ALL THE THREADS just keep running back to 23 February.
By the end of that day, we’ll have a body of evidence to tell us where everyone stands in northern hemisphere rugby. Not to mention a few clues about how successfully the respective post-World Cup campaigns have been knocked into shape.
That is the day Ireland face England in Twickenham as the marquee fixture in the third round of Six Nations matches.
So much of Ireland’s World Cup travails seemed to emanate out of defeats at home and away, winter and summer, against the side on their way to a World Cup final.
Eddie Jones’ men set the standard to be followed in their semi-final destruction of New Zealand and Andy Farrell will be more than a little keen on drawing a statement performance from his team against his home nation.
If everything was to go perfectly according to plan, then it could mean a moment of Triple Crowning glory in Farrell’s early days as a head coach. For he opens the new decade and era against Scotland – who ought to be carrying a weighty chip on their shoulder over the World Cup – before reigning Grand Slam champions Wales come to Dublin with an all-new coaching setup.
A clash with France on the final day will be worth attention, sure. But how much importance it carries will be determined by Ireland’s opening three-week run.
For the new head coach, the first decision he must make is how broad this new broom must be. There will be a new captain and he has already signalled an intention to move beyond the Rob Kearney era in the back-field. Even the most trusty of Joe Schmidt’s lieutenants must be feeling a little less assured of their standing in the depth chart.
The form in the remaining Champions Cup pool rounds ahead will help him to rubber-stamp a few of these elements, but John Cooney – omitted from the World Cup squad – must be underlined at the top of the list for fresh faces to brighten the mood around the green jersey.
At the coalface, Ronan Kelleher is the form hooker and his untimely wrist injury may actually serve him well as it keeps him out of the firing line until just before international honours beckon. His provincial positional rival, Sean Cronin, was among the big-name omissions from the ‘mid-season stocktake’, but must feel there is scope for a belated run of starts in the post- Schmidt landscape.
All onlookers will have a lengthy list of candidates primed for a breakthrough, but with Jack Conan out, Leinster’s Caelan Doris must be close to making another step up the ladder.
Farrell will be wary of wiping the slate too clean. Jonathan Sexton will likely remain key to Ireland’s attack as soon as he recovers from the knee injury sustained in Northampton. The midfield options are hard to look beyond and, Jordan Larmour aside, there is scope for valuable continuity in the outside backs.
The big change in Ireland might just be mindset this year and with Scotland first up and Pivac representing a more expansive approach in Wales there is scope here for Ireland to put their intentions on display early and for players to challenge the quite odd finding from the post-Japan report that there is a skills deficiency in these parts.
Before the pivotal meeting in Twickenham, England’s year will be skewed by how they fare away to France. It should be a good time to face Les Bleus with players coming not-so-fresh in from Top14 duty and with less time to adapt to Shaun Edwards’ defence. Murrayfield will always be a big factor in the round two Calcutta Cup, but it’s a long stretch for the neck to predict anything but an English win. If England can mount further pain on Ireland in round three then they will effectively play their Grand Slam decider against Wales in round four.
Even if they lose somewhere along the way – perhaps Paris or Edinburgh – as long as nobody else manages to put a Grand Slam run together Jones’ side have more than enough power and focus to run up a score against Italy on the final day to tilt the balance.
Six Nations 2020 final standings predictions
England
Ireland
France
Wales
Scotland
Italy
