THE LAST THREE All-Ireland Finals have seen a 12-point winning margin for the victorious teams and there is something niggling away at me which thinks we might see another landslide victory for Limerick this Sunday.
The colour of the Kilkenny jersey and their manager’s previous All-Ireland victories can trick us in to believing that both teams on Sunday are of equal standing.
But if we strip out the nostalgia, this current Kilkenny team are a level below this group of Limerick players when it comes to game management.
In Kilkenny, we see a fantastic group of hurlers with all the core skills to win any inter-county hurling game, but their one flaw over the past few seasons is their lack of detail in games and their inability to deal with a situation where their opponents bring something different to the game. This has led to Kilkenny reverting to an abrasive game of catch-and-hit hurling when the pressure is applied and they have no answer to the questions the opposition are asking of their team.
The response from the sideline in these games has been to make substitutions in the hope of a player winning their own individual battle, but the tactical changes have just never come from the Kilkenny management. The evidence is there from previous losses against Waterford in 2020, Cork in 2021, and Wexford in 2022.
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Waterford 2020
In 2020 against Waterford in their All-Ireland Semi Final, Kilkenny reverted to long wild deliveries from inside their own 45 metre line. The game saw them hit 11 long deliveries into their forwards from inside their own 45 metre line, and it saw Cody’s team have a 9% retention rate from these long passes.
Overall in that game, they hit 26 deliveries in the Waterford half of the pitch and retained possession on just eight occasions which was a 31% retention rate.
That game also highlighted Kilkenny’s inability in their defence to deal with a team’s movement on the puck out and their lack of clarity in how to mark zonally. This saw Waterford score 2-7 (13) off their long puck out as the Cats struggled with Stephen Bennett’s and Callum Lyons’ movement.
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Cork 2021
In 2021, Kilkenny struggled to defend Cork’s short puck out which saw the Rebels scoring 0-6 off their short restarts. This highlighted the lack of clarity in how the Kilkenny forwards were to defend the middle third off Cork’s short restarts.
Cody’s team also launched 19 long deliveries into their forwards from inside their own 45 metre line which saw them retain six and lose 13. They conceded nine points from these deliveries being turned over in the Cork half of the pitch.
That game did highlight the team that Kilkenny could become if they commit to using the ball better out of their defence and deliver from higher up the field and between the 65-metre lines. In last year’s semi final, Kilkenny hit 13 deliveries from the area between the two 65-metre lines which saw them retain possession in the opposition half on 11 occasions — an 84% retention rate.
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Wexford 2022
Against Wexford in Walsh Park this year, Darragh Egan’s team brought something different to the game by using Diarmuid O’Keeffe as a third midfielder / fourth half-back. This saw the Kilkenny backs struggling with that extra time in possession or on the occasions when they were put under pressure in possession. This resulted in them hitting 21 long deliveries from inside their 45-metre line with a retention rate of 33%. The game saw O’Keeffe having a massive influence on the game with St. Anne’s man having 19 possessions, 10 tackles, five turnovers and four recoveries of Kilkenny deliveries.
Wexford also allowed Eoin Murphy to hit eight short puck outs to his full-back line in that game, and only three of these short puck outs resulted in possession in Wexford’s half of the pitch. The extra bodies in the Wexford defence could also be seen on Kilkenny’s long puck out as the Cats lost the breaking ball from 15 out of the 21 long puck outs which were not won cleanly.
Alarm bells should be ringing after semi-final victory
While Kilkenny had a convincing victory over Clare, the concession of 54 shots against the Banner highlights the lack of detail in how Kilkenny defend the middle third during broken play. Eighteen of these shots came from the area from Kilkenny’s 65-metre line to the Clare 45-metre line during play. Three of these shots resulted in scores but if Limerick are afforded the same room to shoot in this area of the pitch, they will hurt Cody’s men on the scoreboard.
The ability for the opposition teams to shoot from this distance often occurs due to Kilkenny’s honesty and huge work rate in this area of the pitch. The work rate of the Kilkenny half forwards can be exposed by Limerick, and it was one area which John Kiely’s men played around the Cats in 2018.
The nature of Limerick’s instructions to their half-backs means that they do not push up on the Kilkenny half-forwards, and this means that if their forwards win possession, they can recycle possession to shooters like Diarmuid Byrnes.
This scenario that occurs for Kilkenny asks a question of their inside forward line: do they hold their position inside the Limerick 45-metre or get dragged out to cover the Limerick wing-backs sitting inside their half of the pitch. It may be that they must nominate one of their inside forwards to position themselves near the 45-metre line and close from behind any Limerick wing-back who receives a recycled ball.
Limerick’s half-forward line
The All-Ireland semi-final also saw Clare’s David Fitzgerald hit nine shots from play. If Kilkenny afford Kyle Hayes this room during play, we could finally see the version of the player that we saw in 2018 and 2019 from the centre-forward position.
Against Clare, Michael Carey tried to pick up Fitzgerald who dropped deep, and Richie Reid would hold the centre of the pitch.
This allowed Clare to get a free player in their defence but the issue for Clare was they were unable to find the free player due to Kilkenny’s pressure. Limerick should be able to stand up to this pressure of this — and if Kilkenny do this against Limerick, its means they are leaving Tom Morrissey or Gearoid Hegarty. This will mean that Kilkenny wing forwards and midfielders are going to have to engage in handovers to cover these players, but the issue for the Cats management team is what Limerick player do you leave free? They can all punish you in different ways.
This asks the question about their current method as it is very hard to carry out against a team like Limerick: are the Kilkenny management better off planning to leave a Limerick player free to have an extra player of their own across the middle third of the pitch?
The difference in planning is that the Kilkenny players know if a certain Limerick player has possession, they just must stay with their own man and trust that their extra player can influence the play when the ball is delivered. When you are using handovers during play, every player is closing the player who is in possession or has a possibility of receiving a pass. If the opposition can control possession and their passes go to hand, this can lead to piggy-in-the-middle situations which sap the energy of teams.
This could be seen at times during the semi-final when David Fitzgerald was in possession and four Kilkenny players went to close him down, which left Paudie Fitzpatrick free.
I personally do not think that Kilkenny can rely on midfielders or wing-forwards picking up Morrissey or Hegarty; they need to sacrifice a forward if they want Reid to sit free in their back line.
Can Kilkenny win?
Of course Kilkenny can win on Sunday as they have the hurlers and the natural ability to win any 50/50 battle with a Limerick player. They have the ability as a team to create chaos and upset teams with Clare in 2022 and Limerick in 2019 being the classic examples.
In 2019, Kilkenny created chaos for John Kiely’s men by hitting 122 tackles in the game and forcing the Treaty men to make mistakes in possession or miss shots. Limerick were in the process of improving the way they used possession, and the pressure applied by Kilkenny meant that passes that had been sticking in previous games were being turned over by the ravenous Cats. Limerick hit 40 shots to Kilkenny’s 32 in that game with the Treaty men having an efficiency rate of 48% and the Cats having a 69% success rate.
Kilkenny challenged the Limerick system of holding their defence. It saw TJ Reid drift deep looking for possession and this saw him end the game with the ball in his hand on 19 occasions. Reid won primary possession on eight occasions and received the ball from a pass 11 times. Adrian Mullen also did a lot of damage in that game with 15 possessions which saw him win primary possession on four occasions and receive the ball from a pass 11 times. The two Ballyhale men were involved in 0-17 of Kilkenny’s 1-21 in that game and they way the two players play the game has not really changed since 2019.
The biggest issue for Kilkenny will be dealing with any tactical nuance that Limerick bring to the game. The key areas being:
- Their defence of Limerick’s short and long puck outs
- How they defend against Limerick’s half forward line
- Can they generate shots inside the Limerick 45-metre line off deliveries from their own half?
- Limerick’s back line is comfortable with dealing with high ball and Galway’s last three long deliveries in the semi-final were fielded by Finn, Hannon and Hayes. Can players like Eoin Cody continue their domination of the air in games against the Limerick defence? If they do win primary possession from long deliveries in the air can they find the room to shoot?
- Can Kilkenny exit out from their short puck outs which Limerick may allow them to hit?
Prediction
If Cian Lynch is not fit, it closes the gap between the teams and could mean that the abrasive game that Kilkenny might revert to could trouble Limerick at times.
Adrian Mullen at wing-forward on Diarmuid Byrnes could go either way as it could result in Byrnes being a platform for attacks when he is free, or the roving Mullen could create a platform for Brian Cody’s men to put pressure on the Limerick full-back line.
Kilkenny have struggled on breaking ball off their long puck-outs which could result in good news for Limerick’s midfield of Donovan and O’Donoghue on the breaks. However, they are the best team to win a long puck out cleanly so if their half-forwards can win clean possession from these restarts, they can have a run at the Limerick half-back line.
TJ Reid’s influence in games now comes from drifting around the pitch and Limerick trust their system of holding their six backs; something must break and if Reid can find the pockets of space, he will be able to pick off scores from distance.
We are judging Limerick off the previous years as the 2022 version of the team are yet to come up with one of their unbelievable performances combining their movement, use of the ball and ability to close space which sucks the life out of the opposition.
However, the 2022 version of Limerick has still proven to be better than any team Kilkenny have faced this year and this Sunday may be no different.
Winner: Limerick 5 +
Man of the Match: Kyle Hayes
