NOW IS SURELY not the time to start shaking things up and worrying about what may lie ahead.
Ireland did that in 2019 and it was a major mistake. As the IRFU’s post-World Cup review concluded, Joe Schmidt’s side underestimated Japan. The Ireland boss opted not to pick Johnny Sexton in his matchday 23. The out-half had to watch from the stands as the Brave Blossoms rocked Ireland and the entire tournament.
It’s a cautionary tale.
Ireland are deserved favourites for this Saturday’s Pool B clash with Scotland on account of their run of eight consecutive wins over Gregor Townsend’s side since 2017, as well as their current 16-game winning streak against all opposition.
But favouritism is no guarantee. Ireland might have enjoyed a brilliant run of wins over the Scots in recent years but none of those victories have been easily gained. This Scotland team haven’t been world beaters but they’re a fine side and take some beating. It’s easy to diminish Ireland’s wins against them just because of the winning streak. Ireland have rarely, if ever, rotated or rested players against Scotland.
This weekend’s clash with the Scots has more riding on it than usual too. It is akin to a round-of-16 knock-out tie given that both sides could be packing their bags if they lose.
There are a range of permutations of course, as discussed in this piece, but really the equation is simple for Andy Farrell – go out and win to top Pool B with a clean sweep of four victories from four games. That would see Ireland carry serious momentum into a quarter-final against New Zealand in Paris a week later.
Ireland have just come off a break weekend, which was timely in the wake of their battle of win over South Africa. The Irish players have had a chance to mentally refresh and recover from the various physical bumps and bruises that game unsurprisingly left. They certainly aren’t feeling fatigued.
There might be a big quarter-final to come a week later but it’s not guaranteed, so there simply isn’t room for Ireland to take anything for granted.
That’s why Farrell should stick rigidly with his winning formula when it comes to his team selection this weekend.
The Ireland boss started what was very close to his first-choice team in the pool wins over Romania and Tonga, which was a surprise in some ways but made perfect sense when factoring in the break weekend and his desire to just keep his team’s momentum rolling through this competition.
It was obviously full-strength for the Springboks game and it should be the same for this weekend against the team ranked number five in the world.
Given that Dan Sheehan was only returning from his foot injury for that clash with South Africa, it was sensible to use him off the bench as Rónan Kelleher started in the number two shirt.
Sheehan came through unscathed and looked fit, so it would make sense for him to resume as the starting hooker against Scotland. It’s a spot that Sheehan has earned over the last two seasons and he has arguably become one of the world’s best hookers.
Sheehan and Kelleher swapping places would be understandable but that aside, Farrell should avoid making changes to his starting XV unless there are injury issues this week.
There has been some discussion about Robbie Henshaw coming into the midfield to start against the Scots. While he is a brilliant, proven Test centre, there’s no denying that Bundee Aki and Garry Ringrose have completely earned their status as the first-choice pairing. It would be harsh to drop either of them. And surely not a single Irish player would accept being ‘rested’ for such a big game.
Second row James Ryan has been carrying a hand injury since the South Africa match but Ireland say he returned to full training today. If there is concern over Ryan, there is an extremely experienced and in-form replacement for him in Iain Henderson, who would also take over the lineout calling from Ryan.
As for the Irish bench, the expected availability of back row Jack Conan could also mean a change there. Though he has been sidelined since early August, it’s worth remembering that Conan has been a key part of Ireland’s frontline matchday 23 in recent seasons.
Farrell is never quick to forget those contributions and Ireland have been patient with Conan’s recovery because they believe he can have a genuine impact on this World Cup. So if he’s ready to go, it makes sense to include Conan among the replacements.
Otherwise, Farrell should stick with his winning formula from the Springboks clash. Deviating from his usual practice of focusing 100% on just winning the next game would be tempting fate.
