AT THE MIDWAY point, the Rugby Championship table has an unusual look to it. With Argentina leading the way – just edging Australia on points difference – New Zealand in third and the world champion Springboks propping up the table, the opening three rounds have left us with one of the most open and intriguing championships in recent memory.
Looking at the last three rounds of results and the remaining three weekends of fixtures, it’s hard to predict how the competition will play out as on any given day, all four sides look capable of beating each other.
Here’s how the four nations are shaping up ahead of this weekend’s round four fixtures.
Argentina
Top of the table at the midway point, life is looking good for the Pumas under the guidance of new head coach Michael Cheika, who took on the job following a hugely challenging period for Argentinian rugby – before playing Scotland in July, Argentina hadn’t played a home Test since 2019 due to the Covid pandemic.
TRC Round #4
— TheRugbyChampionship (@SanzarTRC) August 31, 2022
Looks like closest tournament for many years with Springboks and All Blacks out for revenge following last weeks' losses...#AUSvRSA#NZLvARGhttps://t.co/Azg1DyMeat pic.twitter.com/ufnXbgYBjQ
Now they’re back up and running and building real momentum under Cheika, the early highlight being last weekend’s stunning win over the All Blacks, their first ever victory in New Zealand. The result was no flash in the pan. In round two, Argentina recorded their biggest-ever win over Australia as they thrashed the Wallabies 48-17 in San Juan, their new-look attack – which is being led by former Leinster backs coach Felipe Contepomi – clicking into gear and swooping for seven tries.
And while it was their attack that shone against the Wallabies, it was the Pumas’ defence which really stood out against New Zealand. So many of the best Argentina performances have been built on workrate and emotion, but in Christchurch that was backboned by an impressive sense of discipline and understanding without the ball. Cheika’s side only missed eight tackles in that historic win, making 195 of their 203 attempted tackles, a 96% success rate.
While Argentina will be keen to build on their early momentum in this tournament, they’ve already done enough to suggest they are building in the right direction ahead of next year’s World Cup. The manner of the wins against Australia and New Zealand will ensure that if the players hadn’t yet fully bought into Cheika’s methods, they certainly will now.
After a worrying two years for Argentina rugby, Pumas fans can rightly feel positive about the future again.
Australia
Blowing hot and cold in this championship, this weekend is a big one for Dave Rennie’s Wallabies. The enjoyed a solid win away to the Pumas in round one, only to desperately underperform in the second Test against the same opposition, then stun the Springboks in Adelaide over the weekend.
Consistency has long been a problem for Australia – they’ve recorded back-to-back wins only once under Rennie – so it will be fascinating to see how they turn up in this weekend’s rematch with South Africa. The visitors weren’t too happy with how Australia pushed the boundaries last weekend, but the Wallabies also brought plenty of fight to the table, scrummaging well against a powerful Springbok pack and producing a superb defensive effort before half-time.
Marika Koroibete’s try-saving tackle on Makazole Mapimpi may have split opinion, but Rennie will have loved his desire to cover a huge amount of ground and make the hit. It was the type of play that energises a team.
They looked like a side on a mission. Having lost the first 25 minutes of their last five games, Australia were more disciplined and controlled in Adelaide, taking a 10-0 lead and keeping the Boks at bay for 70 minutes, before slipping off the pace in the last 10.
The Wallabies have had to contend with their own mini-injury crisis but fresh faces have stood up and made an impact. With captain Michael Hooper admirably taking a step back from action to concentrate on his mental wellbeing, 23-year-old Fraser McReight crossed for two tries against South Africa to cap a brilliant all-action performance.
The Boks will surely lift their own levels this weekend but as the Wallabies look a little further down the line at back-to-back dates with a struggling All Blacks squad, they can realistically look to land a first Bledisloe Cup success since 2002. A year out from the World Cup, that would be a major boost for a nation who have too often underachieved at Test level.
South Africa
At the halfway point, the picture is not a pretty one for the Springboks, who sit bottom of the table after following up a round one win over the All Blacks with back-to-back defeats against New Zealand and Australia.
Last weekend’s loss in Adelaide had alarm bells ringing in South Africa as the Boks delivered another disjointed, lacklustre performance, displaying issues that have cropped up repeatedly this year. For the third time this season, they let the opposition take the initiative and fell 10-0 behind. Their attack lacked cohesion and their maul – so often such a reliable weapon – struggled to get going, with no evident back-up plan in place. The final 25-17 scoreline was kind on the visitors, as Kwagga Smith crossed for two tries in the final five minutes.
This weekend it’s Australia again, and the Boks’ record against the Wallabies away from home is poor, having last won on Australian soil in 2013. Jacques Nienaber needs to see a response from his side, who have already lost three of their six Test outings this year. With six of their seven remaining 2022 Test fixtures away from home, it could be a difficult few months ahead.
One major factor has been a heavily-depleted squad. Nienaber has made eight changes to his team for this weekend’s game in Sydney, four of which are injury enforced – with Handre Pollard and the influential Lukhanyo Am joining the likes of Pieter-Steph du Toit and Elton Jantjies on the sidelines.
A difficult year has heaped pressure on Nienaber, whose win ratio as Boks’ head coach currently stands at just 58%. His selection policy – and in particularly, his penchant of opting for senior, more established players over younger, emerging talents – has also come under increased scrutiny.
The Boks have the tools to turn all this around, of course, but it is an interesting time for the reigning world champions. As South Africa Rugby align themselves more closely with the northern hemisphere calendar – their top club sides joining the United Rugby Championship and Champions Cup – while continuing to compete in the southern hemisphere’s showpiece Test rugby tournament, there are growing concerns about the demands now being placed on their top stars, who find themselves locked into a packed 12-month calendar. Rumours of South Africa joining the Six Nations still persist, with recent reports suggesting the move could happen in 2025.
There are some positives that Nienaber and Co can lean on. When their key men are fit and firing, South Africa still boast a supremely strong squad, and in Canan Moodie, they have one of the most exciting young prospects around. The 19-year-old winger is set for his first Test start this weekend and should add some cutting edge to a Boks’ attack which has looked a little blunt recently.
New Zealand
As close to full-blown crisis mode as they get. There were cracks in the All Black armour last season, but this year they have plunged to a whole new low.
It started with a first ever home defeat to Ireland in July, which led to Ireland’s first series win in New Zealand. With the pressure mounting on Ian Foster and his coaching team, assistants John Plumtree and Brad Mooar were sent packing. Joe Schmidt – brought on board as an independent selector – has since been promoted to attack coach, with ex-Crusaders man Jason Ryan brought in as forwards coach. The pair’s influence will surely grow in the coming months, but for now there remain serious questions around the most fragile looking All Blacks side in an age.
Their Rugby Championship got off to a disappointing start, losing 26-10 away to the Springboks on the opening weekend, but Foster’s side responded with an encouraging 12-point win in Johannesburg. However any feel-good factor was quickly squashed by that first-ever home loss to Argentina last weekend.
That result sent the All Blacks back to fifth in the world rankings – their lowest ever ranking, the drop a consequence of winning just two of their last eight Tests.
Their issues are many and varied. Foster doesn’t have the quality and depth available to previous New Zealand coaches, and as a result, doesn’t appear to know his best team. His captain, Sam Cane, has been struggling for form and taking plenty of flak from the New Zealand media.
Their discipline has also been a real problem. We saw it in the series against Ireland, where they offered Andy Farrell’s side too many easy ‘ins’ into games, and it’s carried into the Rugby Championship. Against Argentina New Zealand conceded 14 penalties, and while they actually outscored the Pumas 2-1 in terms of tries, they watched Argentina winger Emiliano Boffelli land six penalties. That tendency to offer up cheap three-pointers is a killer – New Zealand’s record of five tries conceded is actually the lowest in the competition.
Most alarmingly, the basics of the game are letting them down. Always capable of ripping a team apart during unstructured play, New Zealand’s attack has looked rudderless when trying to break down well-drilled defences. They’ve allowed handling errors increasingly creep into their game and have cracked in pressure moments – losing three lineouts in the last quarter against Argentina.
On the back of one of the worst results in New Zealand’s history, the weeks and months ahead will make for interesting viewing, and the fear for Foster is that there is still room to plunge further into the black. After this weekend’s rematch with the Pumas in Hamilton, the All Blacks will turn their attentions to the Bledisloe Cup, a trophy Australia last won in 2002. The way things currently stand, another long-standing New Zealand record could be under real threat.
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