IT WAS ALL so horribly repetitive. Just 68 seconds were on the clock when Antoine Dupont crossed for the opening try in Paris two weeks ago. Funnily enough that was also the precise time it took Hadleigh Parkes to collect Gareth Anscombe’s chip to score against Ireland in the final game of the 2019 Six Nations campaign.
Jonny May was comparatively sluggish when England came to the Aviva Stadium to kick that 2019 tournament off, waiting an entire 91 seconds to touch down in the corner. On it went. New Zealand were out of sight by the half-hour mark in the 2019 World Cup quarter-final.
Next to Paris, 2020. Dupont, again, got the game’s first try, taking just seven minutes to do so, the same length of time it took George Ford to breach the Irish defence at Twickenham earlier that year.
You could say so what? Teams score early; teams score late. That’s international rugby. Except at some point a trend becomes a problem and this is turning into one for Ireland. In seven of the nine meaningful defeats they have had since their golden year in 2018, they’ve conceded the first try and subsequently failed to chase the game down.
This may just be one of those statistical quirks you can take or leave. But one thing that cannot be ignored is the similarities between the France defeats in 2021 and 2020, the losses to England in 2020 and 2019, the World Cup quarter-final defeat to the All Blacks and this month’s defeat in Paris. Each time Ireland lost the collisions; each time they lost the game.
That is a grim reality facing Andy Farrell heading into next year’s World Cup. South African, French, English and All Black teams will always have bigger players than Ireland due to a mix of genetics and resources. Can anything be done to stop them? The42 asked a panel of experts to come up with the answers.
Eddie O’Sullivan (Ireland coach 2001-08): “If there is one thing that has transferred from the amateur era to the modern game, it is this: once you lose collisions, you lose the right to dictate the terms of a game. For example, if you lose a collision when you are in possession, the quality and speed of your ruck ball becomes slower. That’s physics. You don’t win fast rucks going backwards – and worse again, because it is a slow ruck, your attack gets bunched and the opposition’s defensive line has time to get organised.
“Similarly, if you lose the collision when you are defending, you can lose your defensive shape and eventually get outnumbered.
“Now, let’s add in the issue of Ireland going behind in key games, when that happens against a much more physical team, it is just much harder to chase a game than to defend a lead. It can be done but you have to be smart.”
Matt Williams (Former Leinster, Ulster and Scotland coach): “The good news is that Ireland have got smarter. For me, the big turning point for Andy Farrell was the England game last year. That was when they started to change.
“First, they attacked England at set-plays. The scrum just took off that day. Until then, Ireland’s scrummaging philosophy had been pretty passive. It was a case of ‘let’s not give away a penalty’. But in that game (scrum coach) John Fogarty got them to absolutely attack England. Some of the things they did were a little illegal but they got away with it. They ripped England up.
“Then, if you think to the Keith Earls try in that game, they attacked at the line-out in a clever manner, throwing long and then attacking the space that opened up. Next they started doing crossfield kicks via Johnny Sexton and won the air battle. Jack Conan’s try had its origins in Ireland’s kicking game. A lot of thinking went into that win. It shows a big, physical team can be outthought.
“Come November, there was another step forward. What we saw then wasn’t an evolution but a revolution. To Andy Farrell’s great credit, he had changed tactically. He is a smart dude and has been around plenty of major teams. He has seen that the way to beat the more physical sides is by buying into what New Zealand and Leinster do. It worked incredibly well against the All Blacks.”
But his strategy was less effective in Paris 15 days ago.
Eddie O’Sullivan: “At the moment we are probably competing at the peak of our physicality. We don’t have the population base of France or England; the Afrikaans and New Zealanders are just bigger people. So you have to box clever when you face those teams.
“It is like being a middleweight boxer up against a heavyweight. You don’t go toe to toe. You win by brain rather than brawn and this Ireland team has shown they can do that. They have the skill set to go around teams, to attack gaps, to retain possession. The difficulty is that when the opposition have the ball, your team has to put in a huge defensive shift.
“It can be done. A smart defence can make good reads. They can work in unison; two guys tackling a big guy will always have a chance of winning that collision. And look, it is not that hard to identify who the opposition ball carrier is, to put two people into that collision, thereby slowing the speed of their recycle ball. And the more time you gain by doing that, the better chance you have of putting two people in the contact zone again for the next phase. These big physical teams can be defeated…….. so long as you are smart.”
Trevor Ringland (Two-times Triple Crown winner with Ireland, British and Irish Lion): “I agree with Eddie. When you face teams like that, teams whose physicality makes it difficult for you to get the ball off them, it requires you to do something imaginative.
“And the way Ireland played against Wales, in round one of this tournament, showed their capacity to do that. The ball-handling that day was fantastic. Now I know Wales didn’t look good on the day but a better way of putting it was that they were made to look bad.
“So, for me, the way for Ireland to go is to stick to what they are doing, to hit space rather than bodies. That’s a more effective tactic than going through ruck after ruck, recycling slow ball, inching forward. Plus, from our perspective – from a fan’s eye – it’s way better to watch.”
Another aspect of Ireland’s game that fans have enjoyed watching has been their capacity to stay in the fight. Two weeks ago, they went 22-7 down early in the second half but rallied to get a losing bonus point. A year ago, against France, they trailed 15-3. It ended 15-13. England in 2020, France in 2020, also saw second-half charges while they nearly won the Welsh match last year despite playing with 14 men for the majority of it.
Trevor Ringland: “You have to look at those stats because stats provide the evidence of a team who is resilient. Against France, it was hard but they stuck at it and stuck at it – and that is a sign of a good side. They aren’t beaten easily.”
Eddie O’Sullivan: “What the game in Paris a couple of weeks ago proved was that Ireland are as good as France. If we were to play them again in a week or so, we could beat them. And they know that. I hate saying this – because it is so easy to be the expert after the game, the Monday morning quarterback as the Americans dub it – but if, for example, Joey Carbery had kicked to the corner rather than at the posts in the 73rd minute, we could have won the game. In France’s heads, they’ll know that. New Zealand too will know – after November – that Ireland can beat them.
“If we are to play either France or New Zealand in a World Cup quarter final, we have a chance of winning. We are in a place now where we are one of the best teams in the world and are capable of beating any other team on any given day.”
Matt Williams: “Something happened early in that game that is worth noting. When Jamison Gibson-Park kicked the ball out with his first clearance of the game, the entire Irish backline not only stopped chasing that kick when it went out; they turned around and ran backwards. Antoine Dupont looked up, saw the opportunity and went for it. That set the tone. Ireland’s mentality was to take France on at the set-play; France’s was to not allow Ireland do that.
“So, that first half, Ireland were rattled. They couldn’t get their game-plan off the ground. They fell behind. They fought back. They scored three tries to France’s two even though France dominated most of the stats. What does that tell you?
“It tells you they have the ability to compose themselves after a bad start and come back. In the big picture of where we’re going, hoping to win a World Cup quarter-final, last week’s performance was really encouraging. They’ve played against a team who tried to bash them up front. They stood up to it. Did they get a beating? Of course they did but they didn’t break. That’ll stand to them in next year’s World Cup.”
Today’s game in the Aviva won’t be as intense. Italy are poor and have been for the majority of their 22-year history in the Six Nations. Without a win in the tournament since 2015, there is plenty of speculation that their days are numbered, that South Africa will replace them at some stage in the future. Their supporters say they need time, that their improved underage structures will eventually yield results. So, what does our panel think? Should we keep them in or kick them out?
Eddie O’Sullivan: “Kick them out. They have to go. I am fed up with this idea that they need to be given a chance. They have been given a chance for 22 years now and their win ratio is 12 per cent. I have nothing against Italy but the problem is they are not good enough for the Six Nations and they skew the tournament. If you have to play Italy on a wet, miserable day when it is hard to score tries then you are at a disadvantage to your rivals in terms of building up your points’ differential. So take the romance out of it, it is not good for the tournament. The experiment is over.”
Trevor Ringland: “What I would do with Italy is a bit different. You look at their team, some really fine players form the core of it and then you look across Europe at teams like Georgia, Germany, Spain, Romania and Portugal. It makes you wonder where we could go if were able to combine the best from all those teams into one. In Tier 2 countries, you may have only a few players who are of a higher standard, high enough to compete at Tier 1 level, but if you put them all together, you would have a really competitive side.
“It would become more of an Italy select side than an Italian national team but if Italy could accept that decision – and to some extent they have moved towards the idea by getting Australian, New Zealand and Irish-born players into their team over the years – well, they’d be stronger.”
Matt Williams: “Ah, it is just plain wrong to get rid of Italy. Let’s stop it happening. Let’s put our Irish hat on here. If South Africa come into the Six Nations, we might very well be saying, we may not win this for 10 years. Yesterday it was eight degrees here. Imagine if the Springboks come into this competition. You will play them in Pretoria, at altitude, in 30 degree heat – in February! Good luck with that.
“If we’re doing this for money, well, let me tell you a story. I coached the Waratahs 25 years ago. We used to get 35,000 at our Super Rugby games. The Waratahs played the other night in front of 3,500. That’s what happens when you muck around with a competition’s structure.”
Eddie O’Sullivan: “People get upset about (the private equity firm) CVC’s investment in the Six Nations and the fact they want to make money out of it. But it’s a good thing they want to make money because if they do so, then the unions, including Ireland, will make money too. If the value of the Six Nations goes up with South Africa in it instead of Italy then all that money will drip down to the grass-roots. The women’s game will get more money; clubs like my local club, Monivea, will benefit. The notion that making money from rugby is not virtuous is nonsense. Why are we worried about the impact South Africa’s relocation from the Rugby Championship to the Six Nations will have on Australia or New Zealand? They never worried about us.”
Whatever about the future, what about the present? France, surely, will become the 2022 grand slam champions. It’s been written. Beating Ireland, that was it. Hand out the medals, present them with the trophy. After burying their Murrayfield hoodoo yesterday, what can go wrong? Well, Cardiff for a start; France have lost there on four of their last five visits. Okay, they clear that hurdle but coming down the tracks is England. The last four scorelines between those two have been England 23–20 France; England 22-19 France; France 24-17 England; England 44-8 France. But it’s over, right? Ireland have no chance of winning this year’s Championship. Yeah?
Trevor Ringland: “No, it’s still there for Ireland and England. This competition has always thrown up surprises.”
Matt Williams: “It is France’s to lose.”
Eddie O’Sullivan: “I’ve never seen France more stable in terms of their headspace. If they get England at home with the grand slam on the line, then I can’t see them being stopped. England are overrated for me; Marcus Smith is a talent but he is very immature in his game-management. I still think Owen Farrell is crucial to them. They miss him when he’s not there.”
It used to be said that Ireland missed Johnny Sexton whenever he wasn’t there. But Joey Carbery proved a point in Paris two weeks ago and retains his place today in a side that contains a debutant, Mike Lowry, and a couple of up-and-comers: Ryan Baird, Dan Sheehan.
Matt Williams: “Joey was the right call. I think it was a really good selection for this game. It was brave and it was the type of selection Ireland has missed out on doing in the past, one that was made with the World Cup in mind. Joey needs games, needs starts. My one concern is around Tadhg Furlong. What happens if he falls over? Finlay Bealham has only three starts, against Canada, USA and Japan. Tom O’Toole has two starts, USA and Japan. South Africa have two giant front rows and we play them in a World Cup pool game. We have to build depth at tighthead.”
Trevor Ringland: “If I was asked to pick my best ever Irish out-half, for sure there is Jack Kyle and Ollie Campbell but I think Johnny Sexton is right up there. He is a great leader on the pitch, not just in his captaincy role but as an individual. The question when you get to 36 is when do you stop? The answer is not to do with his age; it is to do with whether you are an exceptional player or not. Johnny is still great. But giving a younger player a run today won’t do anyone any harm, either.”
Eddie O’Sullivan: “There is no risk with Carbery today. Carbery needs exposure. He was very good in France, it wasn’t his fault that Ireland lost the game. Lowe, Henshaw, Baird, Sheehan – Hume on the bench – it is not as though any of those selections have made the team less potent. This is the first time in a long time an Irish coach has gone into a game with a bundle of options. No matter what team he picked, Andy Farrell knew he’d win by 30 points.”
- Matt Williams is a pundit with Virgin Media. You can watch Ireland versus Italy today on Virgin Media 1 from 2pm with a highlights package of the weekend’s Six Nations action on Virgin Media 2 at 7pm.