WHATEVER HAPPENS between now and the end of the season, there is a strong case to be made for Man City as the greatest Premier League team ever.
In the past two seasons, they have accumulated 100 and 98 points respectively.
In Premier League history, no other team has ever managed to do that. The famous ’99 treble-winning Man United side, for instance, finished the season with 79 points.
If City win every match between now and the end of the season, they will barely break their own record, finishing on 101 points, which only serves to further highlight the scope of their previous achievements.
However, with City currently third in the table and 11 points behind a Liverpool team that are 32 Premier League games unbeaten and have dropped points just once in their opening 15 matches, Pep Guardiola at this stage would certainly settle for a simple title win regardless of the circumstances.
They are preparing to host Man United in Saturday’s evening kick off, and ordinarily, it is a game you would expect them to win.
The most recent time the sides met, during the title run-in at Old Trafford last season, the fixture was cited by many pundits as a potential stumbling block for City as they attempted to retain the domestic trophy.
Yet the Liverpool fans watching on that night were left disappointed, as the visitors delivered a masterful, controlled performance in which victory rarely looked in doubt.
This time around, however, it would no surprise if City didn’t approach the encounter with such confidence.
Interestingly, United have tended to fare better against the league’s stronger sides this season. Of their five wins in 15 matches this season, three have come against Tottenham, Leicester and Chelsea. Since the beginning of the campaign, they are also the only team to avoid defeat in the top flight against Liverpool.
After the Spurs game, Jose Mourinho correctly observed: “I think the way they play it’s easier for them when they play against the teams that are better teams, teams that want more of the ball, teams that want to have the initiative of the game so I think they did well.”
The theme of United excelling against the stronger teams was also apparent last season. The most notable example is the Champions League win away to PSG, which effectively earned Ole Gunnar Solskjaer the job as permanent manager.
Lightning fast attackers like Marcus Rashford, Anthony Martial and Daniel James thrive in counter-attacking situations. They are likely to get plenty of chances to demonstrate their skill in this regard against a side like Man City, but less so when they come up against Newcastle or West Ham, who will invariably stick 11 men behind the ball and leave minimal space for their opponents to exploit.
But even allowing for these caveats, you would back a City side at their best to beat Man United.
Yet lately, there are plenty of signs that the Etihad outfit are not maintaining the levels of seasons past.
They have lost three and drawn two of their 15 games so far this season. Defence has been an obvious problem. They have clean sheets in just five top-flight matches.
They have conceded 17 goals, an inferior record than rivals Leicester (9) and Liverpool (14). By comparison, in the entirety of last season, just 23 goals were scored against them.
They have been affected by the departure of club legend Vincent Kompany and the loss of key player Aymeric Laporte to a serious knee injury. The latter is still likely to be out for another six-to-eight weeks.
In their absence, whatever variation they’ve opted for from John Stones, Nicolas Otamendi and Fernandinho have seldom convinced.
There have been questions asked too of some of their attackers. In terms of goals scored, the figures are still relatively strong — 43 is better than either Liverpool (37) or Leicester (35), though those figures have been substantially inflated by the standalone 8-0 win over Watford.
Yet there is widespread agreement that City no longer defend so intensively from the front as they once did, a change expertly highlighted by Gary Neville and Jamie Carragher on a recent edition of Monday Night Football.
For all their exceptional attack play, off-the-ball work has always been an equally invaluable quality of any Pep Guardiola-managed team.
“Without the ball these players are top quality,” he told Monday Night Football. “I try to convince them to run like the most humble team in the world.
“If they don’t do that they don’t play – they sit beside me on the bench. I can forgive everything – but if they don’t run, they don’t play.
“You have to run in football. People say a lot of things. Our physicality is always good. That is one of our secrets – more than tactics, spirit. you try to run.”
Attackers including Kevin de Bruyne, Bernardo Silva and David Silva were all near the top of the charts in the running stats last season.
It’s clear from watching the club this season, however, that they are not consistently demonstrating the level of sharpness or intensity that was routinely evident in their game last year.
The factors for this issue are multiple. It would be difficult to pinpoint anyone in the team who has reached their optimal level this season.
Age is also surely an issue. Sergio Aguero is 31, David Silva is 33, Otamendi is 31, Fernandinho is 34. That’s a core of the team who must be now at least coming to the end of their prime.
Consider, by contrast, Liverpool’s key players: Alisson (27), Van Dijk (28), Fabinho (26), Sadio Mane and Mo Salah (both 27).
The Reds look like a team with more energy and hunger, as they bid to win the league for the first time since 1990.
While it would be foolish to rule them out at what is still a relatively early stage of the season, should they fail to pick up a trophy, questions will inevitably be asked about whether City are coming to the end of their cycle.
By the conclusion of this season, Guardiola will have managed City for four years. By comparison, he lasted three years at Bayern and four with Barca’s senior team.
Whatever the outcome of the 2019-20 title race, you would suspect that should the acclaimed manager stay put, next year he will need to start a major rebuilding process if City are to meet the lofty expectations perennially associated with them.
When you think of the individual perceived by most as the greatest manager in Premier League history, Alex Ferguson, part of his success was due to a sheer ruthlessness in casting aside big-name players.
When you think of the Ferguson era, you remember three or four great teams that were swiftly dismantled and overhauled at the first sign of failure. Even the players who stayed for a long time — such as Ryan Giggs or Paul Scholes — saw their roles evolve and game time dissipate substantially as the years progressed.
It remains to be seen whether Guardiola even has the desire to stick around for the long haul at City, with plenty of evidence suggesting he might prefer a change of scenery rather than risk outstaying his welcome and allowing a sense of staleness to creep into proceedings.
In modern-day football, every manager seems to have a relatively short lifespan. Ferguson was the exception rather than the rule. Mauricio Pochettino lasting just over five years at Spurs actually felt unusually long in comparison to most.
Should Guardiola opt to stay though and see out a couple more years, he must start to phase out the older players. Sooner rather than later, he will need his equivalent of Man United’s 1995-96 season, prior to which experienced players like Paul Ince, Mark Hughes and Andrei Kanchelskis were sold, allowing several of the Class of ’92 stars to establish themselves in the first team.
Whether the likes of Phil Foden and Gabriel Jesus step up or more big-money investment will be required is unclear, but it seems increasingly obvious that change of some sort is needed at the Etihad.
Upcoming fixtures (all matches kick off at 3pm unless stated otherwise):
Saturday
Everton v Chelsea (12.30)
Bournemouth v Liverpool
Tottenham v Burnley
Watford v Crystal Palace
Man City v Man United (17.30)
Sunday
Aston Villa v Leicester (14.00)
Newcastle v Southampton (14.00)
Norwich v Sheffield United (14.00)
Brighton v Wolves (16.30)
Monday
West Ham v Arsenal (20.00)
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