I ADMIT IT, I always do it about the time Arsenal effectively fall out of the title race.

It is a bit of a guilty pleasure.  It is one that “true fans” of the game and of their teams tell me is one that I should be looked down upon for.  What is it? I tend to get caught up in looking ahead to the aptly-named silly season.

Perhaps my love for this part of the game is also part of why I love fantasy games.  Perhaps they are completely unrelated character flaws.  Regardless, I can’t get enough of the speculation, the pondering of how a player would fit into a new team, and the value that a player SHOULD fetch versus what is being bandied about.

With that in mind, I give you the interesting case of one Charlie Adam.  I wrote a little bit about this on our blog this past week and it got readers fired up (mostly calling me an idiot) so I figured I’d share my thoughts in this forum and see what everyone has to say.

The gist of the comment was that while I find Adam to be a very good player, a great story on a team that has surprised us for most of the season, and a stud of a fantasy player any “big club” buying him will be sorely disappointed in the results.  Why you ask?  The things at the root of his value to Blackpool would go away if he were playing for a bigger club.

At the root of Adam’s (in my view) inflated value on the transfer market are the following things:

• Goals – He has scored nine for Blackpool this season which is a nice total for a midfielder.  That said, six of the nine have been from the spot and at Man United, Spurs, or Liverpool (the three clubs mentioned most often as big name suitors) he wouldn’t be the one taking the penalties.  Three goals and six assists don’t look nearly as impressive.
• Set pieces – Adam takes great set pieces that would be made even more dangerous with better players potentially on the other end.  The downside here is that the three teams above already have excellent players to take set pieces in the form of Nani, Giggs, Rooney, Bale, Modric, Meireles, Suarez, and Gerrard if he returns healthy.  Hard to see Adam replicating his value with those guys ahead of him.
• Passing during the run of play – This attribute of Adam’s would be diminished the least as he’d at least have the opportunity to make incisive passes during the run of play.  The problem with investing here is that Adam wouldn’t be on the ball nearly as much for a bigger club, he’d just be another better-than-average passer.

Am I implying that Adam is incapable of being a productive player for one of the clubs listed above? Not in the least.  I think he’d be a nice squad player in the mold of a Michael Carrick.  Most of the venom directed my way over on the blog was for saying Carrick was a disappointment.

The common wisdom was that he has been at least a part time starter for multiple league titles.  While that is true, I’d imagine even Fergie would admit that he paid WAY over the odds for someone who hasn’t started more than 24 matches in league since his first season with the club in 2006-07.

I see Adam as being in a similar situation.  He could go to a bigger club and find himself in the same situation as a decent squad player.  Not a bad fate for him really.  He might win a trophy or two.  His pay would be certain to increase.

That said, if the supporters of the big club that gets him are expecting a similar performance to what Blackpool supporters got this season, please don’t hold your breath.  Hope instead that he goes somewhere like Fulham where he can be a better and younger version of Danny Murphy or Villa where he can plug the gaping hole in the center of their midfield.

We now take you to your regularly scheduled fantasy analysis:

The Schedule

Where this week we break down who plays twice and who doesn’t play at all to help you make some decisions as the season starts to wind down.

Two-gamers

• Chelsea – Not only do they play twice but they play fairly weak opponents in West Brom (away) and Birmingham (home).  If you have a limited number of slots for Chelsea players, I have to say I like their defenders/goalkeeper more in this situation than the attackers.
• Arsenal – Arsenal also have one home match and one away but theirs are a bit more difficult with Liverpool (home) seeming to be exactly the sort of team that will hurt the Gunners with a dominant aerial presence in Carroll and a crafty partners in Suarez and Meireles.  The second match is the North London Derby with Spurs desperate for a win.  Certainly not a walk in the park for Arsenal and I’d favor their attackers over their defenders.
• Birmingham – Their first match – home to Sunderland – looks pretty enticing as Sunderland limp toward the finish line.  The problem is the second match where a trip to the Bridge looks daunting for attack-challenged Brum.  I’d consider this to be more like 1.5 matches as opposed to 2.

No Matches

Bolton, Fulham, Stoke, Wolves, and City.  We’re at the time of year when I’d be looking to get rid of as many of these guys as you can.  The time to hold player that you have at discounts has gone – live for the moment and make sure you’re getting the most out of your line-up.

One-Gamers

Of the one-gamers, Everton and Blackpool are the most interesting to me as they are both home and facing bad teams (Rovers and Wigan respectively).

Forwards

• Drogba – the best of a bad lot for Chelsea recently but the match-ups are good ones.
• RvP – He’s been playing better than Drogba and seems likely to get his points regardless of how things turn out for Arsenal across these two matches.
• Carroll – If you’re going for a one-gamer, he’s my bet against an Arsenal defense that is rotten at defending big forwards.
• Beckford – My back-up option from among the one-gamers

Midfielders

• Lampard – Watching last weekend, Malouda looked the much more likely to make an impact but over two matches against lousy teams, I want Chelsea’s PK-taker in my team.  I see at least one, if not two PK goals plus whatever else he produces from the run of play.
• Walcott – I see Wenger trying to speed things up and Walcott is the man to do it.  This is even more important with Cesc and Nasri fading from fantasy relevance in the second half of the season.
• Wilshere – Inexpensive in most leagues, he’s on the verge of a breakout (I know, I’ve been saying it all season but this is the time to pick him up with two matches worth of opportunity)
• Gardner – Birmingham are a slow and (occasionally) steady type of team and Gardner is the personification of that – with doubt all around him with Zigic, Martins, and Bentley all in various stages of coming back from injuries Gardner has quietly been an effective fantasy player and my bet for value from Birmingham’s two matches.
• Adam – If you’re going for a one-gamer I assume you already have him but I’d keep him or get him if you’ve run out of slots for two-gamers.

Defenders

• Luiz – Best combination of potential and price – his tendency to dive in and get one bad YC per match is a worry though.
• ACole – The best producer on the team whose defense has the highest potential this match week.  He’s expensive but worth it this time around.
• Smalling – Very likely to continue starting in the league with Rio held out for Champions League engagements.
• Johnson – Another quiet point-producer from Birmingham – price is great and you have two cracks at points and one of them is a very solid chance for a clean sheet.

Goalkeepers

• Cech – really a no-brainer of a choice.  I’d take him over Drogba to be honest if I were choosing premium-priced players from Chelsea.  I like Chelsea’s chances of two clean sheets more than I like their forwards’ chances of really breaking out.
• Foster – All he does is put up great fantasy numbers while toiling for a poor team.
• Howard – Everton are pushing farther and farther up the table and Howard’s fantasy performances have been looking up – solid bet that he’ll get the clean sheet points at home against goal-shy Rovers.

Captains

• Cech – I generally don’t like captaining a keeper but he’s a great bet for a lot of points
• RvP – The best bet among attackers to do well over the course of two matches.
• Lamps – Did I mention I’m expecting some goals from the spot from Lamps?