HEADING INTO THE final round of Champions Cup pool games, unbeaten Leinster will still need a stroke of fortune to secure a top-two seeding and home advantage as far as a potential semi, Munster require a win to reach the knockouts at all, and fate wonders whether it may conspire to pit the provincial rivals against each other as soon as the last 16.
What’s certain is that we will only be able to de-weed the full path ahead to Bilbao when the final whistle sounds in the last pool game between Glasgow Warriors and Saracens, which will have profound ramifications for the tournament bracket.
A reminder of how the pools actually determine the knockout seedings: the sides are ranked firstly based on where they finish in their pools, and only subsequently on the number of competition points they have amassed.
So, the four pool winners are ranked 1 to 4 in the seedings, the second-placed clubs from each pool are ranked 5 to 8, the third-placed clubs are ranked 9 to 12, and the fourth-placed clubs are ranked 13 to 16. Points difference is the first tiebreaker between sides from the same category who find themselves level on competition points at the end of the pool stage.
Leinster’s potential road to Bilbao
An expected bonus-point victory over a weakened Bayonne this Saturday will see Leinster into the knockouts as one of the top-three-ranked sides, with Pool 1 leaders Glasgow, as well as Bristol Bears and European champions Bordeaux (who meet at Ashton Gate on Sunday) also gunning for a top-two seeding.
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Leinster and Glasgow, as well as Bordeaux and Bristol Bears, are in the hunt for top seeding. Ben Brady / INPHO
Ben Brady / INPHO / INPHO
The two top-ranked sides would earn the right to home-country advantage in the semi-finals if they were to make it that far. The path ahead for the third seed, meanwhile, looks immediately more dangerous with Saracens — who last weekend shocked Toulouse — potentially coming into play as a last-16 opponent.
Should Leinster finish first or second in the overall rankings, The 42 projects that they would host either Pau or Edinburgh in their first knockout fixture. However, third seeding for Leo Cullen’s side could reunite them with past rivals Sarries, or bring Harlequins back to Dublin for a sequel to the sides’ pool-stage barnburner.
Incidentally, a tasty-looking last-16 clash between longtime Celtic nemeses Glasgow and Munster is also a distinct possibility depending on how things shake out at the top of the rankings, where points difference is likely to come into play.
Glasgow, currently second in the rankings on 15 match points, have a points difference of +24 heading into their final group game at home to Sarries. Bordeaux (15 PTS) are on +64 with a trip to high-scoring Bristol (14 PTS, +62) to come, while Leinster (14 PTS) will surely add significantly to their +26 differential away to the already-eliminated Bayonne.
Munster’s road to the last 16 (and potentially beyond)
The losing bonus point that Munster salvaged on their goal-line in Toulon means that a bonus-point victory over Castres this Saturday will grant them passage into the last 16 barring a freak set of results in Pool 2, wherein Bath, Edinburgh, Toulon and Gloucester could still technically all finish ahead of the southern province. In order for those circumstances to unfold, however, Edinburgh would have to pick up two bonus points in defeat away to Bath, and Toulon would have to earn the same in a loss at Gloucester, who would need to win with a try-scoring BP.
Were Munster to win without a bonus point, Clayton McMillan’s side could be left slightly more vulnerable to Edinburgh’s fairing at The Rec, where only one bonus point for the Scots and the aforementioned unlikely scenario between Gloucester and Toulon would knock Munster out. Munster-Castres is sandwiched between the other two pool games.
Munster claimed a losing bonus point at Toulon on Sunday. Dan Sheridan / INPHO
Dan Sheridan / INPHO / INPHO
Anything other than maximum points at Thomond Park would make Munster one of the lowest seeds in the knockouts should they make it, in which case they would most likely face a trip to one of Leinster, Bordeaux or Glasgow in the next stage.
It’s worth noting that Castres are in pretty the same boat as Munster, potentially win-and-in, and so Xavier Sadourny’s men shouldn’t be discounted off-hand given that the routinely horrible fixtures between these sides tend to be won by only a score. But Les Bleu et Blanc may well decide to prioritise their league game the following Saturday away to Bayonne, who sit a point clear of Castres in ninth in the Top 14 table.
Munster are currently favoured by the oddsmakers to beat the Frenchmen by well over 20 points. The 42 has the southern province making it through and travelling to another familiar foe, last season’s beaten finalists Northampton Saints, in the last 16.
With the knockouts determined by seedings from the last 16 onwards, if Munster are to pull off an away upset in the next stage, a quarter-final away to one of the highest-ranked sides — likely one of Leinster, Bordeaux or Glasgow — would await the two-time former European champions.
As for Leinster’s prospective quarter-final, Toulouse, La Rochelle and Northampton Saints would all theoretically be in the frame to come to Dublin for a blockbuster last-eight showdown. So too would the URC-leading Stormers or Toulon.
The 42′s Champions Cup R4 predictions (qualifying teams in bold)
Pau to beat the Bulls at home with a bonus point.
Bath to beat Edinburgh at home with a bonus point; Edinburgh to get nothing at The Rec.
Leinster to beat Bayonne away with a bonus point.
Stormers to beat Leicester Tigers at home with a bonus point.
Munster to beat Castres at home with a bonus point.
Toulouse to beat Sale Sharks at home with a bonus point; Sale Sharks to get nothing at Stade Ernest-Wallon
Toulon to beat Gloucester away without a bonus point.
Bordeaux to beat Bristol Bears away with a bonus point; Bristol to get a try-scoring bonus point at Ashton Gate.
La Rochelle to beat Harlequins at home with a bonus point; Harlequins to get nothing at Stade Marcel Deflandre.
Northampton Saints to beat Scarlets at home with a bonus point.
Glasgow Warriors to beat Saracens at home without a bonus point; but Saracens to get nothing at Scotstoun.
Consequent seedings for the Champions Cup Round of 16
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The prospective paths forward for Leinster and Munster in the Champions Cup
HEADING INTO THE final round of Champions Cup pool games, unbeaten Leinster will still need a stroke of fortune to secure a top-two seeding and home advantage as far as a potential semi, Munster require a win to reach the knockouts at all, and fate wonders whether it may conspire to pit the provincial rivals against each other as soon as the last 16.
What’s certain is that we will only be able to de-weed the full path ahead to Bilbao when the final whistle sounds in the last pool game between Glasgow Warriors and Saracens, which will have profound ramifications for the tournament bracket.
A reminder of how the pools actually determine the knockout seedings: the sides are ranked firstly based on where they finish in their pools, and only subsequently on the number of competition points they have amassed.
So, the four pool winners are ranked 1 to 4 in the seedings, the second-placed clubs from each pool are ranked 5 to 8, the third-placed clubs are ranked 9 to 12, and the fourth-placed clubs are ranked 13 to 16. Points difference is the first tiebreaker between sides from the same category who find themselves level on competition points at the end of the pool stage.
Leinster’s potential road to Bilbao
An expected bonus-point victory over a weakened Bayonne this Saturday will see Leinster into the knockouts as one of the top-three-ranked sides, with Pool 1 leaders Glasgow, as well as Bristol Bears and European champions Bordeaux (who meet at Ashton Gate on Sunday) also gunning for a top-two seeding.
The two top-ranked sides would earn the right to home-country advantage in the semi-finals if they were to make it that far. The path ahead for the third seed, meanwhile, looks immediately more dangerous with Saracens — who last weekend shocked Toulouse — potentially coming into play as a last-16 opponent.
Should Leinster finish first or second in the overall rankings, The 42 projects that they would host either Pau or Edinburgh in their first knockout fixture. However, third seeding for Leo Cullen’s side could reunite them with past rivals Sarries, or bring Harlequins back to Dublin for a sequel to the sides’ pool-stage barnburner.
Incidentally, a tasty-looking last-16 clash between longtime Celtic nemeses Glasgow and Munster is also a distinct possibility depending on how things shake out at the top of the rankings, where points difference is likely to come into play.
Glasgow, currently second in the rankings on 15 match points, have a points difference of +24 heading into their final group game at home to Sarries. Bordeaux (15 PTS) are on +64 with a trip to high-scoring Bristol (14 PTS, +62) to come, while Leinster (14 PTS) will surely add significantly to their +26 differential away to the already-eliminated Bayonne.
Munster’s road to the last 16 (and potentially beyond)
The losing bonus point that Munster salvaged on their goal-line in Toulon means that a bonus-point victory over Castres this Saturday will grant them passage into the last 16 barring a freak set of results in Pool 2, wherein Bath, Edinburgh, Toulon and Gloucester could still technically all finish ahead of the southern province. In order for those circumstances to unfold, however, Edinburgh would have to pick up two bonus points in defeat away to Bath, and Toulon would have to earn the same in a loss at Gloucester, who would need to win with a try-scoring BP.
Were Munster to win without a bonus point, Clayton McMillan’s side could be left slightly more vulnerable to Edinburgh’s fairing at The Rec, where only one bonus point for the Scots and the aforementioned unlikely scenario between Gloucester and Toulon would knock Munster out. Munster-Castres is sandwiched between the other two pool games.
Anything other than maximum points at Thomond Park would make Munster one of the lowest seeds in the knockouts should they make it, in which case they would most likely face a trip to one of Leinster, Bordeaux or Glasgow in the next stage.
It’s worth noting that Castres are in pretty the same boat as Munster, potentially win-and-in, and so Xavier Sadourny’s men shouldn’t be discounted off-hand given that the routinely horrible fixtures between these sides tend to be won by only a score. But Les Bleu et Blanc may well decide to prioritise their league game the following Saturday away to Bayonne, who sit a point clear of Castres in ninth in the Top 14 table.
Munster are currently favoured by the oddsmakers to beat the Frenchmen by well over 20 points. The 42 has the southern province making it through and travelling to another familiar foe, last season’s beaten finalists Northampton Saints, in the last 16.
With the knockouts determined by seedings from the last 16 onwards, if Munster are to pull off an away upset in the next stage, a quarter-final away to one of the highest-ranked sides — likely one of Leinster, Bordeaux or Glasgow — would await the two-time former European champions.
As for Leinster’s prospective quarter-final, Toulouse, La Rochelle and Northampton Saints would all theoretically be in the frame to come to Dublin for a blockbuster last-eight showdown. So too would the URC-leading Stormers or Toulon.
The 42′s Champions Cup R4 predictions (qualifying teams in bold)
Consequent seedings for the Champions Cup Round of 16
Potential Champions Cup Round of 16 fixtures
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Champions Cup projections Rugby