JUST IMAGINE HOW weird an evening it would be for Ireland on Saturday if they lose to Scotland but still win the Six Nations. It’s one of the possibilities ahead of the final round.
In this hypothetical scenario, Ireland would come up short in their clash with the Scots. And let’s say Andy Farrell’s didn’t even get a losing bonus point, which would ensure serious stress.
The game in Dublin would wrap up around 6.45pm and Ireland would trudge into their dressing room and get into their suits before heading upstairs for the post-match function. A barrel of laughs, you can imagine.
They’d be counting down the minutes until the 8pm kick-off of England’s meeting with France in Paris. They’d watch every ruck, scrum, and pass of the ball, hoping that the English couldn’t grab a bonus-point win that would mean Steve Borthwick’s side being crowned Six Nations champions.
If France did the job by denying England five match points, Ireland would be Six Nations winners for the second year in a row, but it would surely be a hollow feeling. Would they even go back onto the pitch at the Aviva Stadium to lift the trophy? It would be a miserable way to claim a Six Nations title.
OK, this scenario seems unlikely but it is possible. As Farrell’s men prepare for Saturday, their goal is clear – victory. A win of any kind over Scotland would guarantee Ireland the title.
A draw or two losing bonus points would also ensure Ireland had secured the title before a ball was kicked in Paris but would be underwhelming. The only scenario Ireland are thinking about is victory with a convincing performance to claim the title.
Ireland can’t waste time considering that they are 14-point favourites against the Scots this weekend. They were fancied by 12 points last weekend for the England clash and lost by one.
Farrell’s men can’t be lured into any sense of complacency just because they’ve won their last nine games against Scotland. The last time the Scots won this fixture was in 2017 but Farrell and his players always tell us that the recent history is irrelevant.
As was underlined once again in Twickenham last weekend, all that matters is being the best team on the day. England were clearly that in their 23-22 win and Ireland’s Grand Slam dream was ended.
Ireland’s excellent record against Scotland is also dangerous because it masks the fact that many of those nine consecutive wins have been hard-fought.
It’s true that Ireland were dominant in the most recent encounter at last year’s World Cup, powering their way into a 36-0 lead by the 58th minute before the Scots grabbed two consolation tries. Yet it’s not that it was ‘easy’ for Ireland that day, more so that Farrell’s men were superb. That level of performance is what they’re striving for this weekend.
There have been tight Irish wins amid this nine-game streak, including a 19-12 victory in Dublin in Farrell’s first game in charge in 2020 when Stuart Hogg dropped the ball over the tryline in a huge let-off for Ireland.
A year later, Ireland needed an excellent Johnny Sexton penalty in the 77th minute to edge a 27-24 victory. So it’s not like Ireland have been hammering the Scots for the past decade.
Scotland clearly struggle with this Ireland team but they still take proper beating. The moment the team who dominates a relationship with another team forgets that, they lose.
A level of derision has crept into how many in Irish rugby speak about Scotland these days and while part of that is just good-natured fun when Ireland have been so clearly on top of the relationship, it shouldn’t mean thinking that the Scots are mugs.
They haven’t beaten Ireland in head coach Gregor Townsend’s tenure but they have beaten England five times, France five times, Australia three times, and Argentina four times. There have always been doubts about their ability to deliver when the pressure is highest but there’s no doubt that Scotland are capable of superb performances.
They’re coming into his clash with Ireland fresh from their first defeat to Italy in nine years. That has led to more mockery but we know Italy have improved in recent years and the Scots will certainly feel they should have closed the game out having earned a 22-10 lead after half an hour.
In fact, Scotland will feel they were close to a much better Six Nations than has been the case. After opening with a victory over Wales, Townsend’s men believed they scored a winning try in the last play of the game against France only to be denied by the prolonged TMO review.
They had a fine win against England and then slipped against the Italians, so it’s another case of what might have been. Yet they travel to Dublin with silverware up for grabs. As was the case when they met Ireland last year, the Triple Crown is there for the taking.
It’s not a prize that holds as much value in Ireland these days but Scotland haven’t won a Triple Crown since 1990. It would be a major success for Townsend’s side.
As with England last weekend, the Scots have firm underdog status. They won’t be given much of a chance. They’ll probably be ridiculed in a few places. They have a seven-year score to settle with Ireland and they appear to despise this Irish team.
They won’t have forgotten how the likes of Sexon and Peter O’Mahony – now the Ireland captain – got in their faces, sledging them during last year’s World Cup clash. The image of O’Mahony winking at Russell after one Irish try might pop up a few times this week.
Scotland gave plenty of lip themselves that day, of course, but those fresh memories will add to the motivation.
They would love nothing more than to ruin the Irish party in Dublin even if they weren’t able to deny them the Six Nations title. Ireland must deliver a convincing performance to quell Scottish hopes of wiping the smiles off their faces.
