THE GRAND NATIONAL may not always appeal to the purists, but there’s no doubt that it is a unique spectacle.
The idiosyncratic fences and the sharp turns make life difficult for the horses, and that’s without even considering the marathon trip of four miles and four furlongs.
It is essential viewing for anyone with the slightest interest in racing, and indeed sport. The National is one of the most difficult betting mediums around though. Not only do you have to find a horse that jumps consistently and stays well, but then the animal has to run the gauntlet and avoid the fallers and stray horses that are part and parcel of the race.
As difficult as it is, we have to try to pick a winner. The day just wouldn’t be as special as it is without a bet or two, would it?
And…They’re Off!
It’s difficult to be bullish about the chances of any one horse, so we might as well allow the statistics to guide us. Last year’s winner Don’t Push It is the only horse in the past 10 years to have carried a burden of more than 11 stone, so it usually pays to have a look at those lower down in the handicap.
A likely winner will also have raced within the last 50 days; it’s been 28 years since this trend has been overcome. Interestingly, despite the fact that the race is often viewed as something of a lottery (the 2009 winner Mon Mome came home at 100/1 for instance), three-quarters of the last 20 winners were in the first eight in the betting.
Most recent winners had previous experience of Grand National races before, while half of the last 12 winners were Irish-trained. Bearing this in mind, Backstage and Bluesea Cracker boast excellent chances. The former is Irish-trained, has had some promising prep runs in the point-to-point field, and was running a promising race last year before being hampered by a faller.
Trainer Gordon Elliot knows what it takes to win this, having saddled Silver Birch to victory in 2007. This has clearly been his target for some time, and he seems to be quietly fancied by his connections at 14/1. Bluesea Cracker comes into this race after a few moderate runs, but the manner in which she took the Irish Grand National last year suggests that this even greater test of stamina will be right up her street. It’s noteworthy that only a few weeks ago the mare was bought by JP McManus, who will be keen to gain a second win in the race after breaking his duck last term.
She may not find the ground to her liking, but she fits a number of the trends and could be worth chancing at 25/1.
Nap of the Day
Finian’s Rainbow was impressive in the Arkle, but at such a short price he has to be taken on. His trainer Nicky Henderson has sent out fancied horses this week, and many have underperformed. If that trend continues in the Maghull Novices’ Chase happen then Ghizao could be the beneficiary.
Paul Nicholls’ charge travelled well for a long way in the Arkle, but tired slightly and made some serious jumping errors. Having been off the track for almost three months beforehand that’s understandable; and the run may have brought him on in terms of fitness. He looked a fine prospect in the winter months, and is held in some regard by his trainer who has spoken of him as a Champion Chase horse for next year. At 100/30 he is worth chancing.
Each-Way
There are plenty of long-priced horses with chances in the National, but my advice is not to back each-way. With most firms offering the first five at a quarter of the odds it doesn’t really make sense to double your stake when there are 40 runners. It makes more sense to simply back another horse. Outside of that, the penultimate race might be a good opportunity for Red Merlin. Conditional Henry Brooke has a good record for Donald McCain, and the horse has come into his own in the past month.
He was a smart flat performer so he could well prove up to his new mark at 8/1. In the John Smith’s Handicap Chase, Take the Breeze has been granted some relief by the handicapper. He enjoyed the course and distance last spring when finishing third in the novices’ Grade One, and with Ruby Walsh back on board 16/1 seems very generous. When ridden by Ruby his form reads 3118.
Thoughts for the Day
It has been an enjoyable meeting so far at Aintree, but it’s a pity that the racing calendar can’t be worked out a little better so that the best horses can travel to Cheltenham, Aintree and/or Punchestown with plenty of time to recover. There is great prize-money outside of Cheltenham; perhaps too much emphasis is placed on running there.
