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Dublin: 9 °C Thursday 25 April, 2019

Here's what Leicester now need to guarantee a first-ever Premier League triumph

We look at all the possible permutations as the title race approaches its climax.

Three wins from their remaining four games will guarantee Leicester the Premier League title.
Three wins from their remaining four games will guarantee Leicester the Premier League title.
Image: Mike Egerton

THERE WAS NO shortage of drama in the Premier League on Sunday.

Leicester’s 2-2 draw with West Ham gave Tottenham renewed hope of an unlikely title triumph, while Arsenal’s aspirations of remaining in contention all but ended after they could only draw 1-1 at home to Crystal Palace.

All eyes will be on Tottenham on Monday night as they travel to face Stoke, knowing that victory would close the gap at the top to five points.

So with all that in mind, here’s how the top of the table looks currently…


Leicester have the following fixtures remaining: Swansea home (24 April), Man United away (1 May), Everton home (7 May), Chelsea away (15 May).

Meanwhile, Tottenham’s run-in is as follows: Stoke away (18 April), West Brom home (25 April), Chelsea away (2 May), Southampton home (8 May), Newcastle away (15 May).

What do Leicester need to do to guarantee themselves the title?

Put simply, Tottenham can finish on a maximum of 80 points. Consequently, Leicester need at least three wins out of four remaining fixtures (which would take them to 82 points), or two wins and two draws (which would take them to 81 points) to be absolutely sure of lifting the title.

Two wins, a loss and a draw would mean the Foxes could still be pipped to the title on goal difference — Tottenham are currently on +35, compared with Leicester’s +26. However, Spurs may well drop points in at least one of their remaining five matches, in which case, 80 points would be good enough for Leicester.

How many points do Spurs need to put themselves in contention?

To put into perspective the considerable gap that continues to exist at the top between the sides, Leicester could conceivably lose all their remaining games and still be in with a decent chance of lifting the title. Assuming Arsenal and Man City lose at least one of their remaining five games, Spurs need to win at least three of their last five matches to have any hope of triumphing.

Is there any hope for Arsenal and City?

Officially, yes. Realistically, no. Putting aside Tottenham-related permutations for a moment, Leicester now only need one more win to officially end both Arsenal and Man City’s title hopes.

Similarly, Arsenal and City need to win at least four out of five remaining games to have any hope of staying alive in the title race, and must at least draw their other game to have a chance of winning on goal difference.

What sort of a position would four wins and a draw leave Spurs in?

Not a great one. It would mean they finish on 78 points. Leicester can attain 79 points by winning just two of their remaining four fixtures (or winning one and drawing three). Given that they still have Everton and Swansea to play at home, it would be a major surprise if they do not reach this tally at a minimum, while Chelsea don’t look in the best of shape judging by their performance at home to City on Saturday, and Man United also showed how brittle they can be in their recent defeat away to Spurs.

Similarly, four wins and a loss for Spurs would leave Leicester needing at least two wins, or just a win and a draw if their goal difference is superior (though the latter scenario almost definitely won’t happen, as Tottenham look virtually certain to finish with a better goal difference at this stage).

And finally, here’s a brief summary of all the ways Tottenham can secure an improbable title triumph (assuming Spurs also finish with a superior goal difference to Leicester).

  • 3/5 wins if Leicester pick up 1 point or less.
  • 3 wins and a draw if Leicester pick up 2 points.
  • 4 wins if Leicester pick up 3 or 4 points.
  • 4 wins and a draw if Leicester pick up 5 points.
  • 5 wins if Leicester pick up 6/7 points.

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About the author:

Paul Fennessy

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