IT WAS STILL Saturday night when the conversation began, Sunday morning when it ended. By this stage, the dust had settled on Ireland’s victory over the Wallabies, the fizz disappearing from our pints.
It’s the hangover we all fear – and we’re not referring to the aftereffects of a few beers. No, last night felt like 2002, 2006, 2014 and 2018 all over again. “We’ve been here so often,” noted Gavan Casey, host of The42’s Rugby Weekly podcast.
He’s not wrong. In previous World Cup cycles, we repeatedly peaked a year out, beating the reigning world champions in 2002, 2004-07, 2009, 2016 and 2018 before flopping in the big show. Why should things be different now? South Africa and now Australia may have fallen in the last few weeks but if history has taught us anything, it is the need to be cautious.
Murray Kinsella, The42’s rugby correspondent: If someone tells you they see things going differently over the next 11 months, it can’t be with confidence based on what has happened in the past. The fact is that Ireland have been in similarly good positions before, regarded as game-leaders a year out from the World Cup, and yet time after time we have seen how things can radically change in a short period of time.
So, I honestly don’t know how it is going to go for Ireland in the next 12 months but one thing that has been evident, from speaking to Ireland’s players over the course of this month, is that even though Andy Farrell has been there since 2020, this set-up still feels fresh. In that sense it does feel slightly different to four years ago.
Gavan Casey: I’m sure there is a degree of PTSD among Irish rugby fans which is totally natural given what has happened at previous World Cups. But to me this Ireland squad is different to the 2018 version. That win they had over the All Blacks (in November 2018) felt like the apex of that team’s journey. It was difficult to imagine them ever putting in a better performance. But this month’s win over the Springboks left a lot of scope for improvement.
Johnny Sexton pointed out after the game that whether the match was won or lost, they are very cognizant of the need to improve over the next 12 months whereas in 2018, the question was ‘where else can Ireland get better?’ With this team, you see a lot of scope to evolve.
Garry Doyle, sports reporter The42: Such as?
Ciaran Kennedy, rugby reporter, The42: The concern pre-November was that the Irish system was unsuited to beating a particular type of team – a heavier side like South Africa. But the 19-16 victory over the Springboks a couple of weeks ago answered that question, and so to an extent, did last night’s win over Australia because Ireland had to scrap for those victories.
They didn’t just win by executing this fast, expansive, exhilarating gameplan but by matching big, physical opponents in areas that previously would have been considered an Irish weakness. Everything about Ireland’s game has improved; defence, attack, the scrum, the lineout. If Ireland match physicality with accuracy in 2023, they will be hard stopped.
Doyle: New Zealand certainly discovered that in the summer and looking at it from the distance of a year, it would seem Ireland’s best chance of a successful World Cup rests with a quarter-final draw against the All Blacks rather than France, a sentence no one would have considered uttering even two years ago.
Casey: Man for man this does appear to be the weakest New Zealand team of my lifetime. They have so much pressure on them already. Look at how they folded against England in the last 10 minutes yesterday. Choose the French at their home World Cup or an All Blacks side you have beaten three times in the last year, it’s a no-brainer.
Doyle: One thing about New Zealand; they are unbeaten in seven games now. Despite a first ever loss at home to Argentina, they still won the Rugby Championship. Plus they have this chap called Joe Schmidt on their coaching ticket. Aaron Smith, New Zealand’s scrum half, described the former Ireland coach as ‘all-seeing’.
“He’s a stickler for little things,” Smith said this week. “That has helped our attack. It’s the way he sees the breakdown, how he notes small opportunities, how he drives them home and how he doesn’t let any of them slip, whether it’s walk-through, clarity or training — he’s even harder on that than he is in the game.”
Kennedy: There is no doubt that Schmidt’s presence makes the All Blacks a tougher proposition than they were on the summer tour. As much as Andy Farrell has brought the team on, Schmidt knows everything about Sexton, Ryan, Furlong, Porter, the cornerstones of Ireland’s side. Plus World Cup All Blacks are a different beast to summer tour All Blacks.
Doyle: Talking of the All Blacks, Ireland’s win against them last November saw them come from behind at half-time to blow them away in the second half. Think then to Ireland’s final quarter against England at Twickenham, 15-15 turned into a 32-15 win. Even the two times they have lost in their last 19 matches, they fought back after the break. Is this just a statistical quirk or should we see a deeper message in there?
Kinsella: For me it further exemplifies the focus Farrell has had around the mental side of the game.
Doyle: Caelan Doris made that precise point about Farrell on the New Zealand tour.
Kinsella: Farrell is unbelievable with his messaging. He often seems to surprise the players with his tone or content. After a good performance, he has been known to be downbeat. After a negative result – like the first test reversal in the summer tour – he has been reassuring. His words gave everyone a bounce. It is one thing we knew he’d get right when he got the job.
Kennedy: I like the way Farrell has approached the whole Ireland-being-No1-in-the-world-thing. The mindset around that situation has deeply impressed me, as has his ability to make newcomers in the squad feel welcome.
Doyle: Seeing as we are on the newcomer angle, give us your World Cup bolter.
Kinsella: To an extent, Jimmy O’Brien has probably gone past that category; he has played 13, left wing, and full back, this month and if I’m honest, I did not see him making such swift progress. Now he looks an invaluable member of the squad.
Casey: He certainly has the stomach for Test-match rugby.
Kennedy: O’Brien’s emergence is badly needed because Hugo Keenan is one player who just has not had any competition. Jimmy is now the next man in there. He looks so comfortable in the Andy Farrell system. Book his name on the plane.
Another name to think about is Joe McCarthy. He has the physicality, the size, but he also has a bit of football about him, intelligence, good hands. He is not the one-dimensional second row you would have seen years ago. I know his debut came only last night but he is a real Andy Farrell type player and is best placed to be the bolter.
Casey: I wouldn’t rule out Munster’s Antoine Frisch, either. That France are interested in tying him down tells its own story. Notwithstanding Stuart McCloskey’s excellent November and the likelihood that he’ll continue to tear it up for Ulster over the next year, I think a line-breaking trade 13 in Frisch might be the most complementary addition to a squad already containing Aki and Henshaw (provided both are fit and available). But I expect James Hume and Jamie Osborne will have plenty to say about that.
Kinsella: I had Marty Moore in the bolter category, but the Irish coaches seem to have gone off him after the Ireland A game (when an All Blacks XV destroyed Ireland on the eve of the Springboks Test). I don’t think it is impossible to see him shooting into the mix.
Doyle: Ireland were shocking in that A game and the Fiji performance was probably the dullest daytime TV I’ve seen since I was isolating during Covid and watching Emmerdale.
Good and all as Ireland have been in 2022, it is hard not to draw comparisons with Wales and 2019, in that they’ve a brilliant team but not necessarily a brilliant squad. To win a World Cup, Ireland are going to have to produce three huge wins in successive weeks while dealing with injuries. Have they the depth to cope?
Kennedy: Winning World Cups is all about backing up performances quickly against similarly talented teams. You don’t get a dip in standard when you get to knock-out rugby which allows you to rest players, the way you can in the November Series (with Fiji) or the Six Nations (when you play Italy). That is an issue. We can’t pretend it is not.
Kinsella: Think back to 2015 when a third of the Ireland team, its spine, was decimated before the quarter-final: Paul O’Connell, Johnny Sexton, Sean O’Brien, Peter O’Mahony, Jared Payne. Ireland couldn’t cope with those losses. Certain players they can’t go without again.
Casey: I’ll name those fellahs. Sexton, Tadhg Furlong, Andrew Porter, Hugo Keenan and – given the way Ireland’s attack is based on playing at a certain tempo – Jamison Gibson Park.
Kennedy: There is a noticeable drop off when you go beyond those players. Everybody knows what the first choice XV is and, at this stage, what the 23 man squad is. Go beyond that and things become uncertain.
Kinsella: Obviously the Springboks pool game is a worry in that respect because we know it is going to be so attritional.
Doyle: Bernard Jackman suggested on last week’s Rugby Weekly pod that one idea might be to rest certain key players against the Boks.
Casey: I don’t think they should do it and am pretty certain they won’t even contemplate it because it interferes with the culture they have been trying to build over the last three years. Plus, I don’t think that policy would instill a great deal of confidence into the replacement players.
Kinsella: They have a two-week gap between the Springboks pool game and the Scotland match so the way that schedule falls is ideal.
Look, if they get some luck then absolutely you can see Ireland progress through the tournament. Think of the Springboks in the 2019 World Cup – for sure having the bomb squad helped them share their workload – but they got luck with injuries. Australia did too in 2015, reaching a final with very few injuries. Every team needs luck. If Ireland get it, and just have to cope with two or three drop-offs, they have a chance.
Doyle: Whatever about Johnny Sexton staying injury free, one thing he can’t remain is young! He will be 38 at the next World Cup and you can’t help thinking back to how well Devin Toner, Rob Kearney and Rory Best played in November 2018 against the All Blacks and how old they looked in 2019. The sporting history books are filled with stories of great athletes going past their best without warning.
Kinsella: That’s one way of looking at it; another is that he is the best. All of the other countries in the world would love to have him in there; England would love it; France, even though they have such a talented young ten in (Romain) Ntamack, could only imagine what Sexton could do with that sort of quality around him.
Yes, he’s the best outhalf we have and there is a big drop off (to the next best option) but that’s the same with the best players in every team. If (Antoine) Dupont gets injured, France will be massively impacted; if Owen Farrell goes down, England will be massively damaged. We have become obsessed with the issue in Ireland, wondering how we will cope with a Sexton injury in the World Cup.
Everyone holds out hope Joey Carbery can become another Sexton but that’s so unfair on him (Carbery) because Johnny is such a once-off. There have only been a few talents like him in Irish rugby history.
The positive side to this is he is so motivated. He was talking about the Lions this week.
Johnny Sexton: The Lions selection still drives me to this day. Any time I feel I’m getting a bit of ahead of myself I just think back to not being picked for that.
Doyle: A bigger risk would have been to write Sexton off three years ago.
Kinsella: He still has that fire within him.
Kennedy: If he was 27 and playing the way he is playing right now, nobody would be giving out about the lack of competition he is getting. The man is playing some of the best rugby of his career. It is not as though we are playing a 37-year-old out-half because he is the only option. He’s leading the team because he’s the best in the world in his position not just the best in Ireland. There are a lot of teams who would love to have a problem like Johnny Sexton. In any case, I like the look of Jack Crowley. He has something about him.
Doyle: Right lads, let’s be having ya. Name your squad for France next year.
Casey: I’m going for Hugo Keenan, Jimmy O’Brien, Mack Hansen, James Lowe in my back three; Antoine Frisch, Robbie Henshaw, Bundee Aki and Garry Ringrose in midfield; Sexton, Joey Carbery and Jack Crowley as my 10s; Gibson-Park, Conor Murray and Craig Casey as my nines.
Then, in the pack, I reckon it’ll be Porter, Cian Healy and Jeremy Loughman at loosehead; Dan Sheehan, Ronan Kelleher and Rob Herring at hooker; Tadhg Furlong, Finlay Bealham and Tom O’Toole as our tightheads; Iain Henderson, James Ryan, Tadhg Beirne and Joe McCarthy as the locks; Peter O’Mahony, Josh van der Flier, Caelan Doris, Gavin Coombes, Jack Conan and Nick Timoney to cover the backrow.
Kennedy: I’m with Gav, except for me, it’s McCloskey rather than Frisch and Ryan Baird rather than Nick Timoney. I do like the look of Frisch and think he’s a Farrell-type player, but just haven’t seen enough of him in a Munster jersey yet. A big season could push him into the mix.
Kinsella: Okay for me, I’m going with this lot.
Porter, Healy, Loughman – loosehead; Sheehan, Kelleher, Herring – hooker; Furlong, Bealham, Moore – tighthead; Beirne, Ryan, Henderson, McCarthy – lock; Doris, Van der Flier, O’Mahony, Conan, Baird – backrow; Gibson-Park, Murray, Casey – scrum-half; Sexton, Carbery, Crowley – out-half; Henshaw, Aki, Ringrose, McCloskey – centre; Lowe, Hansen, Keenan, Earls, O’Brien – back three.
Doyle: Okay prediction time, what’s going to happen next year?
Kennedy: My prediction is that South Africa’s World Cup campaign will be overshadowed by Rassie Erasmus starting his own breakaway social media platform. Elon Musk will then begin talks to buy Rassie out. Beyond that, I see Ireland reaching the semi-finals.
Kinsella: I’ll go losing finalists for the craic.
Doyle: Last word to you Gav.
Casey: Beaten in the quarter-finals. Bollocks anyway.