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Townend celebrates winning with State Man. Tom Maher/INPHO
Analysis

Donn McClean: State Man not quite at Hurricane Fly's level yet but has serious potential

Five-year-old won well at Punchestown yesterday.

STATE MAN WAS good in winning the Morgiana Hurdle at Punchestown yesterday. 

He did everything well. He travelled well through his race for Paul Townend, he moved to the front on the run around the home turn, he quickened up smartly on the run to the final flight, and he kept on well to win nicely. 

If you had taken some of the odds-on about Willie Mullins’ horse winning the race, if you had bet the nine to win the four, you would have been fairly comfortable at just about every stage of the race.

There was substance to the performance too. 

His two main rivals, his two stable companions Sharjah and Saldier, are both high-class hurdlers, both rated in the low 160s. 

Between them, that pair had won three of the previous four renewals of the Morgiana Hurdle and eight Grade 1 races in total, as well as two Galway Hurdles. 

They set a high standard by which you could measure State Man’s capabilities, on his first foray into open Grade 1 company. 

And the winning time was over five seconds faster than the time that Nusret clocked in winning the juveniles’ hurdle run over the same course and distance a hundred minutes earlier. 

It wasn’t a flawless performance mind you. State Man was a little big at the first flight, and he got in tight to the fourth last, and he wasn’t as quick at the third last as Saldier was in front of him or Sharjah was behind him. 

But you can view that as a positive too, the fact that he was able to win as readily as he did given that his jumping wasn’t perfect. Room for improvement.

The best Champion Hurdlers were fundamentally brilliant hurdlers. Istabraq, Hardy Eustace, Hurricane Fly, they were cat-like at their obstacles and gained ground on their rivals over their hurdles. 

ruby-walsh-on-hurricane-fly-wins Comparisons are being made with Hurricane Fly. Lorraine O'Sullivan / INPHO Lorraine O'Sullivan / INPHO / INPHO

State Man isn’t there yet, but he is young, still only five, and has bundles of potential for improvement.

Marie Donnelly’s horse has run just six times in his life. He fell at the second last flight when still travelling well in a maiden hurdle at Leopardstown last Christmas on his first run in Ireland, before he easily landed a maiden hurdle at Limerick in February.  

He went to the Cheltenham Festival in March and won the County Hurdle, before returning to Ireland for the Punchestown Festival and running out an impressive winner of the Grade 1 Alanna Homes Champion Novice Hurdle.

Yesterday’s run was a good start to his 2022/23 campaign – victory in a race that his trainer has now won 11 times in the last 12 years – a campaign that will be geared to see him, all going well, travel back to Cheltenham in March and line up in the Champion Hurdle. 

Yesterday’s race sponsors, and Champion Hurdle race sponsors, Unibet, who named yesterday’s race in memory of Michael Rafferty @AnaglogsDaughtr, saw enough in the performance to cut State Man’s odds for the Champion Hurdle from 9/1 to 6/1. 

That puts him into the Champion Hurdle picture, but it still leaves him just third best according to the market, behind Honeysuckle and Constitution Hill. 

Honeysuckle and Constitution Hill are a formidable duo. 

Honeysuckle has never been beaten. Sixteen runs, 16 wins – 17 if you include her point-to-point – including the last two Champion Hurdles. She is a phenomenon. 

Henry de Bromhead’s mare is set to make her seasonal debut, as usual, in the Hatton’s Grace Hurdle at Fairyhouse in two weeks’ time, and you can’t wait to see her race again.

 

Constitution Hill was a brilliant novice last season, winner of his three races, including the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham by 22 lengths. 

We thought that we would see him on Saturday, he was all set to make his seasonal return in the Coral Hurdle at Ascot, but trainer Nicky Henderson and jockey Nico de Boinville walked the track on Saturday morning and determined that the ground was too fast. 

The merits and demerits and implications of that decision have been widely debated since, but Constitution Hill’s defection from Saturday’s race now leaves connections with a conundrum. 

They have to re-plot the route of his journey back to Cheltenham in March.  They have to find another race for his seasonal return.

There is the Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle this Saturday, and that is a real option, but Henderson has had Epatante earmarked for that race for a while.  Of course, the two stable companions could take each other on; Willie Mullins ran three in the Morgiana Hurdle.

If not the Fighting Fifth, there is the Gerry Feilden Hurdle at Newbury, also on Saturday, but that looks unlikely. 

If not Saturday, there is the International Hurdle at Cheltenham, but that’s next month, that’s on 10th December, and that’s getting very close to potential Christmas targets, the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton and the Matheson Hurdle at Leopardstown.

Solution soon.  Enjoy the journey.

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