THE TRADITIONAL POWERS can seem totally unwilling to open the doors to potential upstarts in international rugby. That doesn’t prevent shocks from happening.
Three of the most memorable occasions at the last World Cup in 2019 were upsets. Hosts Japan played a thrilling style of rugby to beat Ireland and Scotland, earning a first-ever quarter-final, while Uruguay had an emotional win against Fiji in their opening game.
In fairness, Fiji aren’t one of the traditional powers and they go to World Cups aiming to upset the applecart by beating the biggest nations. Few who watched it will ever forget the Flying Fijians’ rousing victory against Wales at the 2007 World Cup, a win that sent them into the quarter-finals.
Back in 2015, Japan produced one of the great World Cup shocks. Their last-gasp success against South Africa was eventually made into a film, The Brighton Miracle.
In 2011, Tonga rocked France. There’s usually at least one stirring upset at every World Cup, so where will it come from this time around?
The obvious place to start is Pool C, where Australia and Wales are joined by Fiji, Georgia, and Portugal. The Portuguese are minnows as they get set for their second World Cup appearance, and they’ll be aiming to cause their upsets against Georgia and Fiji.
For their part, the Georgians and Fijians will be hoping to topple the Wallabies and Wales. Australia have had a poor start to the new Eddie Jones era, while Wales had a dire Six Nations campaign this year after Warren Gatland took over.
The Wallabies are currently ranked eighth in the world, with Wales just behind. We know that things can come together quickly for World Cups, but it’s fair to say that the Aussies and the Welsh aren’t looking too hot right now.
Fiji kicked off their build-up to the tournament with a fine win over Tonga last weekend. The powerhouse Josua Tuisova made his first Test start at inside centre, having shone there all season for Lyon after moving from the wing, earning a place in the Top 14 team of the season. There was a mixture of power and flair in the forward pack, while debutant Caleb Muntz showed promise at out-half, a problem position for Fiji in the past.
Muntz is one of 19 Fijian Drua players in the current squad, with that group carrying momentum into the national team from Super Rugby Pacific. Having won just twice in their maiden season in 2022, the Drua had six victories this year and earned a place in the play-offs.
Wins over the Crusaders, Rebels, Hurricanes, and Reds in Fiji were superb, while the Drua also won both clashes against Moana Pasifika. The Drua squad is entirely made up of Fijian players and they play their home games in either Lautoka or Suva on Fijian soil, so there is no doubt the team has been massive for the development of Fijian rugby.
How soon that translates into Fiji being a stronger proposition at international level remains to be seen. They lost head coach Vern Cotter in February of this year when he resigned for personal reasons, a big blow so close to the World Cup. Former Fiji and Saracens lock Simon Raiwalui took over and his coaching team includes ex-Clermont and Leicester back Seremaia Bai, as well as ex-All Black Darryl Gibson, and former Test referee Glen Jackson.
With blockbusting backs like Tuisova, Semi Radradra, and Waisea Nayacalevu, as well as punchy forwards like Peceli Yato, Levani Botia, and Sam Matavesi, the Fijians have talent and physicality.
The same is true of Georgia, whose brilliant rise we wrote about recently. Their U20s had wins over Italy and Argentina recently, their Black Lion club will be in the Challenge Cup next season, and the Lelos have beaten Wales and Italy in the past year. With power up front and fullback sensation Davit Niniashvili in their backline, they have danger written all over them for Australia and the Welsh.
Meanwhile, Pool D of this World Cup is tricky to predict. England, Japan, and Argentina are joined by Samoa and Chile in a potentially dramatic group.
England had another bad Six Nations this year and though they will hope to be better after a full pre-season under Steve Borthwick, the others in Pool D will clearly have plans to cause them more pain.
The Argentinians are capable of producing huge performances and while consistency has eluded them, the wily Michael Cheika and his sidekick Felipe Contepomi should have them well-primed for a good tilt at the knock-out stages.
They were poor against New Zealand a few weeks ago but their win away to Australia in round two of the Rugby Championship showed their promise. This weekend’s visit to South Africa will help to give us a more complete picture, but they beat England and New Zealand last year. Write them off at your peril.
Japan were the stars of the World Cup last time and have the same duo of Jamie Joseph and Tony Brown in charge, with John Mitchell now there as defence specialist, while there are lots of familiar faces in the playing squad too. Japan’s League One competition is steadily improving, but it feels like the Brave Blossoms have hovered rather than kicked on since 2019. The pandemic certainly didn’t help.
Their build-up to this one hasn’t started well, with two defeats to the All Blacks XV followed by a narrow loss to Samoa on Japanese soil last weekend. A red card for back row Michael Leitch for a high tackle in the 30th minute was costly.
This World Cup is crucial for Japan as they bid to copperfasten a place as one of two invitational teams in the new Nations Championship competition that kicks off in 2026, although that’s true of all the countries vying for those spots.
Japan will hope for an improvement against Tonga this weekend, while they’ll also take on Fiji and Italy next month before the World Cup.
Samoa’s confidence will have been boosted by last weekend’s result in Sapporo and they’re certainly a team to watch in the World Cup. Headed up by Seilala Mapusua, their coaching ticket of Leinster’s Andrew Goodman, Tom Coventry, Tana Umaga, Mahonri Schwalger, and Tusi Pisi is impressive.
Leinster tighthead Michael Ala’alatoa is the captain, while the squad has been bolstered by additions like ex-All Blacks Lima Sopoaga, Steven Luatua, and Charlie Faumuina, former Wallaby Christian Leali’ifano, and ex-USA tighthead Titi Lamositele.
With other quality operators like La Rochelle centre UJ Seuteni, Lyon back row Jordan Taufua, and Saracens sensation Theo McFarland in the mix, it’s an excellent Samoan squad.
Chile’s journey to the World Cup rightly captured the imagination of rugby fans everywhere and they will have great support in their first-ever appearance at the competition. Given that they’re currently the lowest-ranked team in the World Cup in 22, if they can pull off a win, it would be the shock of all shocks.
The two heavyweights in Pool A are hosts France and New Zealand, with Italy tasked with slowing them down.
A first-ever win over Australia last autumn gave Italy a taste of knocking over one of the game’s traditional powers and they played some excellent rugby in this year’s Six Nations, but still lost all five games. Beating the French or Kiwis would be their greatest achievement in the sport.
Uruguay and Namibia make up Pool A and they’ll target an Italian scalp. The majority of the Uruguayan squad also plays for the Peñarol team that claimed the Super Rugby Americas title last month, so their cohesion should help while they’re topped up by some France-based stars including the outstanding Castres scrum-half Santiago Arata.
Last time around, Esteban Meneses’ side built everything around shocking Fiji in their opening game, so it makes sense if they have targeted their Italy clash on 20 September in this tournament.
This is Namibia’s seventh World Cup but they have yet to win a game, coming agonisingly close against Georgia in 2019. The Welwitschias are coached by former Springboks boss Allister Coetzee while they were boosted last year by the addition of Melbourne Rebels back row Richard Hardwick after he was told he wasn’t in Australia’s plans.
And what of Pool B, which includes Ireland? It’s hard to know exactly how to position Scotland, currently ranked fifth in the world but generally seen as being behind Ireland and the Springboks in the battle for quarter-finals spots.
Gregor Townsend’s men open their pool campaign against the Boks and then conclude it by taking on Ireland in what could be a high-stakes contest in Paris on 7 October. It might not be that shocking if the Scots qualified from the pool, but it would upset many predictions.
Tonga are another side we have covered recently and their build-up continues this weekend against Japan. Boosted by the additions of high-quality players like the influential Charles Piutau, Israel Folau, Adam Coleman, Malakai Fekitoa, Lopeti Timani, Vaea Fifita, Pita Ahki, George Moala, and Augustine Pulu, it’s certainly an impressive Tongan squad.
Whether it all comes together for the World Cup remains to be seen, but there’s no doubt they are a threat worth respecting.
Romania are the minnows here. They beat Chile last autumn before losing to Uruguay and Tonga, with head coach Andy Robinson resigning in the wake of that campaign. Eugen Apjok, a former player for the Oaks, has stepped up but has a tough job on his hands.
Warm-up games against the US, Georgia, and Italy next month will tell us more about what to expect from a squad that includes legendary captain Mihai Macovei, who is now a centurion. Romania have won six games at previous World Cups and they’ll likely see the Tonga clash as their best bet this time.
With just over a month until the tournament kicks off, 13 of the 20 competing nations are in action this weekend and some of the underdogs are building momentum.
