1. Goals win games
An interesting statistic came to our attention ahead of Sunday’s Munster hurling final.
Taking points scored in the last five championship matches between the counties, just two separates them, with Waterford slightly ahead on 89 compared to Tipp’s 87.
The glaring difference is in goals scored, however, with Tipperary bagging 17 compared to just four for Waterford.
Tipp’s seven-goal salvo in the 2011 Munster final bulks up that figure considerably but Waterford failed to raise a green flag against Tipp in that game, and again when the sides met in the provincial decider a year later.
The Déise did score a goal, however, in the famous 2008 All-Ireland semi-final victory over Tipp, two more in defeat in the 2009 Munster final and another when the sides met a year later at Croke Park in the last four of the All-Ireland series.
Tipp’s ability to score goals could prove decisive in Thurles but in their Munster semi-final victory over Cork, Waterford grabbed three.
2. Do Waterford have a plan B?
Derek McGrath’s much-discussed system brought Waterford promotion from Division 1B and subsequent Allianz Hurling League glory.
It also took them past Cork in the Munster semi-final, with a five-week gap not enough for the Rebels to break down their opponents at the second time of asking.
Waterford sit deep with Tadhg de Búrca anchoring a solid half-back line and providing cover to his inside men.
But do Waterford have the wherewithal to adapt if Tipp figure them out?
It’s a question we might find the answer to on Sunday and it’s probably a question that Derek McGrath would like answered too.
But the De La Salle man is an astute tactician and if his gameplan isn’t working, he’ll have something else up his sleeve to test Tipperary with.
And Waterford have already tasted victory over Tipp this year, in the Allianz League Division 1 semi-final.
3. How will Tipperary break Waterford down?
Tipp have fine variation in their play and they have two ways to beat the sweeper.
If Waterford decide to drop deep and allow Tipp possession from Darren Gleeson’s puckouts, Premier County defenders can bypass the sweeper by going direct over de Búrca’s head to attack the space occupied by Seamus Callanan.
Tipp can also use possession in deep areas to hit Waterford down the channels, which would see de Búrca dragged out to the flanks.
If Waterford decide that they don’t want Tipp having possession close to their own goal to build attacks, they may attack Gleeson’s puckouts but this will create space in behind for Tipp to exploit.
If this happens, Tipp can work the ball through the lines and Pádraic Maher could become a vital player in this regard.
The way both teams set themselves up will make for fascinating viewing but Tipp will have to keep a close eye on what Waterford are doing too….
4. Colin Dunford’s role
….Which leads us nicely onto Colin Dunford’s role in the Waterford team.
The Colligan player has been sensational for the Déise this year and his energy levels allow him to fulfil a dual mandate for Waterford.
First of all, he provides an extra body around the middle third, allowing Waterford to flood this area with bodies and gain primary possession.
Secondly, Dunford’s hard-running can punch holes in the opposition defence and he’s capable of landing long-range scores too.
Tipp must decide whether they’ll let Dunford roam and mark him zonally or deploy a man-marker.
Fit-again Cathal Barrett is tailor-made for Dunford if Waterford, as expected, opt for a two-man inside line.
Tipp could also leave Barrett spare as the recipient for short puckouts and this is one that will have exercised the mind of boss Eamon O’Shea.
5. Who needs victory most?
It’s already been a brilliant season for Waterford, who secured silverware with Allianz League final victory over Cork.
Even if they lose on Sunday, the Déise will still find themselves in an All-Ireland quarter-final but the feeling is that Tipp’s need is greater in the provincial showpiece.
Defeat would see old doubts rising to the surface again and an All-Ireland quarter-final against a battle-hardened qualifier would represent a potential death-trap.
Tipp’s players will be desperate to provide manager O’Shea with silverware in his third and final season at the helm.
They flowed sweetly against Limerick at the Gaelic Grounds but Waterford will work hard to shut down the space in which Tipp’s talented forwards like to operate.
Defeat would not be the end of the world for Waterford but it could be the start of it for Tipp.
6. The Thurles factor
Will hindsight suggest that playing Tipperary in Thurles was a good or bad move?
The end result will tell all but this is a venue that the Déise are more than happy with, having claimed two big victories over Cork in Thurles already this year.
Waterford will feel that the pressure is on Tipp to produce at their home venue and what better motivation for them than to turn over the Premier County in their back yard?
The obvious plus point from Tipp’s point of view is that they know the place inside out and will be anxious to deliver a performance in front of the expectant blue and gold hordes.
When Tipp and Waterford last played in the provincial decider in Thurles six years ago, Lar Corbett bagged a brace of goals and Eoin Kelly and Seamus Callanan raised a green flag each.
But Waterford’s last Munster title was achieved at the ‘Field of Legends’, when they beat Cork in a Saturday replay under lights in 2010.
