Overview
BELGIUM MAY BE ranked as the world’s second-best team, but they are not without problems at Euro 2016.
Marc Wilmots’ side — who lost their opening match 2-0 against Italy — have travelled to the tournament without a number of key defenders, including Vincent Kompany, while certain key players such as Christian Benteke and Eden Hazard have struggled for form with their clubs this season.
The team’s flaws were evident at times during the Euro 2016 qualifiers also.
At first glance, it seems like the Red Devils did a reasonable job, topping the group and losing just once.
Yet despite having a number of talented players at their disposal, the Belgians often found it tricky breaking down teams who put numbers behind the ball. They could only mirror Ireland’s 1-1 result away to Bosnia, while they narrowly avoided embarrassment in Cyprus, with Eden Hazard’s 86th-minute goal getting them out of jail and earning a 1-0 win.
Moreover, against a resolute but limited Wales team, they found the going extremely tough, failing to score a single goal in two matches against Chris Coleman’s side, drawing 0-0 at home and losing 1-0 away.
Hence, while their attack is regarded as their strongest attribute, Belgium’s defence was arguably more impressive in the qualifiers, as they conceded just five goals in 10 games.
Nevertheless, with defenders Nicolas Lombaerts, Bjorn Engels, Dedryck Boyata and captain Vincent Kompany all ruled out through injury, the Belgians are looking a little depleted at the back all of a sudden.
Furthermore, the game analysed below — the 1-0 loss to Wales at Cardiff City Stadium just over a year ago — comes with the caveat that at least one of those involved will not play against Ireland.
And while the Wales games in particular highlighted their lack of fluidity in attack, it must be acknowledged that there were times during the campaign, such as the respective 3-1 home wins over Bosnia and Israel, that the Belgians’ forward line looked far more formidable.
Team and formations
Away to Wales, Belgium played as they invariably do with a 4-3-3 formation. And while it is unlikely to be any different against Ireland, there could be a couple of changes in personnel.
The team that day was as follows: Courtois; Alderweireld (Ferreira-Carrascoat 76), Denayer, Lombaerts, Vertonghen; Nainggolan, Witsel; Mertens (Lukaku 45), De Bruyne, Hazard; Benteke.
The team that faces Ireland is likely to be closer to the following XI that faced Italy: Courtois; Ciman, Alderweireld, Vermaelen, Vertonghen; Witsel, Nainggolan, Fellaini; De Bruyne, Hazard; Lukaku.
Having only come on at half-time in Wales, Romelu Lukaku is virtually certain to start against Ireland, while the same cannot be said of Christian Benteke. In addition, with Lombaerts out, Barcelona reserve Thomas Vermaelen is expected to be the man to come in in his place (he started the Italy game).
Moreover, if you’re wondering why there’s no sign of Kompany and Fellaini in the first line-up, it’s because both were unavailable through suspension and injury respectively at the time.
Pattern established early on
The pattern for the match became evident pretty quickly. Belgium dominated possession and patiently probed, while Wales stuck men behind the ball and attempted to counter quickly.
There were early signs of Belgian vulnerability, as Bale broke from deep down the right and ended up winning a corner.
As the highlights package below illustrates, the Real Madrid star had an influential match, frequently causing his opponents problems.
Consequently, another lightning-fast attacker, Ireland striker Shane Long, could enjoy a similarly fruitful afternoon against Belgium’s defenders.
Belgium fail to turn possession dominance into superiority on the scoresheet
Despite the match being in Cardiff, Belgium well and truly dominated possession. Over the course of 90 minutes, they had 65% of the ball.
Yet the Red Devils were incredibly wasteful throughout the 90 minutes — of their 18 shots, just one hit the target — and thus, they rarely looked like scoring against a supremely well-organised Welsh backline.
Belgium grew frustrated by Wales’ disciplined defence quite quickly. Long before half-time, they were hitting aimless passes that their rivals dealt with easily.
Ireland, like Wales, are well used to sitting back and letting other teams have the ball — they did it twice against Germany, and to a lesser extent, in the games with Poland and Bosnia.
Belgium are a far more talented side that the Boys in Green on paper, so expect a similar backs-to-the-wall performance on Saturday.
Martin O’Neill’s men conceded just once over two games against Germany, and so undoubtedly also have the potential to frustrate the Belgians.
Belgium’s nervy backline
Despite dominating large parts of the match, Belgium’s defence looked uneasy at times.
On the rare occasions Wales attacked, their rivals looked uncomfortable dealing with their direct play, and also struggled at set pieces at times.
At one point early on, Chelsea goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois uncharacteristically sliced a clearance under pressure from a Welsh attacker.
Notice below how Denayer fails to deal with (goal-scoring hero of the Slovakia match) Hal Robson-Kanu’s lung-bursting run, ultimately giving away a silly free-kick from which the goal was scored.
It may seem like a relatively minor incident (particularly given that both players were guilty of infringements, and Robson-Kanu was lucky to get awarded the decision). Yet the 20-year-old Man City centre-back, who spent last season on loan at Galatasaray, unquestionably showed his lack of experience in that instance and games are often decided on such fine margins, as this particular encounter was.
Belgium were ultimately made to pay for their defensive inadequacy after another individual error.
This time, Roma midfielder Radja Nainggolan was at fault, as his poorly judged header went straight to Gareth Bale, and Wales’ talisman made no mistake with an excellent finish.
Consequently, despite having not been put under undue pressure, and even with players of the calibre of Jan Vertonghen and Toby Alderweireld in the side, the Belgians’ defence was surprisingly below-par and error-strewn on this occasion.
And while both Vertonghen and Alderweireld often tend to play full-back rather than centre-back for Belgium, Shane Long gave the duo a torrid time back in May when Southampton beat Tottenham 2-1 — an important psychological boost for the Tipperary native more than anything else.
Star men show glimpses of class
Last year’s match was perhaps a sign of things to come for Eden Hazard.
The attacking midfielder was just coming off a Premier League campaign where he had been named PFA Player of the Year and inspired Jose Mourinho’s Chelsea to the title.
However, as would be the case for much of the following season, Hazard looked ineffectual for the most part that night in June.
There were one or two occasions where the star man threatened to produce a moment of magic, however, his final ball or shot was ultimately not good enough on the few occasions where he found himself in a promising position.
Similarly, Kevin De Bruyne, then of Wolfsburg, had a quiet enough game.
These two players can be world-class on their day, but it’s a testament to Wales’ rigorous defence that they looked anything but in this instance.
Similarly, Ireland will need to mark the duo extremely tightly. De Bruyne did come close on one occasion, when he was awarded half a yard of space by the Welsh defence (see below) — something which the Irish defence can’t afford to allow happen on a regular basis.
In addition, while he didn’t score that night, he has managed 17 league goals in the past two seasons coupled with numerous assists.
And while Hazard has not enjoyed the best of seasons with Chelsea, managing just four goals in 30 league appearances (in contrast with 14 in 38 the previous campaign), there have been signs recently that the 25-year-old is back to his best — all four aforementioned goals in question came in his last five Premier League appearances.
Ireland must replicate Wales’ intelligent positivity
While Belgium were unquestionably the dominant side for much of the match, one especially impressive element of Wales’ performance was their ability to combine long periods without much possession in tandem with sudden attacking bursts.
The reason late goals tend to be pretty common in these type of situations is that teams don’t really know how to properly defend leads — look at England against Russia last Saturday.
The temptation is to sit further and further back, inviting pressure, but this strategy usually feels akin to playing Russian roulette.
Wales defended their lead in an intelligent manner, combining disciplined defence with a willingness to get plenty of bodies forward when the opportunities arose.
Not only does such ambition increase your chances of scoring, it also gives the defence a sustained period of much-needed respite and stops the backline being bombarded to the point of submission, as can so often be the case.
Check out the two images below — despite Wales holding a 1-0 lead with less than half an hour remaining, they are still willing to play with a sense of adventure and get bodies forward at will.
Ireland must also consequently strike the right balance between defence and attack — as they already have in the Germany home match — in order to be successful against the Belgians.
Conclusion
Despite their high reputation and array of talented players to choose from, Wales last year showed how poor Belgium can be made to look against a hard-working and well-organised side.
Martin O’Neill will have noted how the Belgian backline struggled at times to cope with the pace and physicality of players such as Gareth Bale and Hal Robson-Kanu while also urging Ireland’s star forward Shane Long to cause similar chaos.
Also of intrigue was how talented players such as Thibaut Courtois, Jason Denayer and Radja Nainggolan were making basic and at times costly errors largely owing to Wales’ Ireland-esque direct style and high intensive pressing, with attack the first line of defence.
In addition, the Irish team would be wise to study how the Welsh side forced their opponents to play much of the game in front of them, rarely getting in behind the defence. The likes of Hazard and De Bruyne were isolated and ineffectual as a result, with the team reduced to badly executed Hollywood passes and hopeful pot shots — as indicated by the fact that they hit the target just once in the entire game.
Lastly, it’s important that Ireland don’t drop too deep defensively (as they unfortunately did against Sweden) and know when to show the kind of attacking ambition that Wales adopted at the right times — a challenging prospect, but a balance they already successfully managed in the home encounter with Germany.
However, even if all this advice is taken on board, there is every chance that the Irish side will be undone by a moment of magic from Hazard, De Bruyne, Lukaku or one of their plethora of stars in the Belgium side.
On the other hand, as the Germany and Bosnia games demonstrated, Ireland are capable of beating good sides on their day, so the Boys in Green emulating Wales’ famous win is hardly an inconceivable prospect.
The42 is on Snapchat! Tap the button below on your phone to add!
