FIRST OF ALL, let’s just steady on.
The draw for the group stages of Euro 2020 takes place in Bucharest tomorrow (Saturday) so the Republic of Ireland will know exactly who lies in wait next summer.
With two games guaranteed to take place in Aviva Stadium, there is the tantalising prospect of European football royalty coming to Dublin.
Or it could be Switzerland. Again.
All Mick McCarthy must do to ensure Ireland are invited to their own house party in Ballsbridge is inspire his side to victory away to Slovakia in the play-off semi-final in March… and then repeat the feat on enemy territory in a final against either Northern Ireland or Bosnia-Herzegovina.
So, yeah, steady on.
The path to get there is by no means straightforward but, amid all the intricacies and permutations of the inaugural Nations League and Euro qualifying campaign, all of a sudden things are very clear with the tournament itself less than a year away.
What group could Ireland be in?
Ireland are earmarked for Group E and, as one of the host cities, Dublin has been pre-paired with Bilbao. This means Spain, who have already qualified and are top seeds, lie in wait. Each host is guaranteed two home games, but as Spain qualified automatically, Sergio Ramos and friends would definitely welcome Ireland to Bilbao.
The second seeds
Unlike Group B, where Belgium, Russia and those pesky Danes have already been placed and are waiting to see if Finland or Wales join them as fourth seeds, there is still a full draw to be made in Group E.
World champions France would officially make this a Group of Death — although perhaps it will be revenge best served cold for the last 16 defeat at Euro 2016 — while beaten finalists Croatia are also in this section.
Poland, inspired by Robert Lewandowski, are joined by old foes Switzerland, who topped Ireland’s qualifying group.
The third seeds
Things don’t get any easier here. Nations League winners Portugal are the standouts of this tier, with the relentless Cristiano Ronaldo and majestic Bernardo Silva a frightening prospect.
Austria and Sweden are two foes who have recent history with Ireland – think back to that gruesome 2014 World Cup qualifying campaign under Giovanni Trapattoni – while Turkey and Czech Republic are both blasts from the past.
The play-off paths
Winner play-off Path A (Iceland, Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania)
Winner play-off Path B (Bosnia and Herzegovina, Slovakia, Republic of Ireland, Northern Ireland)
Winner play-off Path C (Scotland, Norway, Serbia, Israel)
Winner play-off Path D (Georgia, North Macedonia, Kosovo, Belarus)
How the groups are shaping up
Group A (hosts: Rome, Baku)
Italy
France/Poland/Switzerland/Croatia
Portugal/Turkey/Austria/Sweden/Czech Republic
Finland/Wales
Group B (Saint Petersburg, Copenhagen)
Belgium
Russia
Denmark
Finland/Wales
Group C (Amsterdam, Bucharest)
Ukraine
Netherlands
Portugal/Turkey/Austria/Sweden/Czech Republic
Winner play-off path A or D*
Group D (London, Glasgow)
England
France/Poland/Switzerland/Croatia
Portugal/Turkey/Austria/Sweden/Czech Republic
Winner play-off path C
Group E (Bilbao, Dublin)
Spain
France/Poland/Switzerland/Croatia
Portugal/Turkey/Austria/Sweden/Czech Republic
Winner play-off path B
Group F (Munich, Budapest)
Germany
France/Poland/Switzerland/Croatia
Portugal/Turkey/Austria/Sweden/Czech Republic
Winner play-off path A or D*
- Updated 8.49am
