better days, but will probably still need to be relied on, as the generation below them don’t seem to have the same level of talent, or at least have yet to show it. The Belgians finished third at the last World Cup — arguably their best chance to win some silverware — and got to the quarters of the Euros in 2021, and it may continue to be a case of diminishing returns for Roberto Martinez’s side. They should be strong enough to get out of their group but will likely face a daunting fixture against either Spain or Germany in the round of 16.
8. Portugal
Cristiano Ronaldo will be the centre-point as ever, but Portugal have a hugely talented squad. Coach Fernando Santos has several world-class options including some of the Premier League’s best players in recent seasons — Bruno Fernandes, Bernardo Silva, Ruben Dias and Joao Cancelo. Whether they can effectively gel or find the right balance of players is another matter, however. Largely the same group of players were underwhelming at the Euros, losing out to Belgium in the round of 16 after barely getting past the group stages. They were also not wholly convincing in qualifying, as Ireland fans will attest, needing playoff wins over Turkey and North Macedonia after finishing second in their group.
7. Netherlands
Didn’t even qualify for the last World Cup, and disappointed at the most recent Euros, going out against Czech Republic in the round of 16. Yet there is a sense that they are a team on the up, with several of the gifted young Ajax side that reached the Champions League semis a few years back beginning to approach their peak years. With the backline likely to feature Virgil van Dijk and Nathan Ake, they have one of the most impressive defences in the competition, while there is a reason Man United spent most of the summer looking to persuade Frenkie De Jong to join — he is among the world’s top midfielders, despite the well-documented issues at Barcelona. 23-year-old Cody Gakpo is far from the most high-profile attacking player in the competition, but the PSV youngster is being tipped as a star of the future, with Man United and Arsenal among the clubs linked with the player recently. Generally, though, they look a little light in attack, with other teams having better options than the likely starting duo of ex-Tottenham star Steven Bergwijn and Memphis Depay, who has made just three appearances for Barcelona this season.
6. Argentina
The spotlight will, of course, be on Lionel Messi, who faces what is likely to be his last opportunity to win the World Cup. However, there is far more to the Argentine squad than just the 35-year-old superstar. The side were poor enough at the last World Cup, narrowly avoiding a group stage exit before losing 4-3 to eventual champions France in the round of 16. Lautaro Martinez has impressed for Inter Milan in Serie A in recent years, while Nicolás Otamendi and Cristian Romero (if he can stay fit) are a fairly solid defensive pairing, and Juventus’ Leandro Paredes is expected to sit in front of them. They should get out of a group containing Mexico, Poland and Saudi Arabia, but will face their first major test in the knockout stages, with a tie against either France or Denmark the likely outcome.
5. England
After their embarrassing Euro 2016 exit at the hands of Iceland, Gareth Southgate has transformed the Three Lions into a side to be reckoned with on the international stage, reaching the semi-finals of the last World Cup and only losing the Euros final on penalties against Italy. Whether they can go one better this time, however, is far from certain. Some important players — Harry Maguire, Raheem Sterling — have struggled for form at club level. Antonio Conte described their talisman, Harry Kane, as “really tired” last week. That said, Gareth Southgate’s conservative style has worked well in tournament football thus far. They should comfortably escape a group featuring USA, Wales and Iran, while their wealth of experience at winning knockout games thereafter should stand them in good stead, though whether that’s enough to go all the way looks doubtful.
4. Germany
One of the most intriguing teams set to travel. Since winning the World Cup in 2014, the Germans have generally underperformed at tournaments when you consider their significant talent pool. Albeit, they had a decent Euro 2016, reaching the semi-finals, but surprisingly crashed out of Russia in the group stages, while they were below par of the last Euros too, when they were beaten by England at Wembley in the round of 16. The current squad looks superb on paper, with a considerable contingent of Bayern Munich stars, including Leroy Sané, Serge Gnabry, Joshua Kimmich and Manuel Neuer, and many of the players in question are coming towards the peak of their careers. Thomas Müller by contrast has been a key figure at past tournaments, but at 33, is not expected to figure prominently this time around. Yet for all their squad depth, they have shown moments of psychological weakness during big moments in the recent past, so whether they are strong enough mentally to triumph is one of the biggest question marks they face.
3. Spain
One of the most exciting-looking teams coming into the tournament. Their midfield is likely to feature two hugely talented Barcelona teenagers — Pedri and Gavi — whose combined age is less than the actual age of a handful of players at the tournament. There is plenty of experience elsewhere though, with Man City duo Aymeric Laporte and Rodri expected to start, while Real Madrid’s Dani Carvajal and Barcelona’s Jordi Alba are likely to occupy the wing-back roles. It is perhaps in attack where they are weakest, with the likes of Ferran Torres and Alvaro Morata not really proven players at the very highest level. Their goalkeeping options are so strong, meanwhile, that Man United’s David De Gea was left out of the squad entirely. Their recent indifferent performances at major tournaments suggest it won’t be easy, but they are among the best teams in Europe on current form — reaching the last four of the Nations League recently — and certainly have the potential to prevail.
2. France
It’s hard to think of a superior attack line in the tournament than the one expected to line out for France in the coming weeks, with Karim Benzema, Kylian Mbappe and Antoine Griezmann all likely to start for Les Bleus. The current holders are more than capable of retaining the trophy, but much will depend on whether this talented group of individuals can form a cohesive unit. They basically imploded at the last Euros, deservedly losing out to a Switzerland side nowhere near as talented as their opponents but far hungrier. The fact that they were only second seeds in the recent Euro 2024 qualifying draw and ended up in Ireland’s group suggests they haven’t exactly gone from strength to strength since then, despite comfortably qualifying for the World Cup without losing a game. A Paul Pogba-less midfield will likely feature impressive young Real Madrid duo Aurélien Tchouaméni and Eduardo Camavinga. Moreover, their backline certainly has plenty of experience, with Hugo Lloris, Raphael Varane, and Lucas Hernandez, in addition to one of the most highly rated young centre-backs in the world in Barcelona’s Jules Koundé, who joined the Catalan club in the summer for a reported fee of around €55 million. Perhaps the main problem is their players’ well-documented history of falling out with one another, but if Didier Deschamps can control the inflated egos in the squad, then a semi-final at the very least should be achievable. With first place a distinct possibility in their group though, a potential quarter-final with England could be the first significant test of their mettle.
1. Brazil
An interesting statistic to start off — of the last eight World Cups played outside of Europe, Brazil have won four, albeit it is now over 20 years since they last lifted the trophy. The only nation to have competed in every single tournament since its inception in 1930, their current squad is the strongest they have looked in quite some time. They boast remarkable depth in the attacking areas — Neymar, Richarlison and Vinicius Jr are among the likely starters, while the likes of Gabriel Jesus, Gabriel Martinelli, Antony and Rodrygo make up a very strong bench. Liverpool star Roberto Firmino’s exclusion from the squad was another telling indication of the immense talent at their disposal. Elsewhere too, they look solid. Casemiro has impressed since becoming Man United’s main man in midfield, while another player who starred in the Premier League this season, Newcastle’s Bruno Guimarães, may have to settle for a spot on the bench. Alisson will likely pip Ederson to the number one jersey. But like so many of the top sides, if there is a weakness, it is probably in defence — 38-year-old captain Thiago Silva is one of the oldest players at the tournament and surely doesn’t have too many miles left on the clock, but PSG’s Marquinhos, 10 years his fellow centre-back’s junior, should provide a bit more youthful exuberance alongside him. Given their enviable depth pool, the Seleção, who were unbeaten and won 14 out of 17 games in qualifying, are many people’s favourites to win the World Cup for the sixth time, and deservedly so.
