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regression to the mean

After 62 years, we were probably due a tied Lions series

Here’s a very brief history of Lions Test draws after this morning gave us just the second ever shared series.

The two teams with the DHL NZ cup after the game Nobody lost, nobody's happy. Billy Stickland / INPHO Billy Stickland / INPHO / INPHO

IF YOU FELT the echoing booms of this morning’s trophy presentation fireworks in Auckland ring a little hollow or thought a damp squib may be more appropriate, it’s okay.

It just shows you’re probably under 50 years of age and unsure how to treat a Lions Test draw.

All of the players and many of the coaches are under that mark and so went wandering around Eden Park without any memories of a drawn Lions Test, let alone a series.

Today’s 15 – 15 draw in Auckland, after the sides took a win apiece from the first two Tests, has resulted in only the second ever drawn Lions series. It bridges a gap all the way back to 1955, when Ulster’s Robin Thompson captained a side that won two and lost two in a four Test tussle with the Springboks.

Rugby Union - British Lions Tour of South Africa - Lions Training 1955 Lions captain Robin Thompson. S&G and Barratts / EMPICS Sport S&G and Barratts / EMPICS Sport / EMPICS Sport

 

There were no draws in that series, but they were not an entirely uncommon sight in Lions Tests up until 1974. Before today, Willie John McBride’s all conquering Lions recorded the most recent draw for the four nation side, a 13 – 13 Jo’burg deadlock in the fourth and final ’74 Test after the tourists had already wrapped up the series with three earlier wins.

Willie John McBride 1974 Willie John McBride captained the last Lions team to draw a Test.

In all, there have been eight draws in the 129 years of Lions Test history. ’74 was in fact a third consecutive series to feature a draw after Tom Kiernan captained a team to draw the second Test in South Africa in 1968 and the 1971 tour to New Zealand ended in a 14 – 14 tie with the All Blacks.

Since that glut, however, there has been a regression to the mean in more recent times. Reducing series sizes from four (or more) Tests to three in 1989 drastically reduced the likelihood of a series tie, but a standalone draw was due after 62 years.


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