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Ireland's top-level Test experience should prove too much for hosts Japan

Joe Schmidt’s men are looking to ramp up their performance in Shizuoka today.

EVEN SOME OF the locals are getting behind Ireland as Joe Schmidt’s side look to essentially wrap up Pool A of the World Cup against hosts Japan today at the 50,889-capacity Ecopa Stadium in Shizuoka [KO 8.15am Irish time, eir Sport/RTÉ].

The mayor of Fukuroi – the area in which Schmidt’s squad have been staying – has been wearing an Ireland jersey for much of the past month and, though he is obliged to don a Japan shirt to attend the match today, he said his “heart is green.”

The mayor’s favourite player is Johnny Sexton, but even without the experienced out-half, the widespread expectation is that Ireland will power to their second win in Japan today, with Schmidt’s side having 21-point favouritism.

dave-kilcoyne-james-ryan-jean-kleyn-and-niall-scannell Ireland at Ecopa Stadium for their captain's run. Dan Sheridan / INPHO Dan Sheridan / INPHO / INPHO

A wide margin of defeat would be damaging, if not catastrophic, for Japan’s hopes of a quarter-final, with Samoa and Scotland still to come for Jamie Joseph’s men.

But if Ireland can deliver a similarly physical and organised performance to the one that saw them beat Scotland last weekend – or an even better performance, as Schmidt hopes – Japan will likely struggle. All of us must hope that Japan prove more competitive than the Scots.

World Rugby and tournament organisers would dearly love a shock here, but Schmidt’s men have all the tools to avoid a slip-up.

Ireland’s scrum has been a talking point this week and one would expect a fired-up Cian Healy to lead the surge in that area, while Peter O’Mahony, Iain Henderson, and James Ryan will be eyeing up the Japan lineout as a possible weakness.

With captain Michael Leitch dropped to the bench, Japan are without perhaps their best lineout operator. 38-year-old former Blackrock lock Luke Thompson and recently-qualified James Moore will be under pressure to ensure Japan get the set-piece possession that can allow their inventive and high-tempo attack to launch off.

Should Japan have a solid source at scrum and lineout, attack coach Tony Brown – who Leinster attempted to recruit in 2015 – has an array of clever power plays and strike moves to threaten Ireland.

Japan struggled under pressure from South Africa at lineout time in their final World Cup warm-up game, while the Boks also showed Ireland a template with their incessant contestable kicking, causing Japan major problems and leading to several tries.

Jamie Joseph’s team had further issues aerially in a very nervous performance against Russia last Friday, so expect Ireland to look to dominate in that department, even with a new fullback in the shape of Ryohei Yamanaka.

jack-carty Jack Carty will be at out-half for Ireland. Dan Sheridan / INPHO Dan Sheridan / INPHO / INPHO

Not helping Japan’s cause is the fact that they often try to hide out-half Yu Tamura on set-piece defence. Look out for how he swaps with back three players on lineout defence and fills the blindside off scrums, then note how Schmidt attempts to attack this trait.

Tamura’s relatively poor understanding of backfield positioning is a real opportunity for Schmidt’s intelligence in designing power plays or kicking tactics.

Andy Farrell will also look for a repeat of last weekend’s smothering defensive performance, even if the conditions are set to be very hot and dry – potentially providing Japan with greater scope to move the ball wide more accurately than Scotland.

Farrell’s charges will be aware of Japan’s clever shapes in phase play, which vary depending on the opposition but often feature pullback passes and clever short running lines of scrum-half Yutaka Nagare. Farrell will ask Ireland’s players to get into Japanese faces and look to intercept any predictable passing, which the hosts can be guilty of.

Ireland’s defence will also be cognisant of Japan’s tendency to immediately release, bounce back to their feet, and carry a second time after being tackled. Blindside flanker Kazuki Himeno – who is also a jackaling threat and big carrier – is a particular expert at this skill, which James Lowe has popularised in Ireland.

Outside centre Timothy Lafaele’s offloading and quick hands are a threat to Ireland’s defence too, although his decision-making in defence often leaves him disconnected from players either side. Again, watch out for how Schmidt attempts to unlock that door.

Amanaki Lelei Mafi’s brutal ball-carrying will have been a focus for Ireland this week and they will target him as a key momentum-giver for Japan. The 29-year-old can be sloppy with his discipline, but there is no doubting his physical impact in the tackle and carry.

In openside and captain Pieter ‘Lappies’ Labuschagne, hot-stepping wing Kotaro Matsushima, and experienced hooker Shota Horie, Japan have many good players but they simply haven’t had the same exposure to top-level Test rugby as Ireland have.

japan-v-russia-pool-a-2019-rugby-world-cup-tokyo-stadium Kazuki Himeno is a key man for Japan. Ashley Western Ashley Western

Out-half Jack Carty is, of course, among the least experienced players who will feature but his classy skillset has been matched with a rather grizzled team around him, particularly up front. 

Captain Rory Best backs up an 80-minute outing in between Healy and Furlong, while Henderson and Ryan continue to build their second-row understanding, as CJ Stander and Josh van der Flier look to repeat strong performances alongside O’Mahony.

Conor Murray’s nous will be important at scrum-half, Garry Ringrose and Chris Farrell combine again in midfield, while the first-choice back three of Jacob Stockdale, Rob Kearney and Keith Earls has been reunited.

Schmidt has spoken about Ireland playing with more width and that would be enjoyable to see, but the primary focus is likely to be on stifling Japan, killing their intent to play at a high tempo, bullying them at set-piece time, and clinically taking chances in the Japanese 22.

It has proven a hugely successful formula for Ireland in the past, and Schmidt’s hope will be that those foundations lead on to a more clinical attacking performance, after his side failed to take full advantage of 10 linebreaks against Scotland.

Angus Gardner will be under pressure to perform after being criticised by Schmidt – among others – and the Australian will be keen to set a disciplined tone early in the game. One hopes the dreaded high tackle controversy is not added to here.

Ireland certainly have the stronger starting XV, while their bench also appears to offer more impact, with front rows Sean Cronin, Dave Kilcoyne, and Andrew Porter straining at the leash.

Tadhg Beirne will be eager for another shot after the frustration of being harshly yellow-carded against Scotland, while Rhys Ruddock will add power in what will be his first appearance of the tournament.

tadhg-furlong-and-peter-omahony Ecopa Stadium will be rocking. Dan Sheridan / INPHO Dan Sheridan / INPHO / INPHO

Joey Carbery’s return from an ankle injury is a major boost, Luke McGrath’s support lines could be useful later in the game, and Jordan Larmour would enjoy a chance to build on last weekend’s strong outing at fullback.

The emotional factor of playing on home soil proved to be a negative for Japan last weekend as they struggled with the pressure, but head coach Joseph will hope it is turned on its head today. 

But after a bonus-point win last weekend left Ireland with room to improve, the away team should have enough quality and composure to pull clear after a tough contest. 

 Japan:

15. Ryohei Yamanaka
14. Kotaro Matsushima
13. Timothy Lafaele
12. Ryoto Nakamura
11. Will Tupou
10. Yu Tamura
9. Yutaka Nagare

1. Keita Inagaki
2. Shota Horie
3. Jiwon Koo
4. Luke Thompson
5. James Moore
6. Kazuki Himeno
7. Pieter Labuschagne (captain)
8. Amanaki Lelei Mafi

Replacements:

16. Atsushi Sakate
17. Isileli Nakajima
18. Asaeli Ai Valu
19. Wimpie van der Walt
20. Michael Leitch
21. Fumiaki Tanaka
22. Rikiya Matsuda
23. Lomano Lava Lemeki

 Ireland:

15. Rob Kearney
14. Keith Earls
13. Garry Ringrose
12. Chris Farrell
11. Jacob Stockdale
10. Jack Carty
9. Conor Murray

1. Cian Healy
2. Rory Best (captain)
3. Tadhg Furlong
4. Iain Henderson
5. James Ryan
6. Peter O’Mahony
7. Josh van der Flier
8. CJ Stander

Replacements:

16. Sean Cronin
17. Dave Kilcoyne
18. Andrew Porter
19. Tadhg Beirne
20. Rhys Ruddock 
21. Luke McGrath
22. Joey Carbery
23. Jordan Larmour

Referee: Angus Gardner [Australia]. 

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