THE OLD CLICHE about football being a funny old game has been heard many times before – but could it be that by losing some matches of their Premier League run-in, Liverpool and Stoke might improve their chances of qualifying for next year’s Europa League?
Journalists and football fans have been scratching their heads all morning in an attempt to unravel the logic behind the selection of England’s three representatives for the 2011-2012 tournament.
As things stand, the selection criteria states that the team which finishes in fifth position and the team which wins the FA Cup – whoever they may be – will take part in Europe’s second-tier competition alongside Carling Cup winners Birmingham.
But what happens if the same team finishes fifth and wins the FA Cup (i.e. Manchester City)?
Read on as we try to work out the different scenarios.
Scenario 1: Stoke win the FA Cup
This is the most straightforward resolution to the whole muddle.
If Stoke beat Manchester City in Wembley on May 14, they will qualify for next season’s Europa League alongside the team which finishes fifth.
Simples.
Scenario 2: City win the FA Cup and finish fifth in the Premiership
This is where it gets complicated. If City win the FA Cup and finish fifth, they are essentially occupying two Europa League spots. Although they could probably afford to field two completely different squads, that won’t be allowed … I hope.
So who gets the other Europa League place?
According to journalist Iain Macintosh, both the FA and the Premier League have confirmed that if Manchester City end up occupying both Europa League berths, the second spot will go to the team in sixth place in the Premier League – which, as things stand, looks likely to be Liverpool.
Scenario 3: City win the FA Cup and finish in the top four
However, with City currently lying fourth in the league, there is still a very real chance that they could both win the FA Cup and finish in the top four of the Premiership.
If that happens, they will then be occupying a spot in both the Champions League and the Europa League. Again, obviously they can only play in one tournament or the other and, as the Champions League is the premier competition, they will enter that and forfeit their place in the Europa League.
If that happens, however, the spot which City have not taken up will go to the beaten finalists in the FA Cup – Stoke.
Losing your way into Europe
As things stand, the league table looks as follows
- 4. Manchester City – P32 – 56pts
- 5. Tottenham – P31 – 53pts
- 6. Liverpool – P33 – 49pts
Unless Spurs make a mess of their two games in hand over Liverpool, it seems likely that either themselves or City will finish fourth, with the other side finishing in fifth.
As scenarios two and three above make clear, Liverpool need Spurs to finish fourth if they are to qualify for the Europa League while Stoke need City to finish fourth for their sake.
This is where it gets interesting.
For the penultimate round of games, the magical fixture computer has coughed up – yup, you guessed it – Liverpool vs Tottenham (May 15) and Manchester City vs Stoke (May 17).
So, essentially, a win for either Liverpool or Stoke would damage their opponents’ chances of finishing in the top four – and, in the process, hinder their own chances of securing the final Europa League place. By the looks of things, the losers may end up as the real winners.
Of course, it would save everybody a headache if Stoke could just beat City in the FA Cup Final. If only football was ever that simple …
