OH YES, WELCOME back to the seductive terror of total clarity.
How we’ve missed you!
The clarity: Ireland are in Hungary for no reason other than to win, as this is a play-off for a World Cup play-off.
This is a merciful departure from our years since the Euro 2020 play-off against Slovakia, stuffed as they have been with dull friendlies and byzantine Nations League games, with qualifiers largely reduced to referenda on managers and lensed for our favourite friend, The Bigger Picture.
Today there exists no picture bigger than the tramlines of a Budapest pitch, and all that matters for all is the first few feet in front of our face.
To state the naked permutations: Ireland must win to finish second in their group and make the World Cup play-offs. Should they lose or draw, Hungary will take that play-off place instead.
Heimir Hallgrimsson admitted yesterday that it is a challenge to refocus after the wild-eyed night against Portugal, and he is stressing the defensive discipline and general work ethic that secured that famous result rather than the result itself. Hence you can expect Ireland to stick largely to the same, 5-4-1 script this afternoon. Hallgrimsson even says he is tempted to retain the same starting team from Thursday, although the return from suspension of Ryan Manning and Jayson Molumby has buttressed his options.
Manning’s creativity and set piece-quality makes the case for his return compelling, though it would be harsh for Liam Scales to miss out, who provides his own penalty box-threat on corners.
With Evan Ferguson officially out, Troy Parrott will again lead the line, while Hallgrimsson also must decide whether Seamus Coleman, at 37, can ride again. Coleman’s return to the squad in October has been transformative, and Hallgrimsson has realised the scale of his error in leaving him out of September’s window. Had Coleman gone to Yerevan, today’s permutations may have been even more favourable for Ireland.
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“In life there are two kinds of people: people who are vacuums and people who are batteries”, counselled Hallgrimsson yesterday, “who will give energy and give joy and give enthusiasm. [Seamus] is really, really a big battery for this group, in so many ways. That is probably the biggest compliment I can pay anyone in life: he is the biggest battery I have ever worked with in a football team. A man who loves his country and will do anything, not only to shine himself, but to get the best out of everyone around him.”
Ireland have often appeared to operating on reserve energy in the second game of an international window, and Hallgrimsson has reacted by reducing the players’ physical load in advance of this game. And given Ireland led by two goals for the entirety of the second half against Portugal, Parrott and others were substituted earlier than planned, with today’s game in mind.
Plus, the sheer, Himalayan high of Thursday night may mean Ireland’s crash might still leave them operating at a sufficiently lofty level.
“We’ve not done anything yet, we’ve not qualified for anything”, says Caoimhín Kelleher. “You need to use it in the right way. But for sure it gives us a boost seeing how big of a win that was and how the whole country gets behind us.”
There is hope among the Irish squad too that the permutations being loaded in Hungary’s favour may bring more pressure to bear for them, while Hallgrimsson has now made multiple references to the fact that Hungary likely felt that their win in Armenia on Thursday was enough for them to finish the job, given there was surely no way that Ireland could beat Portugal. “They were probably close to celebrating finishing with a win in Armenia. Then seeing us win in Dublin was a setback or a delay in their celebration.”
Still, historical context speaks to the scale of Ireland’s challenge today. Thursday was only the 13th competitive game in which Ireland beat a side ranked above them in Fifa’s standings since they were introduced in 1993, and today they must win consecutive games against superior opponents for the first time since Fifa started ranking teams.
Hungary have meanwhile changed since Ireland met them in September. Having played with a back three for years, they shifted to a back four for the 2-2 draw with Portugal last month and retained it for Thursday’s win in Armenia. The whole system is still rigged around Dominik Szoboszalai, albeit counter-intuitively.
Szoboszlai and Coleman - neighbours on Merseyside - clash during Ireland's friendly win over Hungary in Dublin last year. Ben Brady / INPHO
Ben Brady / INPHO / INPHO
In Yerevan he was Hungary’s most advanced player without the ball and among their deepest when they had it. His outstanding pressing will make life uncomfortable for the Irish defence – Cristiano Ronaldo was somewhat less interested in this aspect of the game on Thursday – while Ireland will have to find a way to curtail his ability to run Hungary’s attacking game from deep. The fully-charged Molumby may therefore be loosed upon him.
Ireland must also be switched on to the penalty-box threat of Barnabas Varga, to whom they were slumbering the opening minutes of the clash in Dublin in September. Only Ronaldo has more goals in this qualifying group so far than Varga.
The atmosphere at the 70,000-capacity Ferenc Puskas Arena will be intense, albeit not as dramatic as it might have been, with Hungary’s ultras group, the Carpathian Brigade, in dispute with their football federation and therefore banned from unveiling one of their trademark pre-game tifos. (The national team’s press officer yesterday denied as “fake news” claims the federation had banned fans from wearing the national colours to the game.)
The Puskas Arena will host this season’s Champions League final, and it stands as the centrepiece of Viktor Orban’s gargantuan investment in football, partly done for the aim of returning Hungary to the World Cup for the first time since 1986.
Though today is not a day to talk about State investment. Today is instead a day to talk about national feeling, which Ireland rekindled so raucously and ludicrously against Portugal on Thursday night.
Hence their achievement is not just in having something to play for in Budapest this afternoon, but that you are going to sit down to watch it with that awful churn in your stomach, knowing that some beautiful or terrible feeling is shortly at hand.
The 2026 World Cup is still a real thing for Ireland, so if you cannot enjoy this, then make sure you at least experience this fretful handling of fragile dreams across two fraught and hectic hours.
Because we’ve spent too long numbed to all feeling.
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Embrace the nerves and the terror, because Ireland's World Cup hopes all come down to today
OH YES, WELCOME back to the seductive terror of total clarity.
How we’ve missed you!
The clarity: Ireland are in Hungary for no reason other than to win, as this is a play-off for a World Cup play-off.
This is a merciful departure from our years since the Euro 2020 play-off against Slovakia, stuffed as they have been with dull friendlies and byzantine Nations League games, with qualifiers largely reduced to referenda on managers and lensed for our favourite friend, The Bigger Picture.
Today there exists no picture bigger than the tramlines of a Budapest pitch, and all that matters for all is the first few feet in front of our face.
To state the naked permutations: Ireland must win to finish second in their group and make the World Cup play-offs. Should they lose or draw, Hungary will take that play-off place instead.
Heimir Hallgrimsson admitted yesterday that it is a challenge to refocus after the wild-eyed night against Portugal, and he is stressing the defensive discipline and general work ethic that secured that famous result rather than the result itself. Hence you can expect Ireland to stick largely to the same, 5-4-1 script this afternoon. Hallgrimsson even says he is tempted to retain the same starting team from Thursday, although the return from suspension of Ryan Manning and Jayson Molumby has buttressed his options.
Manning’s creativity and set piece-quality makes the case for his return compelling, though it would be harsh for Liam Scales to miss out, who provides his own penalty box-threat on corners.
With Evan Ferguson officially out, Troy Parrott will again lead the line, while Hallgrimsson also must decide whether Seamus Coleman, at 37, can ride again. Coleman’s return to the squad in October has been transformative, and Hallgrimsson has realised the scale of his error in leaving him out of September’s window. Had Coleman gone to Yerevan, today’s permutations may have been even more favourable for Ireland.
“In life there are two kinds of people: people who are vacuums and people who are batteries”, counselled Hallgrimsson yesterday, “who will give energy and give joy and give enthusiasm. [Seamus] is really, really a big battery for this group, in so many ways. That is probably the biggest compliment I can pay anyone in life: he is the biggest battery I have ever worked with in a football team. A man who loves his country and will do anything, not only to shine himself, but to get the best out of everyone around him.”
Ireland have often appeared to operating on reserve energy in the second game of an international window, and Hallgrimsson has reacted by reducing the players’ physical load in advance of this game. And given Ireland led by two goals for the entirety of the second half against Portugal, Parrott and others were substituted earlier than planned, with today’s game in mind.
Plus, the sheer, Himalayan high of Thursday night may mean Ireland’s crash might still leave them operating at a sufficiently lofty level.
“We’ve not done anything yet, we’ve not qualified for anything”, says Caoimhín Kelleher. “You need to use it in the right way. But for sure it gives us a boost seeing how big of a win that was and how the whole country gets behind us.”
There is hope among the Irish squad too that the permutations being loaded in Hungary’s favour may bring more pressure to bear for them, while Hallgrimsson has now made multiple references to the fact that Hungary likely felt that their win in Armenia on Thursday was enough for them to finish the job, given there was surely no way that Ireland could beat Portugal. “They were probably close to celebrating finishing with a win in Armenia. Then seeing us win in Dublin was a setback or a delay in their celebration.”
Still, historical context speaks to the scale of Ireland’s challenge today. Thursday was only the 13th competitive game in which Ireland beat a side ranked above them in Fifa’s standings since they were introduced in 1993, and today they must win consecutive games against superior opponents for the first time since Fifa started ranking teams.
Hungary have meanwhile changed since Ireland met them in September. Having played with a back three for years, they shifted to a back four for the 2-2 draw with Portugal last month and retained it for Thursday’s win in Armenia. The whole system is still rigged around Dominik Szoboszalai, albeit counter-intuitively.
In Yerevan he was Hungary’s most advanced player without the ball and among their deepest when they had it. His outstanding pressing will make life uncomfortable for the Irish defence – Cristiano Ronaldo was somewhat less interested in this aspect of the game on Thursday – while Ireland will have to find a way to curtail his ability to run Hungary’s attacking game from deep. The fully-charged Molumby may therefore be loosed upon him.
Ireland must also be switched on to the penalty-box threat of Barnabas Varga, to whom they were slumbering the opening minutes of the clash in Dublin in September. Only Ronaldo has more goals in this qualifying group so far than Varga.
The atmosphere at the 70,000-capacity Ferenc Puskas Arena will be intense, albeit not as dramatic as it might have been, with Hungary’s ultras group, the Carpathian Brigade, in dispute with their football federation and therefore banned from unveiling one of their trademark pre-game tifos. (The national team’s press officer yesterday denied as “fake news” claims the federation had banned fans from wearing the national colours to the game.)
The Puskas Arena will host this season’s Champions League final, and it stands as the centrepiece of Viktor Orban’s gargantuan investment in football, partly done for the aim of returning Hungary to the World Cup for the first time since 1986.
Though today is not a day to talk about State investment. Today is instead a day to talk about national feeling, which Ireland rekindled so raucously and ludicrously against Portugal on Thursday night.
Hence their achievement is not just in having something to play for in Budapest this afternoon, but that you are going to sit down to watch it with that awful churn in your stomach, knowing that some beautiful or terrible feeling is shortly at hand.
The 2026 World Cup is still a real thing for Ireland, so if you cannot enjoy this, then make sure you at least experience this fretful handling of fragile dreams across two fraught and hectic hours.
Because we’ve spent too long numbed to all feeling.
Ireland (Possible XI): Kelleher; Coleman, O’Brien, Collins, O’Shea, Scales; Cullen, Molumby; Ogbene, Manning; Parrott
Hungary (Possible XI): Dibusz; Nego, Orban, A Szalai, Kerkez; Styles, Schafer, Szoboszalai; Bolla, Varga, Sallai
On TV: RTÉ; KO: 2pm
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2026 world cup qualifiers Hungary match preview Republic Of Ireland