JUST LIKE THERE’S never a bad time to do the right thing, there’s never the right time to admit you were wrong. It’s not fun owning up to fallibility but it’s also an important part of being a journalist, especially one whose job it is – at times – to express opinions.
Afterall, nobody wants to read article after article along the lines of “the NFL is unpredictable, anything can happen on any given Sunday, blah, blah, blah.”
That’s why, when writing something like my NFC preview back in September - a glorious time when the Raiders were still undefeated – I was comfortable expressing the following view on the Dallas Cowboys:
“When you lose the best player – Sean Lee – to injury from a defence that ranked worst in the NFL last year, it is never going to be easy to make up ground on your divisional rivals. While Tony Romo, Dez Bryant and DeMarco Murray should flourish under former Lions offensive coordinator Scott Linehan – and post big fantasy numbers – trying to win every game 47-42 is just not sustainable.”
After Dallas opened the season in typical Dallas style against the 49ers – Romo throwing three interceptions and Murray losing a fumble for a touchdown – I felt pretty comfortable with my prediction they’d go 8-8 and miss out on the playoffs for the fifth year in succession.
I wasn’t even that bothered when Murray ran for 169 yards on 29 rushing attempts against the Titans to give ‘America’s Team’ their first 2-1 start since 2010 though their time of possession, over 41 minutes, did stick out as impressive.
A fourth quarter capitulation by the Rams matched the Cowboys’ largest comeback win in their history but their performance was overshadowed by how poor St Louis were. Then though, the Cowboys started beating genuine play-off contenders.
First, Romo and that impressive offensive line managed to limit the damage JJ Watt and the Texans could inflict, eking out a three point win before they made a statement of intent with a seven point win over the reigning Super Bowl champions, the Seattle Seahawks.
In doing so they became the first team outside the NFC West to win in Seattle since 2011 and reached 5-1, giving them an 85% chance of reaching the postseason. Once more, the most important stat for the Cowboys was their time of possession, allowing the Seahawks just 22 minutes on offence.
Holding onto the football, and denying the opposition a chance to make plays, has been the Cowboy’s greatest offensive and defensive weapon this season. By increasing their time of possession from 29.01 to 34:35 this year they are effectively denying their opponents one scoring opportunity per game.
Given that they have won three of their six games by one score or less, their ability to hold onto the football is the reason they are 6-1 and not 3-4 as many – myself included – would have thought at this stage.
Many times over the past few days, I’ve heard and read people saying that the Dallas defence is better this year and that’s why they’re winning but, while there’s no denying that Rolando McClain is playing the best football of his career, the statistics don’t support an improvement.
As pointed out in this week’s preview, they are still giving up a hefty 6.1 yards per play (only the Falcons, Rams and Giants at 6.2 give up more) but – because they’re spending less time on the field – nobody gives up fewer first downs per game (17.4) than Dallas.
Now, while in this form, Dallas are up there with the Denver Broncos in terms of vying for status as the best team in the NFL, their entire season is based around keeping one player – DeMarco Murray – healthy.
How important is he? Well, the Cowboys have had 461 offensive plays this season and Murray has run with or caught the ball on more than 45% of them. His seven consecutive games to start the season with more than 100 rushing yards has never been seen before so we’ve no idea what this workload is doing on the body of a player that has yet to complete a full NFL season.
We do know that the last player to carry the ball more than 400 times – the Kansas City Chiefs’ Larry Johnson carried the ball 416 times in 2006 - only played eight games the following season. Jaamal Anderson ran it 410 times in 1998 and played only two games in 1999.
With Murray on course for more than 460 carries this year, the choice for Dallas seems to be either to keep riding him and hope nobody figures out a way to stuff the run in the postseason or get enough wins to reach the playoffs, take Murray out for a few games and hope the running back can click back into gear when it really counts.
Both are risky strategies and in an era when winning now is the only thing that counts, I know which the Cowboys will probably adapt.
Then again, I’ve been wrong before.
