WHO’D BE a golfer? 6.30 am start one day and god knows what time the evening after! The good news is we at the TheScore are not plus-foured and spiked up, but we are taking a keen interest in the events at Royal St George over the coming days.
There is value to be had in the field, with some of the big Irish bookmakers paying out 1/4 odds up to the eighth place finisher – that’s pretty much unheard of!
So here is a little rundown of the possible value in the British Open field and what is to be avoided.
Any chance for the Irish?
We saw the good and the bad of Graeme McDowell last weekend in the Scottish Open, but he had a massive links win at Sawgrass last year in the US Open and grew up on the gorse of Royal Portrush so should be at home here. At 25/1 might be worth consideration.
Pádraig Harrington reckons he just needs something to click and he is back in contention as he says he has all the aspects of his game the way he wants them. We may have heard it before, but would like to be proved wrong and no one battle like Padraig.
A good outside chance at 28/1.
So who is the value in the field?
Jason Day (30/1)
14 tournaments – seven top 10s – two second places in the two majors this year – top ten in last three majors. They are the simple facts.
This quiet Australian hasn’t set the world on fire – yet. His best two results this year have been as runner up in the Masters and US Open, so it shows he has the head for pressure, but maybe not the bottle to go for the outright win as yet.
But even at 15/2 (quarter odds) for a top 7/8 finish, they are not to be laughed at and if you have a few riding on him, you want a cool temperament for the last day.
Matteo Manassero ( 55/1)
2009 Amateur Champion – two European tour wins before his 18th birthday and a boy not scared of the links – a good bet to be top eight at nearly 14/1.
The 18-year-old’s last three tournaments in France, Germany and the US Open, were not massively impressive, but he made the cuts in all three and is coming along nicely.
He is being touted as the next big thing. Hey hasn’t Rory only just become that?
Ah they better change the proverb to ‘time waits for no boy!’ But boy Manassero could make a impact in Kent.
Retief Goosen (40/1)
Goosen simply doesn’t do outside the top 10 in the Open, in fact in 11 years he has finished outside the top 25 just once. If he were a muscian I’m sure Louis Walsh would be sniffing around somewhere, so prolific is he at making the top of the charts, especially in the British Open.
So although never safe to assume anyone is going to make the cut – if you had to splash a few, Goosen would be up there on the list. (1/4 to make the cut)
Had a good weekend in the Scottish Open in horrendous conditions last weekend and as consistent as a the tides. Also has a top 10 from the last Royal St George tournament in 2003, so a bit of previous there Retief.
Sergio Garcia (28/1)
A punter’s nightmare. Sergio just has never done it. Floundered on the big stage on more than one occasion – but his stats in the Open speak for themselves.
Six top 10s in the last decade, including a Royal St George top 10 in 2003.
Has been enjoying his golf again of late, could be something to do with the death of his mentor and friend Seve – who knows? But there are signs he is back in the swing.
And in any betting - 7/1 (quarter -odds) is not to be sneezed at, so just on Open form alone, Sergio has to be worth a look.
Matt Kuchar (33/1)
Could well be the biggest American threat this weekend (funny how the golfing world has changed in a couple of years) as he has been the most consistent player on the PGA tour so far this year, and also braved the Scottish conditions last weekend to finish a well respectable tied tenth.
Out of 16 tournaments entered this year, he has made the cut in all of them and finished in the top 10 in nine. He is averaging under 69.5 shots per round, so you do the math for four days! Does it add up to money?
What about the other fella?
Rory McIlroy (7/1)
He blew up in Augusta; blew away the field and the sporting world at the Congessional, Bethasda in the US Open; and is what golf needs after Tiger’s demise.
At these odds however, Rory is only backable to win and the bookies know they will take in a lot on ‘the Rory Story’ over the coming years.
Although he has all the tools to win another major, it’s historically proven hard to back up a debut major win, with a win in the next major played. In fact only four have succeeded in doing this in the last century: Gene Sarazan in 1922; Lee Trevino in 1979/80; Bobby Locke in 1949/50; and Craig Wood in 1941.
The odds look stacked against Rory so go with the head over the heart. The value isn’t there for a place, don’t lose it on a win.