EIGHT TEAMS HAVE already secured their Champions Cup round of 16 berths with one more game to go, but there is a huge amount to play for in this weekend’s final pool-stage fixtures.
There are still eight places up for grabs in the round of 16, but the clubs who have already secured their places are also vying for the best possible seeding ahead of the knock-out stages.
The free-wheeling Bordeaux made it three bonus-point wins from three with their hammering of Saracens yesterday to qualify out of Pool 1, while Lyon have also secured their knock-out place after a win over Connacht.
In Pool 2, Toulouse and Bath both made it three bonus-point wins from three as they qualified by beating Ulster and Racing, respectively, while Harlequins are also heading through following a big win away to Cardiff.
Northampton and Exeter are both three wins from three in Pool 3 having beaten Bayonne and Glasgow, respectively, so they’re definitely through.
But Leinster, who won against Stade Français on Saturday, are the only team to have qualified from Pool 4 at this stage.
It’s comforting to have secured a knock-out place with one game to go, but there is an enticing carrot there for anyone who can make it a full house of four wins from four this coming weekend. And perhaps even four bonus-point wins from four in the case of Bordeaux and Toulouse or Bath.
The top two overall seeds at the end of the pool stage would enjoy home advantage in the round of 16, quarter-finals, and semi-finals if they progress, so there is a major incentive to go all out again this weekend.
Leinster, currently on 14 match points, will be among the sides looking to complete a clean sweep as they visit Leicester on Saturday. The Tigers are aiming to make sure they advance out of the pool, so it should be a fine game.
The three teams currently on a full 15 match points – Toulouse, Bordeaux, and Bath – have an interesting weekend in store.
The impressive Bordeaux are away to the Bulls in South Africa. With Jake White’s men still looking to secure their progress from Pool 1, it should be a demanding test for the Top 14 side at altitude in Pretoria.
Toulouse host Bath on Sunday afternoon, meaning one should knock the other off or they’ll draw. The French side will be favourites to win at home.
With that in mind, opportunity knocks for Leinster, Northampton, and potentially Exeter in terms of chasing top seeding ahead of the knock-out stages.
Northampton are away to Munster in Thomond Park on Saturday. The English side have already done enough to get a home round of 16 game but it will be interesting to see if they go full strength again this weekend to chase a higher seeding.
Exeter are away to Bayonne on Sunday. The French side could still qualify out of the pool, but have yet to win after three rounds, so Rob Baxter’s men will be gunning for a 100% record that few would have predicted before the campaign kicked off.
Leinster
The picture for Leinster is clear – they’re already through and are almost certain to top Pool 4 but they will be aiming for a big win in Leicester to give them every chance of being one of the two top overall seeds.
The dream scenario for Leinster is that they get a big bonus-point win over Leicester, Bordeaux lose away to the Bulls, Bath and Toulouse draw, or Bath win without a bonus point, and Northampton lose away to Munster.
It seems unlikely, of course, but that would mean Leinster advancing as the overall top seeds after the pool stages.
Just one match point in defeat to Leicester would be enough to ensure Leinster top Pool 4 and have home advantage in the round of 16 at least.
Munster
Despite their rousing win in Toulon, Munster have yet to qualify out of Pool 3.
They could go through without getting any match points against Northampton on Saturday, depending on other results, but Munster will be bouncing at home in Limerick after that success at Stade Félix Mayol.
Even a single match point in defeat would guarantee Munster’s progress into the knock-out stages, yet they will only be thinking of a win.
Graham Rowntree’s men could even still grab an unlikely home round of 16 fixture if they win against Northampton with a bonus point and Exeter get nothing away to Bayonne.
There is an unlikely chance that Rowntree’s men miss out on the knock-out stages altogether, but that could only happen if Munster lose heavily to Northampton without getting any match points and Bayonne get a big bonus-point win over Exeter.
Ulster
Over in Pool 2, Ulster’s return of zero match points from their home defeat to Toulouse on Saturday leaves them under pressure.
Dan McFarland’s men travel to Harlequins this weekend and a win of any kind would guarantee them a place in the round of 16. In that sense, the task is clear.
Though the English side are already through, a bonus-point win could see Quins grab a home round of 16 clash so they have lots to play for.
Racing have lost three games from three in Pool 2 so far but are just two match points behind Ulster. Racing are at home to Cardiff on Saturday so will be going for a bonus-point win just after Ulster have played Harlequins. McFarland will hope his side are safely through before Racing kick off.
If they slip up and Racing edge them out for the last qualifying spot out of the pool, Ulster would drop into the Challenge Cup round of 16.
Connacht
As for Connacht, three defeats from three games and just a single match point so far leave them highly unlikely to go through.
Peter Wilkins’ side would need to hammer Bristol in Galway on Friday night, then hope Lyon could beat Saracens well in England on Saturday evening to get into the round of 16. They’d also need to make sure Bristol don’t get a losing bonus point and hope Saracens didn’t either. Otherwise, points difference would be decisive.
With Bristol and Saracens both still in contention to go through, it would be miracle stuff for Connacht.
A bonus-point win over Bristol would secure Connacht a fifth-place finish in the pool, which would mean they drop into the Challenge Cup round of 16.
