THE BORING NARRATIVE for this one between Leinster and Toulouse [KO 3pm, RTÉ/BT Sport] is that it could be decided by the bounce of the ball, one refereeing decision by Wayne Barnes, one slip, or one kick. This version of events would probably mean us witnessing one of the great Champions Cup epics in this semi-final.
The negative narrative from a Leinster point of view is that they’ve simply lost too much class in the injured Johnny Sexton, James Lowe, and Robbie Henshaw. Leinster have depth but those three are totemic figures in Leo Cullen’s team.
The positive narrative is that Leinster still have brilliant players throughout their team, including high-end replacements for the aforementioned players. Ross Byrne, Jordan Larmour, and Charlie Ngatai would start for most Champions Cup teams regardless of injuries.
Leinster’s team also includes a host of Grand Slam winners who are playing the rugby of their careers, such as captain James Ryan, outside centre Garry Ringrose, fullback Hugo Keenan, back row Caelan Doris, hooker Dan Sheehan, and others.
They have home advantage, one big reason they’re seven-point favourites with some bookies. Leinster have blitzed the Champions Cup so far this season. They hammered Toulouse at the Aviva Stadium in the semi-finals last year. Without the trophy since 2018, there is no shortage of motivation for Leinster. In fact, several of their young stars have yet to win a final in the blue jersey so they’re keen to put that right. Leinster’s cohesion is off the charts. They have a strong bench with the likes of Jason Jenkins and Ryan Baird ready to impact. The list goes on.
The Toulouse-centric narrative is that Ugo Mola’s side are primed to put things right after last season’s semi-final humbling in Dublin. That came a week after they went all the way through extra time to beat Munster in a penalty shoot-out. They looked tired against Leinster.
This time around, their frontliners were all rested for last weekend’s Top 14 clash against Stade Français. Toulouse arrived in Ireland nearly a week before this Leinster clash, which is highly unusual for a Champions Cup game and underlined their intent.
In truth, they’ve had this possible showdown circled on the calendar since earlier this year. Head coach Ugo Mola felt it was always going to end up with a repeat of last season’s semi. Remember too that Toulouse are the front-runners with five trophies in this competition. As well as looking to settle the score with Leinster for last season, they don’t want to see the Irish province pulling level with five stars on their jersey.
Let’s not forget the sheer quality of this Toulouse side either. They’re missing a few through injury too – Anthony Jelonch, Ange Capuozzo, Charlie Fa’amuina, Sofiane Guitoune, Josh Brennan, and Melvyn Jaminet - but possess some of the best in the game.
Antoine Dupont is simply sublime, Roman Ntamack is back to his best, Thomas Ramos has gone to another level, Emmanuel Meafou is a monster, hooker duo Peato Mauvaka and Julien Marchand are game-changers, and Jack Willis is part of a combative, mobile back row.
Who knows really? It’s not difficult to argue either side’s merits. There’s a hint of rain in the forecast for this afternoon at the time of writing, but here’s hoping it doesn’t materialise and we get both of these teams at the peak of their powers in dry conditions.
If that’s the case, strap yourselves in.
Leinster:
- 15. Hugo Keenan
- 14. Jordan Larmour
- 13. Garry Ringrose
- 12. Charlie Ngatai
- 11. Jimmy O’Brien
- 10. Ross Byrne
- 9. Jamison Gibson-Park
- 1. Andrew Porter
- 2. Dan Sheehan
- 3. Tadhg Furlong
- 4. Ross Molony
- 5. James Ryan (captain)
- 6. Caelan Doris
- 7. Josh van der Flier
- 8. Jack Conan
Replacements:
- 16. John McKee
- 17. Cian Healy
- 18. Michael Ala’alatoa
- 19. Jason Jenkins
- 20. Ryan Baird
- 21. Luke McGrath
- 22. Harry Byrne
- 23. Ciarán Frawley
Toulouse:
- 15. Thomas Ramos
- 14. Juan Cruz Mallía
- 13. Pierre-Louis Barassi
- 12. Pita Ahki
- 11. Matthis Lebel
- 10. Romain Ntamack
- 9. Antoine Dupont (captain)
- 1. Cyril Baille
- 2. Peato Mauvaka
- 3. Dorian Aldegheri
- 4. Richie Arnold
- 5. Emmanuel Meafou
- 6. Jack Willis
- 7. Thibaud Flament
- 8. Francois Cros
Replacements:
- 16. Julien Marchand
- 17. Rodrigue Neti
- 18. David Ainu’u
- 19. Alexandre Roumat
- 20. Rynhardt Elstadt
- 21. Alban Placines
- 22. Paul Graou
- 23. Arthur Retiere
Referee: Wayne Barnes [RFU].
