1. A case for the defence
THE MAYO DEFENCE has been the subject of much analysis and debate since Stephen Rochford took the hotseat. The Westerners have recognised the fact that the concession of goals has ended their interests in the championship every year since 2011.
To shore things up, Rochford will likely put Kevin McLoughlin back in the sweeper role tomorrow. Keeping a clean sheet is paramount to Mayo’s chances of victory, but they’ll also have to avoid conceding cheap frees inside the 45, with Dean Rock (92 percent success rate) in stunning form from placed balls.
Dublin have scored an average of 22.6 points per game in the championship, but if Mayo can keep them to around 0-16, they’ll give themselves an excellent chance.
2. Key match-ups
Getting your match-ups right has become a key component of the modern game. It all adds to the intrigue of tomorrow’s game, although we can already guess a few duals that will take place.
Lee Keegan will look to quieten Diarmuid Connolly once again, while Diarmuid O’Connor willtrack James McCarthy’s runs forward, and vice-versa. Elsewhere we’ll likely see Keith Higgins on Kevin McManamon, Bernard Harrison picking up Bernard Brogan, while Philly McMahon will take Aidan O’Shea when he operates close to the Dublin goal.
Johnny Cooper is suited to marking Andy Moran, leaving Davy Byrne to pick up Cillian O’Connor, who didn’t score from play in the semi-final.
Stephen Rochford has been very successful at setting up his team in accordance with the opposition so far. Curtailing Dublin’s attacking juggernaut will require him to get the match-ups spot on tomorrow.
3. Mayo’s running game is vital
Mayo are the one team in the country who can match Dublin athletically. With Cian O’Sullivan sweeping in front of his full-back line, it will cut out the option of Mayo playing long diagonal ball into Moran and O’Connor.
That means Mayo’s plan of attack is to run at the Dublin defence. With Lee Keegan, Colm Boyle, Keith Higgin, Kevin McLoughlin and Donal Vaughan all extremely effective at breaking the line at pace, the Connacht side can cause Dublin serious difficulties this way.
Running at Dublin will draw frees. Mayo scored 1-14 from placed balls over 140 minutes in the 2015 semi-finals. This is Mayo’s best chance of hurting the champions.
4. Tactical nuances
Kerry provided the template with a way to ensure Stephen Cluxton didn’t have it all his own way from his kick-outs. They pushed up two banks of four players marking zonally, forcing Dublin to go long on a number of occasions.
The key thing to remember here is that Kerry only pushed up on the kick-out when they had a close-range free, or when there was a stoppage in play after the goal (Darran O’Sullivan’s injury). Cluxton usually has the ball back in play six seconds after it goes dead, so it’s impossible for Mayo to regroup and take position every time. They need to pick their moments.
Elsewhere, Aidan O’Shea will spend most of his time at centre-forward and Rochford needs to pick his moments for sending the Breaffy man to the edge of the square. When he does go in there, Mayo have to get quality ball into his hands, with runners breaking off him.
Mayo will look to occupy Cian O’Sullivan, but he’s a master at leaving himself free in front of the full-back.
5. What do Mayo need to do to win?
By now, we know what to expect from Jim Gavin’s team. They’ll look to go for the jugular early on and raise doubts in Mayo minds about their habits of losing All-Ireland finals.
Mayo are more of an unknown quantity, given their patchy form to this point. There’s a level of performance in them that they haven’t been required to hit yet this year. This is the time to unleash hell.
It will take a performance of the ages for them to get over the line tomorrow. Rochford needs to be bold and brave, as do his players. But they’ve proved this year they’re prepared to win ugly.
To avoid this game taking the predictable route of Dublin pulling away in the final quarter, Mayo will have to think outside the box.
Sports psychologist Enda McNulty put it best when he spoke to Newstalk’s Rewind Podcast last Monday.
“Mayo are going to have to challenge Dublin in a different way,” the All-Ireland winner with Armagh said.
“[By] bringing a new attacking angle. Bringing a new dimension to their game that Dublin don’t expect. But not bringing it in the first five minutes and then Dublin go and change around their defensive set-up.
“Bringing a different surprise almost every ten minutes. That’s what the great teams are able to do. The average teams bring one surprise. They best coaches and teams can bring four surprises in the first-half and bring four surprises in the second-half.”
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