JUST A WEEK to go now. Seven days before the Cheltenham roar goes up and they get under way in the curtain-raiser, the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.
At last year’s Cheltenham Festival, there were 28 races, 28 favourites, and 12 of them won – 11 and a half if you count the joint favourites as a half. Constitution Hill (joint), Edwardstone, Honeysuckle, Sir Gerhard, L’Homme Presse, Delta Work, Facile Vega, Allaho, Vauban, State Man, A Plus Tard and Billaway.
This year, there will be 28 races again, 28 favourites. Some of them will probably win and some of them will probably lose. Here are five of them.
Facile Vega (Supreme Novices’ Hurdle)
Facile Vega was unbeaten last season in bumpers. He ran in four races and he won all four, including the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham and the Champion Bumper at Punchestown.
Willie Mullins’ horse looked imperious too in winning his first two races over hurdles this season, his maiden at Fairyhouse in December and the Grade 1 Future Champions’ Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown’s Christmas Festival.
It was on the back of those two wins that he was sent off as a long odds-on favourite for the Grade 1 Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown’s Dublin Racing Festival in February, where he suffered the first defeat of his career.
There were excuses for him that day, he probably went too fast too early, and he was found to be lame the following day, but that defeat did lift his shroud of invincibility. It’s not easy, going into a Grade 1 contest at the Cheltenham Festival on the back of a defeat, and this looks like a deep Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, with Marine Nationale, High Definition and Facile Vega’s stable companion Il Etait Temps all worthy contenders.
Verdict: Vulnerable
Constitution Hill (Champion Hurdle)
Constitution Hill looked brilliant last season as a novice hurdler, and he looks even better this season in open company.
Nicky Henderson’s horse won the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle last season by 12 lengths, and he won the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham by 22. In so doing, he clocked a time that was almost six seconds faster than the time that Honeysuckle clocked in winning the Champion Hurdle over the same course and distance later in the day.
He has run twice this season, he won the Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle in November and he won the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton in December. He has now won his five hurdle races by an aggregate of 77 lengths.
The rating that Timeform awarded him after he won the Supreme was the highest rating that they had awarded any novice hurdler in the history of Timeform ratings, and only five two-mile hurdlers have ever gone higher. He is one of the most exciting racehorses in training.
Verdict: Rock solid
Gaillard Du Mesnil (National Hunt Chase)
Gaillard Du Mesnil still has the option of running in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase again this year, but it looks likely that he will run in the National Hunt Chase for amateur riders, and that Patrick Mullins will ride him.
He ran in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase last year, and he ran well in finishing third behind L’Homme Presse, who would have been high in the betting for the Gold Cup this year had injury not ruled him out. Gaillard Du Mesnil then ran a big race to finish third in the Irish Grand National on his final run last season.
He didn’t win over fences last season, so he is still a novice this term, and, a second-season novice, all that experience is a big asset to take back to Cheltenham.
A Grade 1 winning novice hurdler, the Saint Des Saints gelding bagged his Grade 1 win at Leopardstown over Christmas when he won the Neville Hotels Chase at Leopardstown, and he didn’t run badly last time in the Ladbrokes Novice Chase at the Dublin Racing Festival, against the high-class Mighty Potter and over an inadequate distance of two miles and five furlongs. He should appreciate the step back up in trip at Cheltenham.
Verdict: Rock solid
Energumene (Champion Chase)
Energumene is the reigning Champion Chaser, but it was a weakened Champion Chase that he won last year. Shishkin obviously didn’t run his race, and Chacun Pour Soi came down at the fifth last fence.
Of course, Energumene couldn’t have done much more than he did, he was impressive in winning and he is obviously a top-class two-mile chaser. Four for four as a novice chaser, his only defeat last season was in that memorable Clarence House Chase at Ascot, when he and Shishkin went toe-to-toe for the final mile and Energumene went down in the end by just a length.
Winner of the Hilly Way Chase again on his debut this season, the Denham Red gelding could only finish third last time in the Clarence House Chase, re-routed to Cheltenham, and that is not ideal. Also, while he won the Champion Chase at Punchestown last April on good to yielding ground, it is probable that he is at his best in softer conditions.
It did come up soft for the Champion Chase last year and, if the rains happened to come again this year, that would enhance his chance. But on normal Cheltenham good to soft ground, he may be vulnerable.
Verdict: Vulnerable
Shishkin (Ryanair Chase)
The jury was out on Shishkin when he could only finish third behind Edwardstone in the Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown on his debut this season. That was his first run since he was pulled up in the Champion Chase last March, and it looked like the Shishkin star was in the descendancy.
A wind operation and a tongue-tie and a step up in trip appeared to work the oracle however, because he was seriously impressive in winning the Ascot Chase last month. He seemed to be much happier travelling at two-mile-five-furlong pace than he had been travelling at two-mile pace. His jumping was superb and he came clear of two high-class chasers in Pic D’Orhy and Fakir D’Oudairies to win by 16 lengths.
Nicky Henderson didn’t even enter him in the Champion Chase this year, his only two options were the Ryanair Chase over two miles and four and a half furlongs, and the Gold Cup over and extended three and a quarter miles.
The Ryanair Chase is his likely target though and, a dual Cheltenham Festival winner, if he can reproduce the performance that he put up in the Ascot Chase, it will take a massive performance to beat him.
Verdict: Rock solid
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