THE USPGA CHAMPIONSHIP might well becoming the George Harrison of the four major championships: traditionally under-heralded and over-shadowed, but to which more and more people are turning and saying, You know what? In many ways, that is the best of them.
The competition moved from August to May in 2019 but has been serving up consistent drama prior to that. Brooks Koepka held off Tiger Woods in 2018, and then did likewise with Dustin Johnson to go back-to-back a year later. Collin Morikawa won in 2020 to introduce himself; Phil Mickelson won a year later to tell us he hadn’t gone away. And last year, Justin Thomas came from seven shots back to win in a playoff, the joint-biggest comeback victory in the competition’s history.
What drama awaits this week at Oak Hill?
Let’s start with Phil, who is turning up with more baggage than could be carried by any caddie. This is his first appearance at the USPGA since he won it in 2021, missing last year following his Saudis-are-scary-motherf*****s comments to Alan Shipnuck.
And while he went quiet for a while in the aftermath of that and returned to the Masters on his best-boy behaviour, Mickelson has been making noise ahead of the year’s second major.
The farrago rests on familiar terrain: the eligibility of LIV golfers to compete at the major championships. Phil criticised the CEO of the United States Golf Association, Mike Wahn, calling a tweak to US Open eligibility that excludes LIV’s Talor Gooch from the field a “dick move”, accusing the USGA of “collusion” with the PGA Tour in an attempt to lock out LIV.
Phil is also aggrieved that his LIV buddies Cameron Tringale, Sebastian Munoz and Jason Kokrak are not playing at Oak Hill this week, making the point in a now-deleted tweet replete with fresh collusion claims.
“PGA uses OWGR [Official World Golf Rankings] to get in,” he posted. “#103 Tringale #111 Munoz #110 Kokrak OUT. #128 [PGA Tour's Beau] Hossler IN. Colluding with [the] Tour against LIV. 3 years from now who is most likely to still be here? [PGA Tour commissioner, Jay] Monahan or LIV? We won’t forget. You too [Mike] Whan.”
It’s not technically correct to say the USPGA base their entry on World Ranking points: instead they use PGA Championship points – dollars earned on the PGA Tour in the last year – but their execution of their own criteria is murky and inconsistent. So while Mickelson may have a point in Tringale deserving a spot in what is a 156-person field, his LIV pal Paul Casey has been invited despite not qualifying under the criteria, the justification being he is “good for our event”, following top-five finishes in 2020 and 2021. This is hardly the stuff of an anti-LIV collusion.
Mickelson wasn’t always so attuned to the vagaries of eligibility and qualification for the tournament the last time it was held at Oak Hill. That was in 2013, when Mickelson was the Open champion. He decided not to practice on the course the day before competition started but ultimately had to dash to the course in shorts and flip-flops when he realised he had forgotten to register for the event. He went on to sneak inside the cut-line and he finished at 12-over, just the 22 shots off winner Jason Dufner.
Neither will Phil be rocking the flip-flops this time around, with the weather forecast to be cold and wet. (The 2023 tournament was award to the Rochester club before it was moved to May.)
Given the weather, a lengthened course may well play even longer. The set-up, with narrow fairways and penal rough, emphasises length and accuracy off the tee.
So at this point, enter Rory McIlroy. His wife is from Rochester and he is a member at Oak Hill, which he has described as “a second home.” Then again, home advantage didn’t count for much when it came to the 2019 Open in Portrush.
It is a contractual obligation to point out that McIlroy hasn’t won a major since 2014, and while he is too talented, too compelling and ultimately too famous to come into any tournament under the radar, he has been detatched from leading contenders Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler.
Before the Masters, there was a Big Three. For now, there’s a Big Two.
McIlroy’s wretched missed cut at the Masters was followed by his skipping the RBC Heritage, so the only event he has played since Augusta was the Wells Fargo at Quail Hollow, a friendly course on which he struggled to a tie for 47th place.
He is arriving out-of-sorts and undercooked, having played a single Sunday of tournament strokeplay in the last nine weeks. Perhaps this is the week he will reconnect with his own awesome talent – and the major after Masters meltdown was a roaring success in 2011 – but from this remove, the fruition of that prospect is an exercise in hope rather than expectation. Though McIlroy has been working in recent weeks to escape expectation.
“Less expectations”, he replied when asked what he has been working on. “Just sort of trying to be in a good spot with taking what comes and not thinking about things too much, not getting ahead of myself. Just trying to go out there, play a good first hole of the tournament, and then once I do that, try to play a good second hole and just sort of go from there.
“Like if I don’t win another tournament for the rest of my career, I still see my career as a success. I still stand up here as a successful person in my eyes. That’s what defines that.”
Rahm is the favourite to win this week and join McIlroy in needing one more major to complete the Grand Slam. He followed Augusta by finishing in the top 15 at Hilton Head, and then finished second to Tony Finau and ahead of a shallow field at the Mexico Open.
Scottie Scheffler is closest to Rahm in the betting, but his aura has recently been punctured by putting troubles that first reared their head at the Masters. Scheffler leads the PGA Tour in strokes gained tee-to-green, but is ranked 102nd in the same stats for putting.
Meanwhile, Shane Lowry bemoaned what he believed was a missed opportunity at the Masters, but his form has taken a downturn since, finishing in a tie for 67th at Hilton Head and then missing the cut at Quail Hollow.
The form Irish golfer going into the year’s second major, therefore, is Seamus Power. He has consecutive top-20s in his last two tournaments, finishing last weekend’s Byron Nelson with a sparkling 64. His recent two-part interview with the Sunday Independent told his story and, in doing so, accentuated an odd fact: here is an Irishman performing consistently in a world-class, global field with a curiously low profile back home. Contention this week at Oak Hill might iron out those contradictions.
Also in the field this week is Padraig Harrington, exempt as a past champion. Harrington’s chase of Steve Striker on the Champions Tour last weekend curdled on the final day, losing six shots on the leader across a mixed round.
Tiger Woods misses out through injury, but Jordan Spieth is in the field in spite of a wrist injury. This is the only of the Grand Slam quartet he has yet to collect.
Jason Day minted his upturn in form with victory last weekend, while consecutive top-25 finishes in his two events since missing the cut at the Masters suggests defending champion Justin Thomas is clambering out of his recent funk. Matt Fitzpatrick, Wyndham Clark, and Tony Finau are the other winners on tour since the Masters, while Xander Schauffele’s form suggests he may be timing a run at a first major title: he was top 10 at the Masters and has been in the top five of all three of the events he has played since.
Word on the ground is the course set-up is difficult and will play like a US Open. In that case, reigning US Open champ Fitzpatrick is enticingly priced at around 33/1.
Other contenders include Viktor Hovland, who has flitted around enough major leaderboards to suggest he can top one of them, and Patrick Cantlay, who has brought Tiger Woods’ caddie Joe LaCava on board since the Masters.
Brooks Koepka, meanwhile, is back at an event he has won twice already, and signalled his return by contending at the Masters, notwithstanding a soporific finish. He launched that bid off the back of a win on the LIV Tour.
If that pattern is to repeat itself, Dustin Johnson is the man to watch, as he won the LIV event in Tulsa last weekend.
ON TV: Sky Sports Golf, coverage begins at 1pm on Thursday and Friday; from 2pm on Saturday and Sunday
Selected tee times: (all times Irish; first/second round)
1.11pm/6.36pm: Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa
1.17pm/6.42pm: Kevin Kisner; Jimmy Walker, Padraig Harrington
1.22pm/6.47pm: Shane Lowry, Ireland, Jordan Spieth, Viktor Hovland
6.42pm/1.17pm: Sungjae Im, Chris Kirk, Seamus Power
Picks (all e/w)
- Patrick Cantlay 18/1
- Matt Fitzpatrick 33/1
- Keegan Bradley 80/1