Seattle Seahawks (10-6) @ Minnesota Vikings (11-5)
Sunday, 6.05pm
How the Vikings can win — Develop their run game early to open up the pass
Only three players got within 300 yards of Adrian Peterson’s league-leading 1,485 rushing yards so it almost goes without saying that the 30-year-old will have to play a massive role if the Vikings are to stop the Seahawks in their bid to reach a third Super Bowl in succession.
However, against the same opposition in December, Peterson had his worst game of the season, picking up just 18 yards on eight carries (2.25 yards per carry) as Minnesota struggled to get anything going on the ground which, in turn, had a massive impact on the passing game with Teddy Bridgewater’s 118 yards his second lowest total of the year.
By establishing the run, the Vikings would force Seattle to respect that part of the game which could free up the likes of Stefon Diggs and Kyle Rudolph to expose a Seattle secondary — the notable exception of Richard Sherman aside — that has failed to reach the heights of the past two seasons.
How the Seahawks can win — Trust the Wilson/Baldwin partnership
Was there a better quarterback over the second half of the season than Russell Wilson? Since losing to the Cardinals in week 10 he has completed 154 passes for 1,906 yards with 24 touchdowns and just one interception — which came in the week 10 loss to St. Louis — in that time.
A huge part of Wilson’s resurgence has been his partnership with Doug Baldwin who has caught 40 of 50 passes (80%) for 595 yards and 11 touchdowns. They’ll look to continue their double act against a Vikings defence ranked 12th against the pass.
Baldwin and Wilson will not have a safety blanket in the shape of Marshawn Lynch returning to the backfield but, with Beastmode having missed nine games through injury, rust was clearly going to be a factor so Seattle would have had to get most of the job done without him anyway.
Who will win?
Playoff football means cold weather football and today’s game could well be one of the coldest on record with temperatures forecast to reach a high of -17°C. That’s cold, though it’s nothing on the -25°C the Packers and Cowboys played in during the 1967 ‘Ice Bowl’.
However, while conditions will still have an impact on the game, it’s not like Seattle are a dome team with no experience of cold weather. The Seahawks also have in their favour that big win just a few weeks ago in this same venue.
That’s not to say the Vikings can’t win — the Rams, twice this year, have shown there is a template for beating Seattle — but the odds are very much against them with their visitors (-4.5) the biggest favourites of the weekend.
Seahawks by 5+
Green Bay Packers (10-6) @ Washington (9-7)
Sunday, 9.40pm
How Washington can win — Trust Kirk Cousins to continue his hot starts
I get things wrong. I’d like to meet the person that doesn’t. But there are few things I’ve been more wrong about than when I called Washington “the worst team in football” before the start of the season. Mea culpa and further proof — if it were needed — there’s a reason why football is played on the field and not on paper.
Key to their success has been the performance of quarterback Kirk Cousins. Of quarterbacks with more than 100 attempts, Cousins’ 69.8% completion percentage leads the league while he’s also in the top 10 in yards per attempt (7.67), total yards (4,166) and passer rating (101.6)
Over the past four games, Cousins has started on fire, completing 34 of 39 passes for six touchdowns and zero interceptions in the opening quarter. In that time, the defence has also stood firm with Washington outscoring teams 48-7 during the first 15 minutes of each of those four games.
How the Packers can win — Hope their receivers finally come good
Twenty-seven different receivers had more yards this season than James Jones’ 890. He was the Green Bay Packers’ top wide receiver but the fact that he only had 50 catches on the year tells you all is not well in the state of Wisconsin… and that’s before you consider the subject matter of Making a Murderer.
Back in December, I took an in-depth look at some of the reasons why the Green Bay offence was struggling and even though head coach Mike McCarthy taking over play-calling duties gave the team a slight bump, the Packers have only managed 21 total points in their past two games.
Green Bay are a completely different team with a true number one wide receiver and neither Jones, Randall Cobb or Davante Adams offers them that. However, an accurate route-running, separation-creating performance by any of them, could be enough to give Aaron Rodgers what he needs to succeed. He may be one of the best we’ve ever seen, but even number 12 can’t do it all on his own.
Who will win?
On Friday, Green Bay were one-point favourites which would have meant, for the first time I can remember, all four home teams would have been underdogs in the Wild Card round. However, there has been a significant shift in betting in the past 48 hours and Washington are now, rightly, one-point favourites.
This is one of those games where the team with the better players (Green Bay) comes up against the team in better form (Washington) and, in theory, the latter should win. Indeed, nobody who has watched the Packers over the final two thirds of the season — the first game against Minnesota aside — could pick Green Bay in this game.
While it has to be noted that Washington has yet to beat a team with a winning record in 2015 — which speaks to how terrible the NFC East is — you can’t really pick against them in this one.
Washington by 3+
Updated at 11.46am
