Group A
Already qualified: Germany
Still in contention: Turkey 14 points, Belgium 12
State of play: Belgium badly need Germany to win in Turkey tonight. Otherwise, since Turkey host Azerbaijan on Tuesday and also have a better head-to-head record, the Belgians will effectively be out. Belgium themselves have to travel to Dusseldorf on Tuesday though. And, given that the Germans have a 100% record so far, it seems highly unlikely the Turks will not secure second spot.
Match to keep an eye on: Turkey v Germany
Tonight’s fixtures
Azerbaijan v Austria, 5pm
Turkey v Germany, 7.30pm
Belgium v Kazakhstan, 7.45pm
Tuesday’s fixtures
Kazakhstan v Austria
Germany v Belgium
Turkey v Azerbaijan
Group C
Already qualified: Italy
Still in contention: Serbia 14, Estonia 13, Slovenia 11, Northern Ireland 9
State of play: This group is relatively straight-forward so long as Serbia beat Italy at home tonight. If that happens, then Serbia secure top spot. If it doesn’t, then this group gets very interesting.
Should Serbia only draw, for example, then a simultaneous Estonian victory in Northern Ireland would put the Eastern Europeans into second. And that would leave Serbia needing a win in Slovenia on Tuesday to leapfrog Estonia again, who have a better head-to-head record.
Slovenia, who do not play tonight, need both Serbia and Estonia to lose tonight and then defeat Serbia on Tuesday. They have a better head-to-head record against Serbia too.
Northern Ireland, meanwhile, need to win tonight as well as in Italy on Tuesday while hoping Serbia lose to both Italy and Slovenia. Anything less than six points and Northern Ireland are out.
Match to keep an eye on: both fixtures
Tonight’s fixtures
Northern Ireland v Estonia, 7.45pm
Serbia v Italy, 7.45pm
Tuesday’s fixtures
Italy v Northern Ireland
Slovenia v Serbia
Group D
Already qualified: none
Still in contention: France 17, Bosnia 16, Romania 12
State of play: Given that all three top sides have eminently winnable games tonight, Romania – who also have the most difficult match – are likely to be eliminated. In that case, France’s home match against Bosnia and Herzegovina on Tuesday is set to be an effective play-off to decide who goes through automatically and who goes into the play-off themselves.
Tonight’s fixtures
Bosnia-Herzegovina v Luxembourg, 7pm
Romania v Belarus, 7.30pm
France v Albania, 9pm
Tuesday’s fixtures
Albania v Romania
France v Bosnia-Herzegovina
Group E
Already qualified: Holland
Still in contention: Sweden 18, Hungary 18
State of play: Victory away to Finland tonight will secure a play-off place for Sweden since they have a better head-to-head record against Hungary. Anything less in an awkward trip to Helsinki, though, and they’re in real danger. Because, while Hungary are at home to Finland on Tuesday, Sweden must host a Dutch team with a perfect record. It’s eminently possibly the Hungarians will leapfrog them.
Match to keep an eye on: Finland v Sweden
Tonight’s fixtures
Finland v Sweden, 5.15
Holland v Moldova, 7.30
Tuesday’s fixtures
Sweden v Holland
Moldova v San Marino
Hungary v Finland
Group F
Already qualified: none
Still in contention: Croatia 19, Greece 18
State of play: The group will go a long way to being settled tonight as Croatia visit Greece. Victory and Croatia are there. But even a draw would be a fine result for Slaven Bilic’s side since they host Latvia on Tuesday while Greece face a tricky trip to Georgia. Really, the Greeks must get six points.
Match to keep an eye on: Greece v Croatia
Latvia v Malta, 6pm
Greece v Croatia, 7.45pm
Tuesday’s fixtures
Croatia v Latvia
Georgia v Greece
Malta v Israel
Group G
Already qualified: none
Still in contention: England 17, Montenegro 11, Switzerland 8
State of play: England will secure qualification with a draw in Montenegro tonight. And, even if they lose, Montenegro would still need to win in Switzerland on Tuesday. Because, all going according to form, this group is likeliest to boil down to a play-off for second between the Swiss and Montenegrins. That game will be rendered meaningless, however, if Montenegro get at least a point tonight and Switzerland lose in Wales.
Match to keep an eye on: both
Tonight’s fixtures
Wales v Switzerland, 7.45pm
Montenegro v England, 8pm
Tuesday’s fixtures
Bulgaria v Wales
Switzerland v Montenegro
Group H
Already qualified: none
Still in contention: Portugal 13, Denmark 13, Norway 13
State of play: With such winnable games tonight, the real business takes place on Tuesday as Denmark and Portugal face off in Copenhagen for top spot. By that point, Norway will be eliminated from the running for first unless both sides somehow don’t win tonight. And, unless Denmark absolutely destroy Portugal – who Norway drew 1-1 with twice – then Norway are really out of the running for second too.
Tonight’s fixtures
Cyprus v Denmark, 7.30pm
Portugal v Iceland, 8pm
Tuesday’s fixtures
Norway v Cyprus
Denmark v Portugal
Group I
Already qualified: Spain
Still in contention: Czech Republic 10, Scotland 8
State of play: All rests on the team that has already qualified. Scotland will be hoping that Spain are eager enough to continue their 100% record in order to win in Prague tonight while then easing off on Scotland on Tuesday. Even then, though, unless Scotland claim an unlikely three points in Spain then they’ll need a favour off Lithuania as they host the Czech Republic.
Really, it’s that trip to Spain which should spurn Scotland’s chances. Because, although they could well leapfrog the Czechs tonight, Tuesday’s fixtures should reverse that.
Ultimately, a draw at home against the world champions tonight should put the Czechs into second.
Match to keep an eye on: Czech Republic v Spain
Tonight/tomorrow’s fixtures
Czech Republic v Spain, 7.45pm
Liechtenstein v Scotland, tomorrow
Tuesday’s fixtures
Lithuania v Czech Republic
Spain v Scotland
