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World Cup trophy (file pic). Alamy Stock Photo
ANALYSIS

Ranking the 10 teams most likely to win the World Cup

USA and others who could potentially triumph.

10. Canada

One of two of Ireland’s group rivals to appear on this list, which shows the scope of the challenge facing Vera Pauw’s side. Canada’s players are very experienced at international level — 13 of the 23 players selected have passed the 50-cap barrier. The most notable name in their squad is 40-year-old Christine Sinclair, who has a record 190 goals for her country in addition to astonishingly racking up more than 300 appearances. They are the reigning Olympic champions, though they will be considered rank outsiders in this tournament and have not fared especially well at past World Cups. Of their seven appearances, four have resulted in group-stage exits. Canada’s best performance was a fourth-place finish in 2003, while they were dumped out of the 2019 World Cup at the round-of-16 stage by Sweden. One encouraging note for Ireland is that the Canadians have not been in great form recently, losing four of their last five matches, albeit against high-calibre opposition like USA and France.

9. Brazil

Another highly experienced squad includes the legendary Marta, the 37-year-old Orlando Pride attacker who has 115 goals from 175 caps — four others in the squad have also represented the country on more than 100 occasions. They have been nowhere near as dominant as their male counterparts in the World Cup, though they generally perform relatively well at the tournament. They have made it out of the group stages in their last six successive World Cups, with the highlights encompassing a runners-up spot in 2007 and a third-place finish in 1999. Coached by the Swede Pia Sundhage, they also have a number of exciting young players coming through that they hope can make help the older stars to have a big impact on the tournament.

8. Netherlands

Another squad filled with stars including 216-cap skipper Sherida Spitse of Ajax, Lyon’s Daniëlle van de Donk, Man City’s Jill Roord and PSG’s Lieke Martens, though they will be without Arsenal star Vivianne Miedema owing to a cruciate ligament injury. The Dutch performed exceptionally well at the last World Cup, making it all the way to the final, in addition to winning the Euros that they also hosted in 2017. A quarter-final exit at the same tournament four years later against France suggests they may be on the wane, but they certainly have enough top-class players to be considered one of the dark horses to triumph in the coming weeks.

7. Sweden

Vera Pauw’s Ireland may have held the Swedes in Gothenburg amid a 1-1 draw during the qualifiers, but Peter Gerhardsson’s side still comfortably topped the group by five points. Sweden were ranked second by Fifa in the world at the time of that clash and have since dropped only one place to third, which suggests they should be considered among the favourites. Their results of late, however, have been mixed. They did secure an impressive 3-0 win over France back in October, but it was one of just three victories in their last nine matches — they were dumped out of the Euros amid a 4-0 semi-final loss to England, while Australia beat them by the same scoreline in November. That said, they invariably perform well at the World Cup, achieving three third-place finishes (including the last tournament in 2019) since the first official competition in 1991, as well as a runners-up spot in 2003. Moreover, with players of the calibre of Arsenal’s Stina Blackstenius and Bayern Munich’s Magdalena Eriksson, there aren’t too many sides that will fancy their chances against them.

6. France

Ireland found out first-hand just how much talent exists within the French team as they were well beaten 3-0 in a World Cup warm-up friendly earlier this month. Nonetheless, it’s been a fairly turbulent past year for the French side. Corinne Diacre, a legend as a player who won over 100 caps for the country as a player, saw her controversy-ridden six-year spell in charge come to an end in March after falling out with several key players. Hervé Renard, an experienced coach in the men’s game who most recently managed Saudi Arabia to a shock World Cup win over eventual champions Argentina, has taken over. Whether he can mould France into a World Cup-winning team in a relatively short space of time remains to be seen, though based on what transpired in Tallaght, the early signs are promising. And they are definitely strong contenders. Even with the Diacre issues in the background, they still finished third at Euro 2022, while world-class players such as PSG’s Wendie Renard, and Lyon’s Eugénie Le Sommer (their all-time leading scorer) are good enough to grace most sides.

5. Australia

The lowest-ranked team on this list, albeit 10th in the world is still a pretty impressive achievement. Australia go into this tournament with home advantage, though they have also been drawn in the so-called ‘group of death’ alongside Canada, Nigeria and of course, Ireland. Tony Gustavsson’s side have looked very impressive in recent months, winning nine of their previous 10 matches, including notable defeats of England, Spain and France, though the somewhat surprising sole defeat in that run came against Ireland’s playoff rivals Scotland. Stopping several world-class players such as Chelsea’s Sam Kerr is a difficult if not impossible task, as Louise Quinn pointed out recently. “It’s rare but I felt like I got one up on her with the Irish team [during the September 2021 3-2 win over Australia] in Tallaght and that is something that I will carry forward with me.” 

4. Germany

The current second-best team in the world according to Fifa, Germany have an abundance of top-class players to choose from including Wolfsburg’s Alexandra Popp, Lyon’s Sara Däbritz and Bayern Munich’s Lea Schüller, her country’s Footballer of the Year for 2022. They were unlucky not to win the last Euros, losing out to hosts England after extra time in a competition they’ve incredibly won more than they’ve lost (succeeding in eight out of 15 attempts). They have been not quite so successful at the World Cup, but still have an impressive track record, including back-to-back victories in 2003 and 2007, though they experienced a disappointing quarter-finals exit at the hands of Sweden four years ago.

3. Spain

Another team who should go very far. Since their unfortunate extra-time exit to England in the quarter-finals of the Euros, they have won 12 and lost just one of their subsequent 14 (ominously, the defeat came against Ireland’s upcoming opponents Australia). What makes this run all the more incredible is that coach Jorge Vilda is a hugely controversial figure. The Spanish FA chose to stand by their man after 15 players emailed them to say they would resign from the national team if he continued to take charge. Yet despite this upheaval, they still boast a strong squad that includes back-to-back Ballon D’Or winner Alexia Putellas. They are also boosted by the fact that Spain’s domestic game is in excellent health — Barcelona have reached four of the last five Champions League finals, winning twice, and breaking multiple attendance records in the process.

2. England

Sarina Wiegman has made a substantial impact since succeeding Phil Neville in September 2021. The Dutch coach oversaw a historic Euros victory just under a year ago and will be hoping to build on the momentum of that triumph in the coming months. The Three Lions have failed to win their last four matches, failing to score in three of those, after Australia ended their 30-game unbeaten run in April. Yet alarm bells won’t exactly be ringing given that all these matches were relatively meaningless. There are some high-profile absentees with injuries curtailing Leah Williamson and Beth Mead’s hopes of making the squad, though they still boast considerable depth with Chelsea’s Millie Bright and Champions League-winning Barcelona duo Keira Walsh and Lucy Bronze (two of three non-English-based players in the squad along with Bayern Munich’s Georgia Stanway) likely to be key. Interestingly, as expected, if they finish top of a group also featuring Denmark, Haiti and China, they will meet the runners-up of Ireland’s group in the round of 16.

1. USA

The world’s number-one-ranked team may have several ageing stars including the 38-year-old soon-to-retired Megan Rapinoe, but it would be very foolish to write off the reigning champions and winners of four out of eight World Cups. Their sheer dominance of the competition is emphasised by the fact that their worst-ever finish is third place, which they achieved after failing to reach the final on three occasions. In 2019, they looked a class apart for much of the tournament, winning all seven of their matches and conceding just three times in addition to scoring 26 goals. Vlatko Andonovski has succeeded two-time World Cup winner Jill Ellis as coach since then and the pressure will be on to emulate his predecessor. For sheer name recognition alone to even casual women’s football fans, the US are unparalleled — in addition to Rapinoe, the likes of Crystal Dunn, Julie Ertz, Rose Lavelle, and Alex Morgan are among the household stars and veterans of the international game. One of the few relatively inexperienced players is exciting 21-year-old attacker Trinity Rodman — daughter of basketball icon Dennis and a likely star of the future. While Rodman is a rare exception, the US are largely a squad of individuals who are well aware of what it takes to prevail at this level, which is why they top this list.

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