Ranking the 10 teams most likely to win this season's Champions League

The league phase for the 2026-27 campaign gets underway tonight.

10. Atlético Madrid

ipa88228390-julian-alvarez-of-atletico-de-madrid-leaves-the-pitch-after-the-match-as-his-own-fans-boo-him-over-his-desire-to-leave-the-club-during-the-transfer-window-after-the-spanish-championship Julian Alvarez of Atletico de Madrid leaves the pitch after the match as his own fans boo him over his desire to leave the club. Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo

Always seem to be around at the business end of the competition. Diego Simeone’s side have made the Champions League knockout stages in 11 of the past 13 seasons.

The La Liga outfit have never won the trophy, but have been runners-up twice. Last season, they narrowly lost their semi-final 2-1 on aggregate.

How far they go this season could depend on their star man, Julián Álvarez. The Argentina international was the subject of intense transfer speculation this summer and at one stage looked like he might be joining either Arsenal or Barcelona.

It didn’t materialise, but if he can maintain the form and attitude that has seen him score 49 goals in 108 appearances since joining from Man City for €95 million in the summer of 2024, then Atlético might have an outside chance of making up for previous near misses.

9. Inter Milan

file-inter-milan-players-celebrate-with-the-italian-serie-a-soccer-championship-trophy-at-the-end-of-their-final-round-match-against-hellas-verona-in-milan-italy-sunday-may-17-2026-ap-photolu Inter Milan players celebrate with the Italian Serie A soccer championship trophy. Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo

Won Serie A by an 11-point margin last season, but it’s well documented that Italian football is a diminished force, so not too much will be expected from their clubs in Europe this season.

Still, Inter look the best placed of the sides to challenge and have managed a successful rebuild since an ageing side were beaten 5-0 by PSG in the final the season before last. Just four of the XI who started that game played from the outset in their 3-2 defeat of Napoli at the weekend. 

Manuel Akanji, Alessandro Bastoni, Federico Dimarco, Hakan Çalhanoğlu and Lautaro Martínez were among the standout performers in their title-winning team last season.

The arrival of English trio John Stones, Djed Spence and Curtis Jones has bolstered their squad, while they also re-signed Aleksandar Stanković (son of former Inter star Dejan) for €23 million, having only sold him to Club Brugge last summer.

8. Man United

hill-dickinson-stadium-liverpool-uk-6th-sep-2026-premier-league-football-everton-versus-manchester-united-bruno-fernandes-of-manchester-united-credit-action-plus-sportsalamy-live-news Bruno Fernandes won the PFA Player of the Year award for his performances last season. Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo

Man United may have had an unconvincing start to the Premier League season, but their place on this list is a reflection of the relative weakness of the Champions League – consider how Tottenham finished 17th and were almost relegated from the top flight last season, while also finishing fourth in the league phase and reaching the round of 16.

Whether they have the squad depth and particularly the defensive cover to go deep in the competition looks doubtful.

But players like Bruno Fernandes, Lisandro Martínez, Matheus Cunha, Bryan Mbeumo, Youri Tielemans, Kobbie Mainoo and Benjamin Šeško would be good enough to get into most sides in Europe.

7. Liverpool

liverpools-alexander-isak-right-celebrates-with-liverpools-virgil-van-dijk-after-scoring-during-the-english-premier-league-soccer-match-between-ipswich-town-and-liverpool-in-ipswich-england-frid Liverpool's Alexander Isak, right, celebrates with Liverpool's Virgil van Dijk after scoring against Ipswich. Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo

One of the hardest teams to predict. Arne Slot came under heavy criticism for his management style last season.

However, at times, it felt like the Dutch manager was a convenient scapegoat for an ambitious and lavish transfer policy that failed to pay immediate dividends.

There have been some early promising signs that Andoni Iraola could get the best out of previously underperforming players like Alexander Isak, Cody Gakpo and Florian Wirtz. 

Víctor Muñoz and Bradley Barcola look like promising additions.

And while their squad balance is imperfect (right-back looks a potentially problematic area), if the fitness of stalwarts including Alisson Becker, Virgil van Dijk and Dominik Szoboszlai holds up, then the Reds appear to have the basis of an excellent side. 

6. Man City

enzo-fernandez-of-manchester-city-in-the-pregame-warmup-session-during-the-premier-league-match-manchester-city-vs-coventry-city-at-etihad-stadium-manchester-united-kingdom-on-05-september-2026ph Enzo Fernández was one of many big-money signings made by Man City this summer. Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo

The comprehensive 3-0 Community Shield defeat to Arsenal caused alarm in some quarters. 

Yet City’s improved form since then and 100% start to the Premier League season is a reminder that English football’s curtain raiser is little more than a glorified friendly.

Even in their inconsistent state last season, you could make the case they had the best defender (Rúben Dias), midfielder (Rodri), striker (Erling Haaland) and manager (Pep Guardiola) of the last few seasons.

How the eight-time Premier League winners replace two of those who have since left will be key to how they fare this year. 

Enzo Maresca did well at Leicester City, while his spell at Chelsea was mixed, so he has plenty to prove before he can earn genuine comparisons to Guardiola.

Similarly, Rodri’s departure is expected to have a big impact.

Of the five high-profile signings the Etihad outfit recruited this summer, three are central midfielders. Elliot Anderson, Enzo Fernández and Ayyoub Bouaddi were bought for a combined £322.4 million (€375.35 million), and the former two started against Coventry at the weekend, though the 18-year-old Morocco international feels like the most direct replacement for Rodri. 

The gifted teenager will undoubtedly need time to adapt, as will this much-changed City team in general, so whether they can seriously challenge for the Champions League, which they won for the first and only time in 2023, looks uncertain.

5. Real Madrid

real-madrids-head-coach-jose-mourinho-talks-with-players-during-the-spanish-la-liga-soccer-match-between-real-betis-and-real-madrid-in-seville-spain-friday-sept-4-2026-ap-photojose-breton Real Madrid's head coach Jose Mourinho talks with players. Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo

A team that could just as easily flop or triumph. They have had a rocky start under José Mourinho and were exposed last Friday night by Troy Parrott’s Real Betis.

Yet there have been plenty of other seasons where life at Madrid has appeared turbulent, yet they remain by far the most dominant side in the competition.

Of their 15 wins, eight have been since the turn of the century and five in the last 10 years.

Whether the experienced Portuguese coach is still capable of thriving at elite level remains to be seen, but their team could be mistaken for a world XI.

Consider last week’s starting team: Thibaut Courtois, Dean Huijsen, Ibrahima Konaté, Denzel Dumfries, Marc Cucurella, Federico Valverde, Eduardo Camavinga, Jude Bellingham, Arda Güler, Vinícius Júnior and Kylian Mbappé.

And that’s without the likes of Trent Alexander-Arnold, Yan Diomande, Antonio Rüdiger, Brahim Díaz, Bernardo Silva, Aurélien Tchouaméni, Endrick and Rodrygo.

So talent is certainly not the issue, as this embarrassment of riches illustrates.

But Madrid has long been perceived as one of the most combustible environments in football, and whether an equally difficult character like Mourinho can effectively traverse this sensitive terrain will be key to their hopes.

4. Barcelona

valencia-spain-6th-sep-2026-barcelonas-lamine-yamal-celebrates-a-goal-during-the-spanish-la-liga-football-match-between-valencia-cf-and-fc-barcelona-in-valencia-spain-sept-6-2026-credit-str Lamine Yamal is among Barcelona's most electric talents. Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo

Hansi Flick’s side have long been considered one of the most exciting teams in Europe, with the exceptional likes of Lamine Yamal, Fermín López and Raphinha to choose from.

Robert Lewandowski, who departed for Chicago Fire in the summer, will be a loss.

But they added attacking reinforcements, with the arrivals of Anthony Gordon and Gabriel Jesus, as well as promising German international Karim Adeyemi, who joined in a €29 million deal from Borussia Dortmund.

But it is at the other end of the field, where the biggest question marks lie.

Despite possessing Pau Cubarsí, arguably the standout centre-back at this summer’s World Cup, they often let themselves down defensively on the biggest occasions. 

Cubarsí was sent off as they crashed out of the Champions League following a 3-2 aggregate loss to Atlético Madrid last season. 

Although the teenager’s increased experience garnered since then should help, as will the €75 million signing of Rodri, who was deservedly named player of the tournament as he looked back to his best at the World Cup this summer, after recovering from a long-term injury.

3. Bayern Munich

harry-kane-fc-bayern-muenchen-9-am-ball-ger-vfl-osnabruck-vs-fc-bayern-munchen-dfb-pokal-1-runde-saison-2026-27-bremer-brucke-osnabruck-02-09-2026dfl-regulations-prohibit-any-use-of-ph Harry Kane scored 61 goals in all competitions for Bayern last season. Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo

Bayern were involved in the match of the season last year.

A breathtaking 5-4 loss to PSG in the semi-final first leg attained instant classic status, even if it was followed by a less memorable 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture.

It was no coincidence that this match involved two teams able to dominate their respective domestic competitions.

The stakes tend to be quite low away from the Champions League, so unlike the English teams, they have the luxury of regularly resting stars over during the campaign.

Their two most impressive players are Harry Kane and Michael Olise, both of whom had good World Cups and look like potential Ballon D’Or winners.

Unlike many of their European rivals, Bayern didn’t make drastic changes to their squad after winning last year’s Bundesliga by a 16-point margin.

But Morocco international attacking midfielder Ismael Saibari (signed from PSV) and left-back Nathaniel Brown (brought in for €55 million from Eintracht Frankfurt) both could make a big impact.

2. Arsenal

arsenals-bruno-guimaraes-during-the-premier-league-match-at-villa-park-birmingham-picture-date-monday-august-31-2026 Bruno Guimaraes was one of Arsenal's high-profile summer signings. Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo

Mikel Arteta’s side look like a well-oiled machine at this point.

They are comfortably the most stable of the teams challenging for the Premier League. And they have made progress in each of the last few seasons in Europe.

Often criticised for lacking a world-class individual attacker, the system is the true star as it is hard to think of a better organised or more tactically adept side in world football than the Gunners.

In the last four seasons, in chronological order, they have reached the Champions League round of 16, quarter-finals, semi-finals and final.

So the North Londoners have a core of a top side with substantial experience at this level.

The signings of Bruno Guimarães, Christos Tzolis, Piero Hincapié and Ezri Konsa for a combined £198.5 million (€231.1 million) should push them further in the right direction.

The one doubt is whether they are slightly short in attack. The departures of Leandro Trossard, Gabriel Jesus and Gabriel Martinelli have left them looking a little light on options in the final third; nonetheless, they have enough quality and versatility throughout the thoughtfully crafted squad to compensate for this minor flaw.

1. PSG

marquinhos-of-paris-saint-germain-fc-lifts-the-trophy-as-teammates-and-luis-enrique-head-coach-of-paris-saint-germain-fc-celebrate-during-the-award-ceremony-following-the-uefa-champions-league-2025 PSG players celebrate with the Champions League trophy. Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo

Only truly special teams can win three or more consecutive Champions Leagues/European Cups.

Only four teams in history have managed this feat: Real Madrid (1956-60), Ajax (1971-73), Bayern Munich (1974-76) and Real Madrid (2016-18).

PSG look capable of joining these illustrious ranks.

Even after back-to-back triumphs, Luis Enrique’s side are still a relatively young team.

Of their 24-man first-team squad, only four players are 30 or over.

Worryingly for their rivals, individuals such as Achraf Hakimi (27), Nuno Mendes (24), Vitinha (26), João Neves (21), Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (25) and Désiré Doué (21) have still not reached their footballing prime. 

Like Bayern and Arsenal, to a degree, they have made only slight tweaks to their squad.

The French champions have sold players who were on the periphery of the team - Gonçalo Ramos (€74 million), Lee Kang-in (€35 million), Randal Kolo Muani (€38 million), Bradley Barcola (€125 million) and Ibrahim Mbaye (€55 million).

While they have made some big-money signings, the new faces will add squad depth but won’t necessarily be automatic starters given the level of quality at their disposal.

It’s hard to imagine Maghnes Akliouche (€50 million from Monaco), Lucas Digne (€7 million from Aston Villa), Ferran Torres (€48.5 million from Barcelona) and Mika Godts (€45 million from Ajax) significantly improving an already formidable group.

With zero wins from three games, they have had a surprisingly slow start to the Ligue 1 campaign, but Enrique is unlikely to be too concerned, as his side normally come good when it matters.

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