MICROSOFT CORTANA IS a virtual personal assistant that is — for the want of something better to do we suppose — picking every single game this NFL season.
It has enjoyed a decent hit rate, last week predicting 10 of the 14 games correctly to bring it to 48-29 (62%) for the year.
Cortana missed on the Chiefs and Ravens — which lost in two of the biggest upsets of the season — and also fell into the trap of favouring home teams by predicting the Titans and Chargers would come out on top.
This week — and for the first time all season — Cortana and the Las Vegas oddsmakers are in complete agreement, but how will we do in picking on gut and based on what we’ve seen from the teams on the field this season.
Let’s see:
Atlanta Falcons (-3) at New Orleans Saints (Thursday)
Cortana’s pick: Falcons have a 60% chance of winning
The42′s pick: This is a weird trap game for the 5-0 Falcons. Divisional games are always tricky to call but the Saints have managed just one win at home since October 2014 so we’ll take Atlanta in this one too.
Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at Buffalo Bills
Cortana’s pick: Bengals have a 52% chance of winning
The42′s pick: Cincinnati came from 17 points down in the second half to beat the Seattle Seahawks last week. They’re playing a Bills team with serious question marks about the fitness of their running backs and quarterback. The Bengals easily for us.
Houston Texans (-1.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Cortana’s pick: The Texans have a 53% chance of winning
The42′s pick: The AFC South is a tyre fire of a division where even the best team — the Indianapolis Colts — are terrible. Jacksonville’s Blake Bortles is on course to throw more than 30 touchdowns this season and he’ll lead the Jaguars to victory this weekend.
Kansas City Chiefs (+3.5) at Minnesota Vikings
Cortana’s pick: The Vikings have a 61% chance of winning
The42′s pick: With Jamaal Charles, the Chiefs actually had a decent chance in the is game but, without him, Kansas City offer nothing on offence. Vikings to take the win.
Denver Broncos (-4) at Cleveland Browns
Cortana’s pick: — Broncos have a 64% chance of winning
The42′s pick: Peyton Manning is playing horribly and yet Denver remain undefeated as their defence continue to bail them out. The Browns offensive line has already given up 18 sacks this season and won’t be able to protect their quarterback. Broncos by six.
Chicago Bears (+3) at Detroit Lions
Cortana’s pick: The Lions have a 67% chance of winning.
The42′s pick: This is why you can’t trust computers. The Lions are beyond help. They can’t score and they can’t stop teams scoring. The Bears with Jay Culter — as he has proven two weeks in a row — are an altogether different beast and will comfortably beat the spread.
Miami Dolphins (+2.5) at Tennessee Titans
Cortana’s pick: The Titans have a 58% chance of winning.
The42′s pick: This is one of the closer games to call as the Titans should have won last week too but suffered from poor play in the secondary and conservative play-calling on offensive. Still, Tennessee by three for us.
Carolina Panthers (+7) at Seattle Seahawks
Cortana’s pick: The Seahawks have a 58% chance of winning.
The42′s pick: The Panthers have had one of the easiest schedules in the NFL up until now but their undefeated run is sure to come to a halt in Seattle this weekend. This is not the Seahawks we’ve known over the last few years but they’re still good enough to take care of Carolina.
Washington (+6) at New York Jets
Cortana’s pick: The Jets have a 70% chance of winning.
The42′s pick: The Jets are a top ten team, they’re coming off a bye week and hoping to keep pace with the New England Patriots in the race for the AFC East. And yet we still think the spread is too generous against a Washington team which has already recorded wins over two top-ten defences this season.
San Diego Chargers (+10) at Green Bay Packers
Cortana’s pick: The Packers have a 78% chance of winning.
The42′s pick: Double digit spreads are always scary but the Rams are a much better team than the Chargers and they still lost by 14 in Wisconsin last Sunday. Expect a similar margin of victory for the Packers this week.
Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) at San Francisco 49ers
Cortana’s pick: The Ravens have a 61% chance of winning.
The42′s pick: With a combined win/loss record of 2-8 the real question here is does anyone really care which one of them comes out on top? The line is just tempting enough to think the Ravens can get the job done.
Arizona Cardinals (-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Cortana’s pick: The Steelers have a 55% chance of winning.
The42′s pick: Again, we’re going to have to disagree with Cortana. The Steelers are coming off a short week where they only just squeaked a win against the Chargers. The Cardinals look well set to make a deep playoff run and they’ll bring their record to 5-1.
New England Patriots (-8) at Indianapolis Colts
Cortana’s pick: The Patriots have a 70% chance of winning
The42′s pick: This really could be a massacre given the form the New England offence is in. The Colts are not built to win a time of possession battle and the Patriots are likely to get very near 50 points in what should be a comfortable win.
New York Giants (+4) at Philadelphia Eagles
Cortana’s pick: The Eagles have a 56% chance of winning
The42′s pick: Big Blue may have started the season by throwing away two games back-t0-back but they’ve been virtually flawless ever since. The loss of Prince Amukamara on defence is making us a little nervous but we’re still going with the Giants to beat the spread.
May the best man/computer win.
