ONE OF the unfortunate aspects of the Euros and cup competitions generally is that the two best teams rarely meet in the final.
This truism certainly applies to Euro 2024.
Based on what has transpired, Spain and Germany are the best two teams in the competition by some distance.
Spain outclassed Georgia this evening despite going a goal behind in the first half.
Germany were not quite so convincing against Denmark last night but deserved to go through on the balance of play.
Few people will disagree that the Germans and the Spanish have excelled above everyone else.
But this situation defies many pre-tournament predictions where bookmakers and commentators were invariably tipping either England or France to triumph, and to a lesser degree, Portugal.
Yet those three countries have looked less assured for the most part.
Spain have been the strongest side — they are the only team with a 100% record at the Euros and seem to have turned things around dramatically since a shock 2-0 defeat by Scotland at the start of qualifying in March last year.
Luis de la Fuente’s men now have nine goals in the competition. Germany, their closest rivals, have scored 10. England have managed four. France, admittedly having played a game less, have found the net twice.
There is a freedom to Spain and Germany’s play, that has been conspicuously absent from France and England’s matches.
Of course, excuses have been made by these big, underperforming sides.
The pressure is supposedly a weight on English and French shoulders, and they have both been the subject of perceived unfair media criticism and unreasonable expectations.
So why are Spain and Germany playing so well by comparison?
A big factor is the centre of the pitch.
In Toni Kroos and Rodri, the two teams boast arguably the best midfielders in the world (though Luka Modric fans might disagree).
By contrast, throughout this tournament, England and France have been largely reliant on N’Golo Kante and Declan Rice at the base of midfield.
Both are undoubtedly excellent players, but neither can dictate games in the same way as Kroos and Rodri — and the latter was superb today, clinically scoring the crucial equalising goal from the edge of the area against Georgia that paved the way for an emphatic win.
Ex-Chelsea star Kante, playing club football in Saudi Arabia at 33, is no longer the world-class player he once was.
At Arsenal, Rice’s physical prowess is complemented by the intelligence and vision of Martin Odegaard — England have no player equivalent to the Norwegian even if Gareth Southgate might argue the absent Kalvin Phillips could have been that man.
Kroos and Rodri are crucial to getting their sides ticking. England have improved to a degree owing to Kobbie Mainoo’s introduction to the starting XI, but a stark lack of fluidity still characterises their play.
The Three Lions have survived thanks to moments of magic out of nothing as opposed to intelligent tactics or a coherent game plan.
Whether France can improve on their dour group stage showing against a hugely flawed Belgium team tomorrow remains to be seen, but the jury is very much out on Didier Deschamps and his squad.
Each of these four big sides also have a player who could fairly be described as a prodigy in attack — though granted, France’s Kylian Mbappe can surely no longer be considered a youngster at 25.
Of the quartet, 16-year-old Yamine Lamal and 21-year-old Jamal Musiala have been the most impressive.
Bayern Munich star Musiala is the tournament’s joint-top scorer with three goals. While Yamal has yet to find the net, he is the youngest player ever to feature at the Euros at 16 years and 338 days old against Croatia, and his dazzling pace and trickery have given Spain the type of wide threat they have so often lacked at previous tournaments.
21-year-old Jude Bellingham, despite perhaps producing the standout moment of individual brilliance in the tournament so far with his audacious last-gasp bicycle kick against the Slovaks earlier today, has been largely disappointing by comparison.
Described by many pundits as the player of the season in La Liga, the former Borussia Dortmund man has been anonymous for long stretches of games, with some critics even suggesting either dropping the Real Madrid star or moving him deeper so that Phil Foden can play in the number 10 role.
Mbappe has also struggled to live up to the hype, with his only goal coming from the penalty spot. Real Madrid’s new superstar has been somewhat unfortunate with a broken nose requiring him to wear a mask and causing him to miss their second-group match — a sub-par 0-0 draw with the Netherlands.
“I didn’t think it would be, but playing with a mask is absolutely horrible,” Mbappe told reporters on the eve of the Belgium clash in Duesseldorf.
Consequently, at this stage, all the signs indicate an imminent Spain or Germany triumph.
But one of those teams will be out of contention come Friday evening.
And the victors of that contest are hardly guaranteed to prevail either.
The best teams don’t always win knockout competitions — a case in point being Greece at Euro 2004 or Man United in the FA Cup last May.
From an English perspective, the main positive is that luck is on Southgate’s men’s side — they were just seconds away from a humiliation today that would have been on a par with the infamous loss to Iceland at Euro 2016.
France similarly tend to get the job done at major tournaments despite a series of average performances and will fancy their chances of defying the doubters again, as they did at the 2018 World Cup.
So Spain and Germany are the teams to beat and one of this pair should win it. But football is not always so straightforward and this unpredictability makes major tournaments consistently more enjoyable than the club game at the top level these days.
He must be thinking, “What do you people want?” Undefeated this season, joint top try scorers in the URC, probably second seeding in the champions cup and people are still complaining.
@Fagin Strauss: Well said
@Fagin Strauss: if all you care about is results that’s absolutely fine. 100% record. If you want to charge people to watch you play rugby every second week and all you serve up is fantastic defence well many people will either watch the game on TV or just wait for the result. I have bought 3 tickets at €50 a pop to bring my family to Saturdays game( like I do most home games) the boys won’t want to go to many more games if we don’t have an attack that even tries to run and pass the ball. Defence might win but if we don’t entertain we won’t be able to play the bills.
@chris mcdonnell: 100% correct. at the end of the day sport is a business and entertainment is what fans are willing to fork out on. there’s only so many times you can go to the well of ticket price increases but if the product you are selling doesn’t represent value, then people will stop going. this doesn’t just apply to leinster, it applies to all teams across all sports.
@chris mcdonnell: I am, like most Leinster fans, disappointed with how the attack has gone with Neinaber but considering the recent years of close calls and I’m willing to give it a pass for the season.
Regardless of the outcome, next season I’ll be expecting a shift in focus even if it comes with a detriment to the results but for now I’m willing to let it cook.
@Barry Moran: most seasons have gone exceptionally well until the games that really matter. He was here last season and we fell short again last season. This season will only be judged when the trophies are handed out and at that stage we can decide if this direction is the way to go. Personally I belive we have an empty trophy cabinet because of selection rather than style of play. For example we dropped james Ryan and josh VDF for last years final. Against DuPont we don’t play the best 7 we have ever had. Even during the final Ross was clearly injured for close to 8 minutes before frawley was brought on.
@Fagin Strauss: I agree about winning, they should be winning though. Any loss with the squad Leinster have is unacceptable, that’s what the standards have become. They are unbeaten this season so far but that’s the minimum expectation given the teams they’ve played.
@chris mcdonnell: Yes, yes we all know you know team selection better than any of the highly trained, highly successful coaches that actually do the job.
No one is tired of hearing about it.
@Barry Moran: He is right though,cullens team selections have been baffling at times and just right out wrong,leo has cost us a few times with his decision making
@chris mcdonnell: that’s absolute rubbish, 6O million south Africans playing the so called dros many in here claim would cut off their right arm to watch the boks play
@Fagin Strauss: LOL! It is always the way with supporters.
@chris mcdonnell: Chris… most of the opinions that you express are about demand results in the form of trophies. We cannot have it both ways. For the record, I have been to lots of Leinster games in which the attack is blistering and Leinster are out of sight by half time. Fans are bored, chatting to one another and the atmosphere drops off a cliff. I would much prefer an error strewn, tight game with strong defence. I think alot of fans would feel the same.
@Barry Moran: dropping James ryan and JVDF for a champions Cup final? Did you honestly think either before or after the game that was a good call?
@chris mcdonnell: Tbf it didn’t seem a bad call at the time with Connors but he just played so poorly in that final he made Cullen look a bit silly. I’d blame Connors more that than Cullen. The Ross Byrne selection at 10 last season cost Leinster a trophy. I reckon 20 year old Sam would’ve got the job done last year.
@Eoin H: What would be the maximum expectation? Put in a few extra games during the week and win them too?
@chris mcdonnell: Totally agree. It is all down to team selection in the end and Leo hasn’t helped in that regards the last 3 seasons.
@Fagin Strauss: You forgot to mention one of the worst scrums and lineouts in the Champions Cup and indeed URC for that matter. SA has dominant scrums and reasonably effective line outs. So if he’s trying to morph Leinster into SA, he’s wasting his time.
@chris mcdonnell: Dropped is a narrative you’ve developed yourself. Ryan had literally just come back from a 3 month injury and connors was a specific selection decision, that had worked wellagainst la rochelle, for taking down giants like Meafou.
@Ray Ridge: No he is trying to improve the Leinster defense and the last LAR game showed progress. Leinster fans view rugby through their own lens which is running rugby. Was it Alex Ferguson that said attack wins games but defense wins trophies?
@Stuart: how many of these 60 million pay to watch rugby every week? From the tv pictures half empty stadiums and lots of those are there for the water slides and fairground entertainment just as much as the rugby.
@Paul Ennis: i understand the appeal of suspense and drama. I want trophies, I want titles and i understand that we can’t always win. Simply I want leinster to be the best they can be and for the past few seasons we just have not been as good as we should when it mattered. We won’t know until may if what’s happening will be turned into titles or not but it’s an expensive business being a leinster fan who brings kids to games, buys jerseys and all the other merchandise for them. But like it or not they are not entertaining the next generation at the moment with the current style of play.
@chris mcdonnell: apart from maybe the lions I’d say based on stats recently seen, bums on seats in South Africa is well above average in relation to Ireland/UK in comparison . Can’t help infrastructure in stadia with an Aviva equivalent in every province but most games get at least a European size audience or better. Maybe a few water slides might cheer you up. I’ll strive to make you a saffa concert yet
@chris mcdonnell: Winning pays the bills, if you didn’t think Sunday was entertaining. Maybe you’re watching the wrong sport. Entertaining isn’t always about putting 50 points on poor teams.
@Eoin H: Total and utter BS!
To be honest i am not impressed with the line outs and scrum. That’s a very big concern of mine. Everything else will go in place if they sort of them issues.
I don’t understand to be honest. If I read the comments correctly, we have a terrible set piece, no attack, we’ve gotten worse relative to last year scoring and yet we’re unbeaten in all competitions, we’ve scored the most tries and points in the URC and we’re topping our table in the Champions Cup with top 2 firmly in sight. And people aren’t happy because it’s not fancy enough? As a Leinster fan I must say, some Leinster fans on here are an embarrassment.
@PJ Smith: worst part is it’s mostly the gobs that don’t support Leinster that called us soft and bottlers that are now saying well your attacks rubbish.
@PJ Smith: we also have by far best squad of players in the URC and the most expensive side in the league to watch. I spend my money to watch leinster so forgive me if I want to see leinster players running and passing the ball to one another.
@PJ Smith: As a Leinster fan, you can’t but be happy for them. If they get their defence nailed, they can work more on their attack. In a final, if they get there, the defence is what counts, first and foremost. As for Chris, well, he’s just a moan. He’ll always find something to moan about with Leinster. If it’s not Leo, it’s Ross. If it’s not them, it’s their attack……
Hold on there Jacques. Ireland had THE meanest defense in the 6N over the last few years under Faz’s coaching. 1 try per game we shipped!! We also attacked like a hornets nest and scored for fun. I say Ireland as most starters in blue are also in green. How do u forget the enjoyable stuff of slick passing and intricate movement so fast??? Brainwashed into “The System” I guess?
@Noel Lynn: it also took a couple of years to get there if memory serves
Can’t argue with the results this season but I find the style absolutely horrible to watch, to be honest. Leinster has always been noted for its exciting and exhilarating back play – that disappeared the day Nienaber arrived. Incredible defence but the attack just consists of barrelling up the pitch through one off runners most of the time. Incredibly effective but so boring to watch – which pains me to say.
@Aidan Farrell: Nienaber’s job description was make the defense like the Bok’s defense (absolutely horrible to play against) and it looks he’s achieved that. He doesn’t coach the attack. While it looks like the energy/focus employed to implement the defensive gameplan may have an impact on the attack, I think the finger should be pointed at Cullen/Bleyendaal fir that. We were told it was Goodmans fault but he’s gone now and the attack is even worse
The SA way works with a 6-2 split and extremely quick wingers.
@chris mcdonnell: And vegetables stay fresh longer if you keep them in the fridge. Join us next week for more random facts unrelated to the article!
@Sambo: But it is related to the article as Nienaber talks about a system, which includes 6:2, 5:3 split as well. The key difference is the quick wingers. For me the quickest wingers would include the 2 Osborne brothers and JO’B.
@Con Cussed: also understood comment was related to article. SA have lightning fast wingers who can score direct from turnovers or are able to scramble effectively. So they compliment the defensive strategy very well. This may be a weakness in the Leinster version which could be shown up against the top sides (basically only UBB, Toulouse or Sharks at home with their full complement of boks)
@Sambo: did you read the article it’s all about his SA system and the bench is a massive part of that as to is the fast wingers.
@Michael Corkery: that’s the issue with our attack, our wingers are not quick enough to score on the counter attack without support and everyone else has put in massive energy sapping phases in defence to win the ball so we just don’t have the numbers to support or attack. The extra forward in a 6 -2 helps with that
https://www.planetrugby.com/news/stuart-barnes-claims-jacques-nienabers-springboks-esque-approach-could-be-leinsters-undoing
@Patrick byrne: If Stuart Barnes says something, it’s a good idea to back the opposite