THE FINAL COUNTDOWN to the Cheltenham Festival is well and truly on, and while we might not be heading to Venus, as the song goes, Prestbury Park feels suitably celestial at this time of year.
This year’s festival has fewer short-priced favourites than there has been in previous years. Only Altior is odds-on and Tiger Roll, Benie des Dieux, and Sir Erec are close to even-money shots. Otherwise, the remaining 24 races have a relatively open look about them.
While it’s fun stacking favourites into accumulators, backing one at a big price who nearly gets there, or just misses out, makes for a much better story.
Here are four chances at 16/1 and bigger who could make the frame next week.
Espoir D’allen (Champion Hurdle – Tuesday)
The Champion Hurdle on Tuesday is a brilliant renewal, with Buveur D’Air looking to make history by repeating the feat of triple winner Istabraq. The two outstanding mares, Apple’s Jade and Laurina, are also taking the brave route by ignoring the mares’ race and taking on the boys.
But it’s Espoir D’allen – a quietly campaigned horse for a quietly spoken trainer in Gavin Cromwell, and a 16/1 shot – who looks primed to pounce should anything go wrong with one of the big three.
Five-year-olds find it difficult to win Champion Hurdles but in the last decade, the likes of Celestial Halo, Binocular, Zaynar, Countrywide Flame and Footpad all finished in the first four places at that age. Espoir D’allen could add his name to that list, especially if more rain falls.
Bacardys (Stayers’ Hurdle – Thursday)
The Stayers’ Hurdle market on Thursday is dominated, quite rightly by Paisley Park. Beyond him though, the market looks weak and is full of horses who are unlikely to run. Faugheen coming back to his best would bring the house down and his win at Punchestown last year is an outstanding piece of form; however, his form either side of that is uninspiring.
A horse that could make the frame at a price is Bacardys. Like many staying hurdlers, he is here due to steeplechasing inadequacy, but he is a dual Grade One winner and if he is ridden for second, instead of taking on Paisley Park up front, he could pick up place money at 20/1.
Coney Island (Ryanair Chase – Thursday)
The Ryanair Chase is a muddling market with so many carrying multiple entries for this, the Champion Chase, and the Gold Cup.
One horse who has this as his intended target is Coney Island. He is trained by Eddie Harty, a man who has been successful at Cheltenham in the past with the likes of Captain Cee Bee, and who holds this horse in the highest regard.
Coney Island’s novice form is outstanding, beating Anibale Fly and finishing second to Our Duke. He didn’t quite stay the trip behind Kemboy at Christmas, so drops back in trip.
He is a talented horse who is still only eight and could outrun his odds of 20/1.
Shattered Love (Gold Cup – Friday)
The winner of this year’s Gold Cup will be a deserving champion given the obvious depth of the field. The first three home from last year’s race, the winner of the RSA, and the winners of the King George, Betfair Chase, Dublin Chase and the Unibet Gold Cup all line up in what will be a vintage renewal.
There will only be one mare in the field, Shattered Love, and like the two girls in the Champion Hurdle, will receive a seven-pound weight allowance for that. Given her size and scope she won’t look like she needs it.
She didn’t sparkle when last seen behind Kemboy at Leopardstown, but the ground was too fast for her that day. This race has been her target all year and given she is by super stayer Yeats, the step up to three and a quarter miles will suit.
The Gold Cup often doesn’t go to the best horse but the best stayer, and provided Shattered Lover doesn’t get taken off her feet by a potentially frantic early pace, she will stay all the way up the hill.
She looks a solid each way bet at 25/1.
– Odds correct at the time of publication.
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