IF SOUTH AFRICA pull it off tonight and make it back-to-back World Cup successes, they will have done it the hard way.
One thing that was thrown at them last time in 2019 was that their pathway to the final wasn’t as taxing as it might have been. They did lose their opening match to New Zealand, which meant they ended up as the first-ever World Cup winners to lose a game along the way, but wins over Namibia, Italy, Canada, Japan, and Wales followed before they beat England in the final.
This time around, there’s no doubt that the Springboks have had to claw their way through a deeply demanding draw, which is one of the reasons that New Zealand are viewed as the slight favourites for tonight’s final [KO 8pm Irish time, RTÉ/Virgin Media] in some quarters.
Rassie Erasmus’ men opened their tournament with a hard-fought win against Scotland, ranked fifth in the world, before a handy one against Romania. Their next match was a huge battle with Ireland, then ranked number one, that they came out on the wrong side of. Their pool campaign closed with a fairly bruising encounter against a Tonga side desperate to prove a point.
The quarter-finals pitted South Africa against the hosts, a brilliant France side. Again, the Boks had to dig deep to edge the game on a one-point margin. Last weekend, they just about survived a huge scare against a fired-up, focused England team, needing a late, late penalty to win by a point again.
Tonight, Erasmus’ men must dip into the emotional well one more time if they’re to become the first nation to win four World Cups and only the second to go back-to-back.
New Zealand were the first to do that, while they’re also fighting for their nation’s fourth Webb Ellis Cup in this intriguing decider between the two greatest World Cup sides.
And in contrast to the Boks, the Kiwis have had a smoother ride into the final. They did open their campaign with a tough loss to the French but then cantered past Namibia, Italy, and Uruguay. The quarter-final required Ian Foster’s men to go to an incredible level to beat Ireland, but their semi-final victory over Argentina was comparatively facile.
Foster was able to haul off key players with more than a quarter of the game left and the Kiwis clearly weren’t operating at 100%. They have also had an extra day of recovery after their semi-final last Friday, with the Boks playing last Saturday.
How much difference those schedules make will be clear tonight. Erasmus and Jacques Nienaber will surely tell their players how battle-hardened they are and there won’t be anyone lacking in motivation for such a grand occasion.
The South Africans’ sheer mental resolve has stood out again recently. There is surely no other nation with their bloody-mindedness and relentlessness. We won’t pretend to understand the true nature of life in South Africa or its complex history, but it’s a nation that produces brutal, uncompromising, adaptable, and resilient rugby players.
The Boks are rightly lauded for their physicality but that can lead to their intelligence, skill, and innovative streak being overlooked. They’re clearly massive human beings with immense power but as Irish assistant coach Felix Jones rightly pointed out this week, even their ability to win collisions requires skill, not just brute force.
Erasmus and Nienaber have a wonderfully creative edge that sees them defy convention at times, as with the 7/1 bench split of forwards and backs for tonight that brings obvious risk but also potentially decisive upside.
That 7/1 bench is the only real selection surprise for this final, with Faf de Klerk and Handré Pollard reinstated as the Boks’ starting halfbacks, their 25th Test start together – a new Springboks record.
The All Blacks, meanwhile, have made one change as Brodie Retallick swaps in for Sam Whitelock. That the experienced Nepo Lualala is included on the bench ahead of the more agile and younger Fletcher Newell is an indication of the scrum contest they expect from ferocious Boks replacement loosehead Ox Nché and the rest of the Bomb Squad.
These are two hugely experienced teams. The Springboks have a South African record-setting 987 caps in their starting team, while the All Blacks have 981.
New Zealand’s Beauden Barrett, Brodie Retallick, Sam Whitelock, Aaron Smith, and captain Sam Cane are all survivors of their 2015 final victory, with Whitelock now becoming the only men’s player to feature in three finals. He also won in 2011.
The Springboks’s starting XV includes 10 players who started the 2019 final in Bongi Mbonambi, Frans Malherbe, Eben Etzebeth, captain Siya Kolisi, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Duane Vermeulen, de Klerk, Pollard, Damian de Allende and Cheslin Kolbe, while Steven Kitshoff and Franco Mostert came off the bench in Tokyo. Their one replacement back tonight, Willie Le Roux, also started in 2019.
So there are lots of players who know how to get it done.
The All Blacks have traditionally been defined as the most skillful team in the game and their resurgence in the past year has brought that characteristic back into the spotlight. To see Kiwi players catching, fixing defenders, and releasing passes is a great joy. Watching the likes of Will Jordan – 31 tries in 30 Tests – chip and regather to score, running with poise and balance and intent, is a genuine thrill.
Those things have become more apparent again partly because the New Zealanders have become better organised, with former Ireland boss Joe Schmidt clearly having a major influence in their turnaround.
The Kiwis have also upped the physicality for some of their biggest performances under Foster, most obviously for that win over Ireland when the likes of captain Cane reminded everyone of how much hurt they can dish out in contact. With forwards coach Jason Ryan a key driver, their set-piece has become a force again.
While improving defensively thanks to Scott McLeod’s tweaked defensive system, which has also been influenced by Schmidt, the All Blacks have honed the clinical mindset that made them great in the past. They have been ruthless with their try-scoring chances in recent weeks.
If the Boks at their best are belligerent, as one South African colleague described them this week, the Kiwis are cool and clinical.
For all of these reasons, tonight’s final is a fascinating match-up. The last time these sides played, the Boks handed the Kiwis a pasting in their final World Cup warm-up game. It seems unlikely to be the case tonight in what is expected to be a tight, tense battle.
Rain is forecast in Paris but the hope is that we get to see all of these wonderful characteristics of both teams in full flight and full force.
New Zealand:
- 15. Beauden Barrett
- 14. Will Jordan
- 13. Rieko Ioane
- 12. Jordie Barrett
- 11. Mark Telea
- 10. Richie Mo’unga
- 9. Aaron Smith
- 1. Ethan de Groot
- 2. Codie Taylor
- 3. Tyrel Lomax
- 4. Brodie Retallick
- 5. Scott Barrett
- 6. Shannon Frizell
- 7. Sam Cane (captain)
- 8. Ardie Savea
Replacements:
- 16. Samisoni Taukei’aho
- 17. Tamaiti Williams
- 18. Nepo Laulala
- 19. Sam Whitelock
- 20. Dalton Papali’i
- 21. Finlay Christie
- 22. Damian McKenzie
- 23. Anton Lienert-Brown
South Africa:
- 15. Damian Willemse
- 14. Kurt-Lee Arendse
- 13. Jesse Kriel
- 12. Damian de Allende
- 11. Cheslin Kolbe
- 10. Handré Pollard
- 9. Faf de Klerk
- 1. Steven Kitshoff
- 2. Bongi Mbonambi
- 3. Frans Malherbe
- 4. Eben Etzebeth
- 5. Franco Mostert
- 6. Siya Kolisi (captain)
- 7. Pieter-Steph du Toit
- 8. Duane Vermeulen
Replacements:
- 16. Deon Fourie
- 17. Ox Nche
- 18. Trevor Nyakane
- 19. Jean Kleyn
- 20. RG Snyman
- 21. Kwagga Smith
- 22. Jasper Wiese
- 23. Willie le Roux
Referee: Wayne Barnes [England].
