No, the Six Nations is NOT over yet.
Ireland still have to confront former whipping-boys Italy in front of a packed Stadio Olympico in Rome.
To help make sense of it all, we pulled a virtual table out onto an imagined piazza (G-Chat) produced an espresso and a pack of Jammie Dodgers and got chatting with Ireland’s BallHandlingHooker blog and Dario Mazzocchi (he’s Italian) of RightRugby.
TheScore.ie: So, BHH. We better start with that Sexton blow. We’re hearing 4 to 6 weeks out for him. Thoughts?
BallHandlingHooker: It is a blow.
There’s no doubt that right now he is miles ahead of Jackson, but I’m glad that Paddy gets another chance, this will stand to him in the long term.
For Jonny, it’s more worrying from a Leinster and Lions point of view.
TS: Indeed, he’ll be cutting it tight now.
BHH: He isn’t one who historically can turn on his form the way a Brian O’Driscoll does. Sexton usually takes his time getting back to good form, and he doesn’t have much.
TS: Dario, does Sexton’s absence make Ireland even less frightening?
DM: Oh yes! He can fix the mess in every moment. I still remember his drop in Treviso with Leinster jersey this season.
But Paddy Jackson has talent, too. He played a good match against Scotland, moving the ball and giving pace. Maybe he’s not the best kicker, but he has a deep “point of view” of the match he’s playing.
TS: BHH, you’d agree with that view of Jackson? Are you heartened to keep so many units together despite the injury list.
BHH: I would, he surprised me a bit with how good he was going forward against Scotland, but he reverted to a much more limited performance against France, not really giving too much ball to his backs outside him.
It is surprising to keep so many units together like that, but I think we should be developing combinations anyway. It is helpful that some of the new combinations are able to continue as they were. I think it would have been much harder for Jackson and Marshall if they were playing with different partners each week.
TS: Not sure of the forecast, but Rome on a dry day will be a better showcase for his skill-set, surely.
DM: Exactly. I’m giving a look at the weather forecast: a sunny Saturday in Rome.
BHH: Hopefully a bit more running rugby than this competition has been used to this year.
DM: I think possession will be the key of the match. With the Scots, Ireland insisted on it and lost the match…
BHH: I wouldn’t be surprised if Kidney persists with a similar game plan though.
DM: …I hope they’re going to do the same mistake against Azzurri.
For this reason, Italy have to fight hard in the breakdown area to limit Irish speed and pace.
Ireland have powerful players. A tough back row and an extremely good fullback who can counter attack from kicking game. We know Kearney’s qualities very well.
Our centres and loose forwards will have a lot of work to do in defence.
BHH: I think those will be the two key battles.
Scotland seemed to expose the defensive frailties of the Italian midfield, so Ireland will be looking to put Luke Marshall, or Sean O’Brien through the middle provided they win the battle at the breakdown.
DM: The question is: will Ireland replicate last week’s English performance?I mean: England tried in every way to find the way for the try line, keeping the ball and they failed. In the second half, Azzurri replied with the opponents tired and frustrated.
TS: A lot has been said this week about Ireland’s record over Italy, but is this the first time it will really come under threat?
BHH: Yes. It’s been close before between these teams, and this will be no different. The gap between Italy and the rest is closing if not closed already.
DM: I don’t think so: if I well remember, in the match played in Rome in 2011, Ireland won thanks to an O’Gara’s drop in the last minutes.
TS: Yes, but we went over there confident. There’ll be no O’Gara this time.
DM: And no Sexton.
TS: Do Italy smell blood?
DM: Italy smell blood. Ireland have nothing to ask from this 6 Nations. We had a huge performance in London last Sunday.
We’re expecting a great attendance at Stadio Olimpico.
DM: Well guys, I have a news for you: Andrea Lo Cicero has just announced his retirement.
BHH: I think for such a servant as Lo Cicero, they’ll want one last big performance. The Italians have been getting fitter each year, and you wouldn’t discount them from another big performance
DM: That is our big challenge: Azzurri must show they’re ready to win the big match they’re asked to win after a week of congratulations.
BHH: Dario, where will Ireland provide the biggest threat to the Italians?
DM: Breakdown area and BOD, is it enough? His last match with Irish jersey.
And the discipline! Irish forwards know a lot of dirty tricks and Azzuri must stay quiet.
And you, where will Italy provide the biggest threat?
TS: Dirty tricks? Our boys are saints!
DM: They’re as saintly as Luciano Moggi. Or Byron Moreno.
BHH: I think Alessandro Zanni has been the player of the tournament.
The battle of the backrow will be huge
DM: Pure talent, that Zanni.
BHH: it’ll be a close match, so whoever gets the forward momentum will put themselves in a great position, and Zanni has been carrying extremely effectively so far
DM: It will be interesting to look at our backs, they monopolized this week 6 Nations team.
TS: BHH, I’m not confident, are you?
BHH: Not really. Although Ireland are due a performance, they’ve made a habit of producing results when they’ve backed themselves into a corner.
I think we’ll sneak it, But it’ll be close right up until the final whistle
TS: Especially if we build up a big half time lead.
BHH: The lack of scores we get in the second half is very worrying. It was a feature of ’09 that we’d score in the championship minutes from 40-60.
DM: We shouldn’t forget Wayne Barnes is the referee: I hope he has more eyes than George Clancy in the rucks…
TS: Nearly there, gents. Care to give an exact score prediction for what promises to an electric day at Stadio Olympico. (I’m imagining the noise when LoCicero is replaced)
BHH: I think it’ll be extremely close, Ireland to win. maybe 17-15.
DM: I want to be confident: 16-14, Italy to win.
Two tries for Ireland. One for Azzurri.
TS: Also, a quick word on Wales v England, how do you see that going? Grand Slam or big choke?
DM: I pray for the big choke as a Welsh fan.
BHH: Probably England. I think they will have learnt from Dublin in 2011.
I will be praying for the choke too.
DM: But at the end, England will win 6N, without Grand Slam.
I predict another close match.
BHH: I don’t know, I think if Wales were to win, they’d win comfortably but if England win it’ll be close.
TS: Gents, enjoy your long Six Nations weekend.
