THE WHEEL HAS turned since the late 1980s, that’s for sure.
The number of Irish-trained winners at the Cheltenham Festival slowed to a trickle back then. Famously, Galmoy was the only Irish-trained winner in 1987 and again in 1988, and, when John Mulhern’s horse’s bid for a hat-trick in the Stayers’ Hurdle was thwarted by Rustle at the 1989 Cheltenham Festival, there were no Irish-trained winners.
It’s different now, of course. Irish trainers as a collective are in the ascendancy. At every Cheltenham Festival for the last seven years, there have been more Irish-trained winners than British-trained winners.
The wheel will almost certainly turn again at some point in the near or not-so-near future but, for now, the metrics tell you that the relative strength in National Hunt racing is in Ireland.
So how many Irish-trained winners will there be at this year’s Cheltenham Festival?
Bookmakers’ odds on Ireland winning the Prestbury Cup (insofar as there is a Prestbury Cup) are in ‘unbackable’ territory, ranging from 1/12 to 1/25.
Some say 8/13 that Ireland will win it with a -9.5 handicap. There are 28 races at the Cheltenham Festival, so that’s 8/13 that there will be at least 19 Irish-trained winners. The spread firms are pitching the spread between just over 18 and just over 19.
Current odds about each horse can be a guide.
Taking the first race, for example, the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, and taking best odds available about each horse, you can work out the probability of the race being won by an Irish-trained horse.
Best price available about Facile Vega at present is 5/2, so that’s a probability of 29%. Best price available about Marine Nationale is 9/2, which equates to a probability of 18%.
Put them all together, round it up to eliminate the bookmaker’s margin, and, according to current odds, the probability of an Irish-trained horse winning the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle is around 79%, while the probability of a British-trained horse winning it is 21%.
Do that for all seven races on Tuesday. According to current odds, the probability of an Irish-trained horse winning the Arkle, in which Jonbon is the only British-trained contender priced at less than 66/1, is 66%, while the probability of an Irish-trained horse winning the Champion Hurdle, in which Constitution Hill is long odds-on, is 28%.
Of the seven races on Tuesday, according to current odds, in four of those races, the probability of an Irish-trained horse winning is greater than the probability of a British-trained horse winning and the converse is true in three of the races.
The expected value of Irish-trained winners on Tuesday is 3.86, while the expected value of British-trained winners is 3.14.
Run through the same process for all 28 races. It’s a painstaking process admittedly, but it can be quite revelatory.
The last three days of the Festival are a little trickier because we don’t have confirmed runners yet so some best-guesses are required.
With that caveat then, according to current odds, the expected number of Irish-trained winners on Wednesday is 4.45, while the expected number of British-trained winners is 2.55.
On Thursday, it’s 4.34 Ireland, 2.54 Britain, and 0.12 France, courtesy of Gold Tweet and Henri Le Farceur in the Stayers’ Hurdle.
On Friday, it’s 5.46 Ireland and 1.54 Britain.
Conclusions? According to current odds, you can expect 18.11 Irish-trained winners, 9.77 British-trained winners, and 0.12 French-trained winners, so the bookmakers may have pitched the number of Irish-trained winners a little high.
Odds of 8/13 about 19 or more offers poor value.
Interestingly, it looks like Tuesday is potentially the strongest day for British-trained horses, bolstered, obviously, by the monstrous presence of Constitution Hill in the Champion Hurdle.
Of the six races during the week in which, according to the market, there is more likely to be a British-trained winner than an Irish-trained winner, three of them will be run on the first day.
There is a chance that the British-trained horses will do well on Tuesday. If Constitution Hill wins, if Jonbon beats El Fabiolo, if Marie’s Rock repeats last year’s win the Mares’ Hurdle, if a British-trained horse wins the Ultima, in which they have five of the first six in the market.
It is not unreasonable to expect that there will be at least three British-trained winners on Tuesday. Last year, there were four. And remember, the expected value this year is 3.14.
If that does happen, it may be that the market will react. A belief that the British-trained horses as a collective have momentum may gain traction. Consequently, on Tuesday evening, there is a chance that the number of Irish-trained winners for the week will be under-rated.
Conversely, if there are, say, five Irish-trained winners on Tuesday, that would augur well for Irish-trained horses as a collective for the week. And a lot depends on the bounce of the ball. A short head here, an unlucky run there, a mistake at the final ditch. In that sense, it’s a short week. 28 races is not long enough to be the long run.
It’s some week though. Enjoy it all.
