IF MANCHESTER UNITED are to have any hope of ending City’s treble bid this afternoon (3pm kick-off, live on BBC One), the midfield is the one area where Erik ten Hag needs to get the balance absolutely perfect.
This position is one where the Dutch coach has made a number of changes throughout the season.
Casemiro, Scott McTominay, Fred, Christian Eriksen, Marcel Sabitzer, Bruno Fernandes and even (very occasionally) Donny van de Beek have been tried there.
Fernandes usually occupies one of the more advanced midfield roles, while Wout Weghorst has even been tried as a number 10.
Given how frequently it changes, it is tempting to ask whether, as his first season comes to an end, Ten Hag actually knows his best midfield yet.
Yet perhaps a better question to ask is whether Ten Hag knows his best midfield for any given situation.
After all, United’s wisest selection for a match against City is not necessarily the best personnel to employ against a weaker, more defensive team that they are expected to dominate.
One key question is whether the Red Devils can accommodate both Bruno Fernandes and Christian Eriksen, two attacking, creative players not exactly renowned for hard-running and off-the-ball defensive work, in today’s match.
Whether anything can be read into their last Premier League match of the season, a relatively low-stakes 2-1 win over Fulham, is debatable.
On that occasion, Ten Hag’s side started with Casemiro and Fred behind Fernandes, while Eriksen wasn’t introduced until the 67th minute.
You could argue the lineup was a dress rehearsal for the final, or that Ten Hag believed the 31-year-old Eriksen simply needed a rest ahead of the much bigger game to come
United, though, have generally achieved better results with Eriksen in the starting XI, as outlined here, and badly missed the Dane during his substantial spell out injured earlier this season.
Perhaps tellingly, Fernandes and Eriksen started both Premier League fixtures against City this season, and Ten Hag will definitely have learned plenty from similarly dramatic these occasions.
In the first match, an embarrassing 6-3 Etihad defeat that was even more one-sided than the scoreline suggests, Ten Hag seemingly attempted to go toe-to-toe with City.
Eriksen played as a sitting midfielder alongside Scott McTominay with Fernandes ahead of them.
Along with the rest of the team, the Danish international struggled to combat their opponents’ swift counter-attacks and the hosts ran riot as a result.
In the Old Trafford encounter, by contrast, Ten Hag picked Casemiro and Fred as the two sitting midfielders, with Eriksen ahead of them and Fernandes pushed out wide.
Deploying two players in the defensive roles who are primarily concerned with stopping the opposition could be regarded as Ten Hag compromising his attacking ideals, nonetheless, it worked on the day.
One interesting stat is that United actually had nearly as much possession as City (46%) during the 6-3 defeat at the Etihad, whereas at Old Trafford, the visitors had 71% of the ball but still lost 2-1.
It would indicate that United’s best route to success is to sit back and allow City to dictate play while attempting to hit their rivals on the counter-attack.
At the very least, their focus should be on staying in the game. They were down 4-0 by half-time in their first encounter this season, while in the second match, they managed to keep City out until the hour mark.
By that point, most people expected the reigning champions to cruise to a comfortable win, but an unexpected late flurry encompassing goals from Fernandes and Marcus Rashford (in controversial fashion) in the 78th and 82nd minute saw United pull off an unlikely turnaround.
That starting defensive midfield of Casemiro and Fred is by no means a guarantee of success, however. After all, the same two players featured from the outset in the 7-0 hammering by Liverpool back in March.
That game was slightly more freakish than the City match when you consider that initially it was relatively evenly fought — the fixture was a scoreless contest for the first 42 minutes with both sides creating chances before United completely collapsed after the break.
That was one of the instances where they patently missed the injured Eriksen. On that occasion, Wout Weghorst started in the position that the Dane occupied in the win over City and suffice to say, it is not an experiment United have regularly reverted to since.
And it’s why Eriksen may be given the nod to feature in today’s cup final. While he doesn’t bring a huge amount in terms of physicality and defensive prowess, his vision and comfort on the ball take pressure off the club’s defenders for a longer period while keeping the opposition on edge amid the fear that he is capable of producing something special at any given moment. He is joint-top in the assists charts for United this season alongside Fernandes with eight, although the Portuguese international has played in 37 games — nine more than Eriksen (while De Bruyne has as many assists as both players combined).
Another interesting question is how City will line up.
Rodri missed the 6-3 match through injury, while he was the only change to their midfield in the 2-1 loss, replacing Ilkay Gundogan, with Kevin De Bruyne and Bernardo Silva starting on both occasions.
Yet perhaps Guardiola will be tempted to repeat the formation that worked so well in the 4-0 victory over Real Madrid.
On that occasion, he gave the central defence extra protection by playing at box midfield, with John Stones and Rodri sitting behind Kevin De Bruyne and Ilkay Gundogan while Bernardo Silva was pushed to a wider right position than normal.
Either way, whatever happens, the onus will certainly be on United to contain City and stop them from playing — it is virtually impossible to think of any other way the Red Devils can upset the odds and claim the FA Cup for a 13th time.
Man City possible XI: Ortega; Walker, Dias, Akanji; Stones, Rodri; Gundogan, De Bruyne, Silva, Grealish; Haaland.
Man United possible XI: De Gea; Wan-Bissaka, Varane, Lindelof, Shaw; Casemiro, Fred; Sancho, Eriksen, Fernandes; Rashford.
