Gavin Cooney

BEHOLD THE FINNISH…for this is only the start.

Or the end of the start, at least. 

Before attention turns to the World Cup qualifiers, Ireland’s Nations League campaign wraps up this week, and this edition could be said to be our greatest ever, featuring as it did a win away from home for the first time ever. Hell, the 2-1 win in Helsinki was only our third Nations League win anywhere. 

And yet despite our loveless embrace of Uefa’s replacement for friendly internationals, we have eddied about in League B, never threatening promotion but never quite bad enough to be be relegated, either. 

Our survival prospects are looking good again this time around. If Ireland avoid defeat against Finland in Dublin tonight, they’ll finish third and be sent to a promotion/relegation play-off against a League C runner-up next March.

Should that transpire, Ireland will learn their opponents at a draw to be conducted by Uefa on 22 November. For context, the sides currently in second spot in their League C groups are Slovakia, Belarus, Kosovo, and Armenia.

It is in Ireland’s interest to avoid relegation: any Euro 2028 co-hosts looking for a backdoor route into the tournament will likely be separated on their Nations League record, and so with Northern Ireland on course for promotion to League B, Ireland’s dropping down to be the only co-host in League C would be nightmare. 

The good news for Ireland is that Finland are eminently beatable, as they themselves proved only last month. This is an even weaker Finnish team than the one Ireland edged in Helsinki, with a trio of starters sent on U21 duty to compete in a Euros play-off with Norway.

Ireland’s U21s sadly have no such prize to play for, having been nudged out of the play-off spots by Norway. That disappointment has at least had a silver lining for captain Andrew Moran, who has been called up to the senior squad for this window.

Moran has been playing regularly for Stoke City on loan this season, and has been doing so in a deeper midfield role; one half of a double pivot. That’s an intriguing thing for Ireland, who have decent options at No.10 – Finn Azaz, Sammie Szmodics, Kasey McAteer, even perhaps Evan Ferguson – but are painfully light in midfield. With Alan Browne omitted and Will Smallbone injured, Ireland’s only other options are Jayson Molumby, Josh Cullen, and Jason Knight. 

Hallgrimsson was coy on Moran at his pre-match press conference, however, suggesting he is assessing him in the context of future games, rather than this immediate clash. Plus, he has been struggling with a calf problem so he may not even make the squad. There are concerns too about Festy Ebosele and Dara O’Shea, but all three trained with the squad at Abbotstown on Wednesday morning. 

That was the first session of the week in which everyone could take part, such were the demands ahead of this window. Hallgrimsson says he is without 10 players he would have otherwise selected: Seamus Coleman, Shane Duffy, Adam Idah, Andrew Omobamidele, Jamie McGrath, Chiedozie Ogbene, Robbie Brady, Gavin Bazunu, Will Smallbone, and Jack Taylor. 

Hallgrimsson’s hopes to build his side’s confidence through regularly playing with one another may be feasible at club level but is proving increasingly ambitious at international level. So stretched are Ireland that Hallgrimsson has had to recall Matt Doherty, whom it appears he has been doing his best to drop. 

Doherty was left out of the October games and was initially omitted from the squad for this window, too, but was belatedly called when Coleman withdrew with injury. Hallgrimsson has consistently said he left out Doherty to assess other options in advance of next year’s World Cup qualifiers, and said yesterday he didn’t want to pick a squad with both Coleman and Doherty, given he knows what both can do. 

This doesn’t scan, though, given Coleman was injured last month and still Doherty was left out. Circumstances mean that Doherty may not be far away from tonight’s starting team either. Dara O’Shea is the likeliest to start at right-back tonight, though he has playing in pain with some back issues lately. Another option is Festy Ebosele, but he may be needed further forward to replace Ogbene. 

And so Doherty might earn a shot at redemption through the two sweetest words in the English language: de fault. 

Robbie Brady and team-mates celebrate his winning goal against Finland last month. Ryan Byrne / INPHO Ryan Byrne / INPHO / INPHO

Elsewhere, Robbie Brady, the hero in Helsinki, is injured, and while Ryan Manning has linked up with the squad, Callum O’Dowda is expected to start at left-back. Hallgrimsson is trying to balance the need for Nations League results with an assessment of options ahead of next year’s World Cup qualifiers, and he is eager to get a sight of O’Dowda in action. 

Brady is a significant absence. Along with creating the equaliser and scoring the winner last month, he was key to Ireland’s set up. Ireland played a 4-4-2 out of possession, but a Shamrock Rovers-style 3-4-2-1 with the ball, with Brady the key piece: he pushed high on the left-wing in possession, allowing Sammie Szmodics tuck inside and play closer to Finn Azaz and, crucially, Evan Ferguson. 

Caoimhín Kelleher is an obvious pick in goal despite Mark Travers’ impressive turns for Bournemouth, while Liam Scales will surely continue alongside Nathan Collins in defence, despite the fact he suddenly finds his place at Celtic under attack. 

Midfield-wise, Josh Cullen will be partnered by one of the Ja(y)sons, and Evan Ferguson should lead the line given Idah is absent and he has started to build a few more minutes at Brighton. He also happily ended his goal drought by netting against Wolves a couple of weeks ago. 

Szmodics has yet to score for Ireland, and Hallgrimsson has to figure out a means of making him more effective. Does he keep him in the hybrid role in which he drifts in from the left when Ireland have the ball, or should Szmodics instead be played in the more traditional No.10 role, which was played by Azaz in Helsinki?

With Ogbene unlikely to play an international game again until next September, Ireland desperately need to retain pace in attack: Ebosele is going to emerge as an important player over the next few windows, beginning tonight. 

Among Hallgrimsson’s main messages to his players this week has been to play without first needing to fall behind. Speaking at his squad announcement, the Irish manager looked at the quality of the second half performances in Helsinki and Athens and delivered a pithy diagnosis

“Once we had nothing to lose”, he said, “we were really good.” 

John O’Shea bristled slightly on Monday when this writer put it to him that this failure to own the tempo of a game at 0-0 was a technical issue, rather than a mental one. 

“It’s definitely not a technical issue”, said O’Shea. “I think that gives you your answer.”

Ireland will seek to be aggressive from the very off tonight, and truly it would be a disappointment if they are not. The main difference between their first and second half performance against Finland last night was simply the energy with which they pressed their opponents and jumped into tackles after the break. 

Nathan Collins said yesterday that the win in Finland re-injected some belief among the squad, and tonight they will face a weaker Finland side than the one they beat last month.

This is also potentially the last time we’ll see Ireland at home to a beatable side prior to the World Cup qualifiers, so to maintain the progress preached by both players and managers and retain the long-lost good vibes in the Abbotstown atmosphere, a win tonight is a necessity. 

Republic of Ireland (Possible XI): Kelleher; O’Shea, Collins, Scales, O’Dowda; Cullen, Knight; Ebosele, Szmodics; Azaz, Ferguson 

On TV: RTÉ Two; KO: 7.45pm